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Sun Dec 27, 2015, 06:16 PM

Donald Trumpís Six Stages Of Doom

Some common sense remarks from Nate Silver ...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

The recent polling surge by Donald Trump has launched a thousand stories about Trumpís ďunprecedented campaign.Ē But itís nothing all that unusual: Similar surges occurred for almost every Republican candidate four years ago, including Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich (twice).

Historyís lesson isnít necessarily that Trumpís candidacy will go bust tomorrow, however. There are plenty of examples of fringe or factional candidates who held on to their support for much longer than the month or two that Cain and Bachmann did. Sometimes, they did well enough in Iowa or New Hampshire, or even won them. Pat Buchanan claimed New Hampshire in 1996, for instance, while Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008. Steve Forbes took 30 percent of the Iowa vote in 2000.

The lesson, rather, is that Trumpís campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination.


Much more at the link.

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Reply Donald Trumpís Six Stages Of Doom (Original post)
BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 OP
House of Roberts Dec 2015 #1
Gothmog Dec 2015 #2
BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #3

Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 06:18 PM

1. I'm all for him holding off failing until the general.

As long as he fails by then, it's all right with me.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 06:27 PM

2. This is a great article

I love Nate Silver and I hope that he is correct here
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #2)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 06:28 PM

3. Keeping my fingers crossed

as well as working hard for my candidate.

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