A prediction. I think tRump will crater in Iowa

[cali]

It's not only the large evangelical vote and his reported lack of ground game, I suspect many of his fans there won't caucus.

Here's the prediction: tRump will come in third.

Feel free to mock me mercilessly if I'm proven wrong.

[randr]

1. BWOT

Big waste of Time is the new Trump mantra.

[yellowcanine]

2. This seems like a safe prediction.

Certainly the anecdotes about the kind of people showing up at Trump rallies would suggest that. They don't seem like people who would go out of their way (which one has to do) for a caucus in the middle of the winter.

[pampango]

3. Hope you're right. Though that may mean a big victory for Cruz: frying pan - fire.

If Trump somehow pulls off a win in Iowa, he is way ahead in New Hampshire and figures to do well in South Carolina and other southern states, that won't be good for sure.

I can't bring myself to root for Cruz or Rubio in Iowa but I'll be happy if you are right about Trump.

[cali]

5. right, but getting rid of the incoherent babbling megalomaniac would

be nothing but good news.

[leftynyc]

4. I don't know, Cali

I look at the crowds he's able to get - thousands waiting in cold, terrible weather. He's captured something and he plans on riding it all the way to the white house. Between the birther thing with cruz and this new undisclosed loan thing, cruz is losing more support in IA every single day (trump is already way ahead in NH and SC). I just don't see who knocks him off. Besides, being political junkies, we already know IA is meaningless - especially for the gop - the last two winners were Santorum and Huckabee - all trump has to do is ignore the results if he doesn't win - 8 days later is NH where he is way ahead. The nomination is Trump's.

[cali]

6. The ground game is critical.

Donald Trump's front-running campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination seems to be sputtering more than roaring in the crucial early-contest state of Iowa.

A new report published Wednesday by The New York Times paints a picture of a disorganized, light-staffed campaign in the state where voters will caucus on Feb. 1.

The lackluster effort appears to be hinging not so much on a grassroots, get-out-the-vote effort as on Trump's ability to draw thousands of Iowans to his rallies across the state

Trump and Cruz are virtually tied in Iowa, according to a new poll published Wednesday by Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register. The poll put Cruz at 25 percent and Trump at 22 - within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The Times report said some volunteers drafted by Trump's campaign are reluctant to knock on doors when weather is too cold - a guarantee in the Midwest during wintertime.

There are also poorly vetted volunteers, such as one man who runs a Web site claiming that the September 2011 terrorist attacks were part of a government conspiracy - something the volunteer has been told not to mention when calling prospective voters.
Perhaps most disturbingly, there is a simple lack of numbers and, apparently enthusiasm, according to the Times report. Trump, a billionaire real estate tycoon, has only funded a bare-bones staff of more than a dozen paid staffers.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3398390/Trump-s-Iowa-ground-game-falters-organizers-include-9-11-truther-webmaster-people-won-t-knock-doors-cold.html#ixzz3xEZl71Cn
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[leftynyc]

7. I understand what the article

is saying and he may lose IA but I don't see that, in any way, stopping him from getting the nomination. Yes, it'll allow the other dwarfs to call him a loser - for 8 days - and that's it. IA is simply not predictive (for the gop). I really feel it's a done deal - trump is going to be the gop nominee. How the gop establishment handles that makes me want to invest in popcorn futures. As an aside, I've detested cruz since he came on my radar and I'm enjoying that his sucking up to donald all primary season has gotten him nothing but being eaten last. I love his being taken down by his own party and since he's burned every bridge he's ever crossed, there is nobody to defend him. THAT is delicious.