The Fear of the Fear Mongers

In recent years the Republican base has made accommodations with the Party establishment as well. They have supported more moderate establishment Republicans such as John McCain and Mitt Romney over the strongly conservative candidates they preferred because they were told over and over again that more moderate candidates like McCain and Romney were “more electable”. Since that strategy has not worked well recently, the ultra conservatives have become increasingly frustrated.

They have become even more frustrated with the inability of the Republican Senators and Representatives, who now control both houses of Congress, to move the country to the right as expected, even though that was actually not possible to this point. Their frustration has boiled over in this Presidential nomination cycle into an actual revolt. The message the Republican base seems to be sending the establishment is, “Okay, we played it your way and that hasn’t worked. You have failed in your leadership role so you are not in charge anymore. This time we are going to vote for the candidates who best speak for us instead of supporting your establishment favorites because of their electability.”

The rift between Republican Party factions has escalated into an all out war with the radicals having taken over the megaphone. It’s basically the blue collar Republicans and the Tea Partiers battling it out with business oriented Republicans for the soul of the Party. The word got out recently that the Republican leaders are hoping for a contested national convention where no one candidate has enough support to secure the nomination in the first round of voting. Then when delegates are released from their obligations to support specific candidates, the convention would revert to back room deals which might be used to elect a more “acceptable” nominee. Carson and Trump instantly responded to those rumors with threats that they would leave the party (and run as third party candidates) if anyone tries to “subvert the will of the people”. Everyone knows that such a desertion would assure the Democrats of victory in November.

The Grand Old Party has indeed split into two warring factions. The only thing that still holds the two together is the realization by both sides that if they split up, neither could be a real force on the national political stage alone. But what about the future? Will the two sides eventually reconcile and patch over their differences? Or are we looking at a splintered and ineffective Republican Party for the foreseeable future?