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Wed Jan 20, 2016, 11:41 AM

 

Think Tank calls for U. S. to force Russia into an agreement with Turkey

Last edited Wed Jan 20, 2016, 12:48 PM - Edit history (1)

The conservative-oriented intelligence firm, Stratfor (often referred to as a "Shadow CIA" because of many former intelligence agency people who work for it) has released a new report which calls for increased U. S. "pressure" on Russia to compromise with Turkish ambitions concerning bordering areas of Northern Syria and Kurdish Iraq. Basically these arguments suggest that the Russian Federation is so weakened now from our economic sanctions that by stationing more troops in Eastern Europe, increasing support for Ukraine's hard line on its breakaway regions and sending greater American naval forces into the Black Sea, the West will be able to make Russia abandon its ally Syria and allow Turkey's expansionist dreams to be realized. How this rather dubiously likely outcome would be all that good for the United States is not made very clear.




Vice President Biden meets with Turkish President Erdogan in Istanbul, Nov. 2014.


'Shadow CIA' Explains How US Can 'Force' Moscow to Negotiate With Ankara

If the US wants to destroy the threat of Daesh (ISIL/ISIS) terrorism in the Middle East once and for all, "the discussion begins and ends with Turkey," Stratfor suggests. Specifically, Washington will have to attempt to force Russia to the negotiating table with Turkey on managing the Syrian crisis, using the veiled threat of increasing NATO's presence in the Black Sea.

"The United States is already working with predominantly Kurdish rebel factions east of the Euphrates River in northern Syria and with Iraqi forces along the Iraq-Syria border to try to strangle the Islamic State in Raqqah. But the United States needs a lot of assistance from Turkey west of the Euphrates to tie the noose. Turkey," Stratfor notes, "is prepared to commit ground troops to an operation in northern Syria especially after last week's suicide bombing."

However, the think tank cautions, "the chief complication is Russia. Following the November downing of a Russian warplane by Turkish forces, Russia's air defense buildup in Syria, paired with a direct threat to shoot down any aerial targets that could threaten Russian aircraft in Syria, has complicated Turkey's military planning." And maybe that's for the best. Perhaps Stratfor's strategic brainstorming hasn't left much time to check the news, but the reality on the ground, as Syrian Kurdish commanders on the frontline in the fight against Daesh have repeatedly complained, is that Turkish army and intelligence operations in their country seemed to have focused all their their energies on attacking Kurdish forces and providing support for 'moderate' rebels including al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front and Ahrar ash-Sham, instead of fighting Daesh.

(snip)

In other words, Stratfor seems to argue, Washington could force Moscow to compromise on Syria by threatening a buildup in the Black Sea. But with Turkey already demonstrating what such a 'compromise' would entail (i.e. attacks against Syrian Kurds and support for anti-Assad rebels), the only question the think tank should be asking itself is: How likely is Russia to abandon its regional ally for the sake of a flimsy verbal guarantee from a Western military alliance which has broken almost every promise it has ever made to Moscow?

(snip)



Read more at: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160120/1033418702/turkey-russia-us-stratfor-analysis.html

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