Jeb?

[teach1st]

I'm in a political discussion elsewhere, and it has turned to the train wreck of Republican candidates for presidency. I don't see how any of them can get traction because they're all so flawed, but then I'm not that politically astute. Anyway, I have a question. What are the chances of Jeb Bush being drafted at the convention? I don't see a way for Republicans to win short of that (and I'm not sure of Jeb's chances) with their awful field of candidates.

I'm a Floridian, and the thought of Jeb Bush as president is very scary because I think he is more viable than the clown posse. Is Jeb a possibility or am I being paranoid?

[Fire Walk With Me]

1. Jeb is a possibility. And I can't wait to watch him go down in flames

as have the rest.

[elleng]

2. Been waiting for him

[The Traveler]

3. Don't think he'll do it

He would have too little time to put together a ground game. And Jeb Bush is far too smart to step into a mess like this. Speaking of messes, the country is still too screwed up from his brother's tenure and he would rather someone else do the heavy lifting before he comes in.

[DonCoquixote]

11. time for ground game

Sorry to say, but the ground game started when he supported Rubio. Let nothing foll ye, he is already cocked, loaded and ready to go, as all the GOP will bow to him in this state, which the GOP powerbrokers know they need, and they will get reminded why in Tampa. Literally, the only thing that can stop him in Florida is not out PATHETIC Florida democrats, but the tea party, which already bloodied jeb's nose by putting in Governor Rick Scott.

[DesertRat]

4. I think that it's a definite (and scary) possibility.

[SugarShack]

5. Jeb Bush will not get elected president. EVER

[Kahuna]

28. +1 nt

[Angry Dragon]

6. He is a maybe

[cthulu2016]

7. Why not Jeb's father? He can still serve another term.

[Tx4obama]

16. George H.W. Bush was born June 12, 1924 - He will be 88 years old next year :) n/t

[TlalocW]

8. I think they've been putting out feelers

They were robo-calling in New Hampshire asking voters what they thought of some of the candidates as well as Jeb, but I think they're looking for a really big opening in order to push Jeb into the fray, and as stupid and horrible as the current crop of GOP candidates have been, it's not enough for 2012. Jeb is going to try in 2016. His personal ego demands it (he was supposed to be president not W); the family "honor" demands it (W. has run the Bush name into the ground, we've hurt Senior's feelings by criticizing both W and Jeb, and Jeb needs to rescue the brand and make poppy feel better); the criminal aspect of the Bush family demands it (probably a few left-over puppets set up by Reagan-Bush that need to be dealt with still). I think the Bush brand will still be too toxic in 2016, but you never know.

TlalocW

[Summer Hathaway]

9. Just a gut feeling

and I could be totally off base, but I think the GOP don't want voters to be reminded of the last Bush administration. Therefore, the name alone is toxic.

They have spent the last three years framing Obama and the Democrats as being over-spenders responsible for the deficit, along with all kinds of (mostly economic) ills.

To put another Bush out there would be to invite, subconsciously or otherwise, a remembrance of the man who actually DID plunge the country into debt.

Pushing the Bush brand at this point would be an open invitation for the Dems to use the "guilt by association" tactic, and reiterate every negative thing about the LAST time someone of that family was in the WH.

Additionally, they've seen how quick the Democrats have been to dredge up the skeletons in the closets of the current Klown Kar wannabes. Jeb's closet is a virtual graveyard, skeleton-wise - and they know it.

There are also those GOPer PTB that believe Jeb will have a clear shot in 2016, when (they hope) enough time has passed for people to forget what a disaster W was. They'll wait it out.

[zappaman]

10. 2016

Bank on it.
They are counting on the American people to remember the brand name and not the damage this family has caused to the U.S.
The scary thing is he might have a good chance.
Ugh.

[Sherman A1]

21. Precisely

They will run Romney this year as a placeholder. In the next one it's an open seat election.

[DeathToTheOil]

30. "They are counting on the American people"

Yes.

[teach1st]

12. Thanks for all of the comments, everybody

In addition to the above, it may be that less insane members of the Republican party realize that any candidate running in this cycle has to court the Tea Party and that it's clearly political suicide to hitch one's wagon to a team of crazed horses. Maybe that explains the current group of Republican candidates - they are throwaways, something to fill the space until 2016 (at the risk of severe damage to their party), which is when the Republican party will get more serious. Maybe by then Jeb will still be too toxic to put on the national stage.

[BeHereNow]

13. Funny, my brother and I just had this conversation tonight.

I think Jeb is a very real possibility. My brother concurs.
I don't think we have seen the REAL GOP candidate.
The current crop clearly fell out of a clown car and none can
be taken seriously. I think that is deliberate.
Present the public with a gang of clowns as candidates
and then, at the last moment, pull out someone who could
seriously be seen as a contender in the race.
I will not be surprised if that "someone" is Jeb.
God help us all.
BHN

[iemitsu]

14. i have thought this too, teach1st.

i sure hope it is not the plan.

[BeHereNow]

15. I think it may very well be the plan, unfortunately.

I think the same people who thought GWB and Cheney were the best thing
to ever happen to American would turn out in droves to vote for another Bush,
JUST to see the "black man" turned out of the White House.
Really, think about the strategic brilliance of it.
Disturbing thought? YES.
Possible strategy of the Rovian ilk?
Absolutely.

BHN

[BeHereNow]

17. K&R because I think it is a very real possibility that we should discuss!

I don't think we have seen the REAL contender for the presidency
and I don't find it at all paranoid to bring Jeb into the conversation
about just who they are planning to run.
We KNOW none of the bozos on stage can be serious contenders,
so just WHO do they have up there sleeve, OR are they
planning on letting Obama take all the blame for four more years
and THEN trotting out a new pony to "fix" the mess they will blame on Obama?
I am sincerely interested to hear what others think on the subject.
BHN

[Golden Raisin]

18. You are not being paranoid.

Jeb is certainly a possibility. The Bush Family is not done with America.

[hifiguy]

31. They never will be, as long as there is anything

left to steal.

[NBachers]

19. Why run Jeb this year, which is a throwaway presidential year for the repubes

2016:

1. Further away from brother W's disaster- take advantage of the American voter's short attention span, build more lies

2. I think the repuke losses this cycle will mean that the teabaggers have peaked, and their wad will be shot by the end of Obama's second term.

3. Jeb will have a more even footing with whoever we Democrats run in 2016 than he has now with Obama

4. He'll have more time to build alliances and recruit support.

5. The current state of the repuke party is fractured. By 2016, he'll be able to draw all the current candidates in line to support him. With the teabaggers spent and the candidates behind Jeb, reslugs will revert back to their authoritarian, top-down structure of disciplined anal obedience. Rove is lurking and can be brought back out for the 2016 cycle.

6. If the cycle of natural, economic, and social disasters continues to worsen, the population will be ripe for a "strongman" fascist candidate.

7. This means the Occupation of the Democratic Party needs to be in place and able to handle the 2016 elections- they'll be tough. And we need to create a fair and transparent voting system. If it weren't for cheating, republicans would hardly ever win.

[BeHereNow]

20. #3- Very good point.

I think your analysis of the situation is very well thought out.

BHN

[snot]

33. +1

[rhett o rick]

22. I think the key is Karl Rove. Keep an eye on him.

He can easily destroy any of the clown posse. But why would he if Jeb wasnt running. Why would Karl's handlers care which clown became the candidate?

[Ship of Fools]

23. Nah ... too much Bush fatigue.

[KaryninMiami]

24. Good possibility that he will be drafted to run at the convention

And, a very good possibility that he will win. Between the millions being disenfranchised as we speak - millions will have huge problems trying to vote this year (poor people and elderly mostly) and rigged electronic voting machines that 88% of the country will be voting on (if it's a machine it can, has and will be rigged again) so that means we'll loose about 3 points overall. So, unless Obama has a landslide (a margin of at least 5 points), whoever it is will win. Jeb has a better chance then Romney- in spite of the Bush name because he is more viable then the clown posse as you point out. And he will have a LOT of big league GOP money behind him- the ones who cannot stomach Romney, the ones who are afraid of Paul and the rest who know that Gingrich is a piece of shit (even Repugs don't like or trust him).

Here in Florida, Jeb is still remembered as having been a great governor by quite a lot of folks - this is after all, a purple state including some on both teams who are disgusted with Scott who has managed to rile up both parties against him. Jeb however is still the golden child for the right here in FL.

Terrifying and true (IMO).

[Motown_Johnny]

25. he swears he isn't running

Besides the Bush name is still so damaged that he can't just ride his father's coattails the way Shrub did.

Running Jeb means we can run against Bush, again.

I don't think any (R) wants to let us do that.


Chris Christie has a better chance of jumping in at the convention than Jeb does. Jeb may be more viable than the clown posse but he isn't the most viable (R) who could jump in at that point.

[Hart2008]

26. More likely Jeb repeats Poppy's VP role, running the show behind the scenes for Mitt the Twitt.

I don't think the public wants another Bush presidency now, but Jeb could sneak in as VP. Most people don't vote for the VP. Romney could be another Reagan: an image only president with no idea what is really going on in his administration.

Yes, it is scary.

[yellowcanine]

39. A Bush as VP would be a drag on the Romney ticket.

And Romney cannot have any drags on the ticket. Christie is more likely as one of the Pubbie's fresher, newer white knights.

[HughBeaumont]

27. Any real chance this guy has will be destroyed by even simple DNC/independent ads.

Opening montage - Bush vs Gore/"Decision" 2000, where Democracy was bypassed in favor of an agenda.

Then, in succession:
Passage of tax cuts for the wealthy.
9/11.
"Axis of Evil".
Afghanistan.
Iraq "Shock and Awe".
"I don't know where he is".
"Mission Accomplished".
The Abu Ghraib Fiasco.
Guantanamo Fiasco.
New Orleans.
The National Debt Clock skyrocketing.
2008 Financial Collapse.
Hank Paulsen.
TARP.

Closing photo of a dumb-looking Jeb (which shouldn't be that hard to find) with the caption:

"Do you really want to go through this again, America?"

. . . . while this sound bite is played on the voice-over:

"You fool me . .. you can't get fooled again . . "

[MineralMan]

29. Speculating?

I doubt it very much.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

32. Poppy Bush wouldn't endorse Romney

if he believed that it was a strong possibility that Jeb would run IMHO. Plus, the GOP establishment seems to now be closing ranks around Romney. I think Romney is their guy. Now, the only question that remains IMHO is what will happen with the teabaggers. Will they fall in line, albeit very reluctantly, with a seemingly inevitable Romney nomination? Will they rebel and try to get one of their candidates nominated (or at least make their support of Romney contingent upon him giving the VP slot to one of their preferred candidates) or will enough of them decide to support an insurgent candidate (i.e. Trump) against Romney (should he be nominated)? We will definitely be in for some interesting times.

[grantcart]

35. The problems with Romney is that while his support is very wide it still is thin.

Last edited Wed Dec 28, 2011, 01:19 AM - Edit history (1)

He may get the highest marks against Obama but it is very very thin.

Last year he went to Utah to support Bennett and was booed off the stage.

But much more importantly for the Republicans is that the Protestant base, not just Evangelicals but Pentacostals and mainline Protestants may vote for him but they will NOT phone bank or donate heavily to him.

Already Romney has the highest percentage of donors who have already donated the maximum.

For this reason Romney is, ironically, our best hope for increasing House and Senate seats because he will put the base asleep, while one of the crazier candidates, like Perry, would be better for us against Obama but cause us more problems regaining the House or saving the Senate because he would get more of the base involved in the election.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

40. Good points

I think that he is who the establishment is rallying around at this point and he seems more likely than not to ultimately capture the nomination and I look forward to the debates between him and Obama next year. I agree with you that he is likely to put his base to sleep but I'm wondering if he might do the same to ours? A Gingrich, Perry, Santorum, et. al would definitely electrify our base as it would the GOP base. I just worry that, with Romney appearing to be more moderate if he might draw in some low-information voters as well? Also, I wonder if having Romney on the ballot might depress those "No difference between the two major parties" voters?
That's why I think that what we need the most is for President Obama and Democrats to run a more broad campaign against the GOP Tea Party and their extremist ideology that ANY of the eventual GOP nominees would be ultimately beholden to and would be pressured to support, particularly if *gulp* the entire Congress goes Mad Republican Tea Party.

[grantcart]

34. My guess is Daniels/McDonnell holding Jeb back to 2016

http://www.democraticunderground.com/100252986

[WI_DEM]

36. Too soon--and the Bushies know it.

they had to wait 8-years between Poppie and junior and it will be 2016 before they run Jeb.

[sellitman]

37. Why is his name constantly dredged up ?

He has more skeletons in his closet than Gingrich.

The only candidate I fear is Huntsman.

He is the only half way sane one.

[yellowcanine]

38. Nope - Thanks to W that well is poisoned - permanently.