How Do You Explain Ben Carson's Success in Iowa?

[n2doc]

By Charles P Pierce

​There is before us now yet more evidence that, especially on the Republican side, giving pride of place to Iowa in our nominating process is a truly terrible idea since, especially on the Republican side, the Iowa caucuses are a ridiculous system weighted toward increasingly ridiculous people. The most recent Iowa Poll, the gold standard in such matters, bears this out to a frightening extent.

The headline is that Dr. Ben Carson has surged past Donald Trump among likely caucus-goers. But it is more than worth your while to scroll down a bit. You may have noticed that Dr. Ben, despite having a voice that could anesthetize small rodents, has ideas that fairly scream, "Bananas Crazy!" The Iowa Poll people decided to run some numbers on that very question. Here are the results.

I'm going to mention some things people have said about Ben Carson. Regardless of whether you support him for president, please tell me for each if this is something that you find very attractive about him, mostly attractive, mostly unattractive, or very unattractive.

​And we're off.

Ben Carson has said that the Affordable Care Act is the worst thing to happen to America since slavery, and 55 percent of Iowans polled think this opinion makes him "very attractive." If you add in the "mostly attractive" results, then 81 percent of the people polled think he's right on the money there.

Ben Carson has said that the Holocaust would have turned out differently had every Jewish person in Europe been armed, and 51 percent of Iowans polled think this opinion makes him "very attractive." If you add in the "mostly attractive" results, then 77 percent of the people polled like what he said.

And the cherry on top is the fact that an aggregate 96 percent of Iowans polled think Ben Carson "approaches issues with common sense."

Theoretically, democracy is a hell of an idea, isn't it? Can we just let the cows vote now?

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a39121/ben-carson-iowa-voters/

[gratuitous]

1. Republican voters are bone-stupid

Did I get it in one? Do I get a prize?

[yeoman6987]

32. And if he wins nomination, he has 50 percent chance of winning whole thing

Now that is a bit scary.

[TwilightGardener]

2. New shiny evangelical dude who hasn't been examined seriously yet.

[BillZBubb]

3. Easiest question of the day! Answerl: STUPIDITY

The right wing republican base is composed of morons. Willfully ignorant morons.

[mainstreetonce]

4. They voted for Santorum last time

They are trying to top that.

[KamaAina]

5. Too much Monsanto in the corn?

No, srsly. tRump actually tweeted that.

[restorefreedom]

24. love it!

despite the fact that it came from trump.

[Hortensis]

39. Maybe didn't. Notice he lacks a sense of humor?

Likely an assistant's offering.

[restorefreedom]

42. then he is lucky to have

smart imo assistants

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. wow. you have to admit - trump is ascerbic

[Hortensis]

38. LOL. Possibly, but I'm thinking too much Fox in the house.

Seriously. Most of these people don't actually believe all that stuff so much as they SUPPORT the side saying it.

Over the past three to four decades Fox and the rest of the right-wing media machine, using techniques first developed in advertising and considerably developed since, have turned most conservatives into knee-jerk protection/attack dogs.

That's why Rush always starts by saying something like "You'll never guess what the Democrats are up to now." The next lines will tell them what to attack and give them some handy catch phrases to use.

Note that most of Carson's followers are not just religious conservatives but authoritarian conservatives, which means they put their leader in charge of their conscience and let their leader worry about right and wrong for them. Weird but true.

[KamaAina]

49. The henhouse?

[NightWatcher]

6. Something funky in the gmo corn

To be fair, Iowa rarely picks a winner. Didn't last time they pick frothy Santorum?

[Aerows]

7. He hasn't won anything yet

so declarations of success are premature, imho.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. even if he does...who cares. Iowa means nothing anymore.

[procon]

8. msnbc just covered this

They attributed his rise to Iowa's large numbers of evangelical voters. Significantly, they also agreed with his cringe worthy statements.

[randys1]

9. Per letting the cows vote, we would not have to worry about braindead assholes like Trump

or brainy surgeons who are clueless about everything but their chosen field, if all Americans were allowed to vote.

If there was no unconstitutional voter ID laws on the books, there would be no chance the repub could win, none.

[frizzled]

10. A lot of Christians want Sharia Law. That's all there is to it.

nt

[Princess Turandot]

11. Evangelicals...

Santorum nosed out Romney in 2012 and Huckabee won in 2008, by 21 points over McCain.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Republicans

[etherealtruth]

44. Without doubt! n/t

[Rex]

12. Well they are the same people that voted for Santorum

and how did that turn out?

[Still Sensible]

13. I think they don't like the establishment GOP candidates

and want an alternative... they have decided they don't want Trump to be the alternative.

I expect they will tire of Dr. Idiot soon enough and, by the time they actually caucus, they'll shift toward someone like Kasich.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

14. He must be a supporter of gasohol.

E10, E85, now E15, they all raise the price of corn, causing all food prices to rise, and they divert food stock to energy. Big corporate win, big people loss.

[TheCowsCameHome]

15. Michelle Bachmann wasn't nutty enough.

[Zen Democrat]

16. The same way you explain that Pat Robertson once won the Iowa Caucus

[JCMach1]

17. Just look back over the Iowa winners on the Repug side....

that is all...

They are outside even the mainstream of their own party.

[MohRokTah]

18. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and Santorum won it in 2012.

Carson talks the talk of evangelical fundie nutjobs.

The evangelical fundie nutjobs haven't figured out he's a Seventh Day Adventist yet.

[SwankyXomb]

19. They're confusing him with Johnny Carson.

[missingthebigdog]

35. I think you are on to something.

Not Johnny Carson, though. I think people confuse him with Ben Cartwright.

I don't think most people are engaged enough in the election to be following things too closely. Someone calls and rattles off a list of names, Ben Carson sounds familiar. And vaguely comforting. Paternal. Trustworthy.

[0rganism]

20. high % of evangelicals in the Iowa Republican caucus

funny how they all complain about Sharia law, and then support the candidate who stands ready to enact it.

[BlueCheese]

21. Evangelicals, most likely.

Don't forget Huckabee won Iowa once, and Pat Robertson finished second another time, ahead of George H.W. Bush.

[kelliekat44]

22. Backlash agains Trump. nt

[AngryAmish]

23. Racism.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. Bingo.

[herding cats]

25. It's Iowa Republicans, the same fools who picked Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008.

They're out of touch with the vast majority of the voting Republicans in the country. The only reason they get any attention at all is simply because they're the first caucus/primary to take place. Beyond that, they're irrelevant to to the process of picking Republican presidential candidates as far as I can tell.

[Yavin4]

26. I'll let Gene Wilder answer your question

[oberliner]

30. More than half of Iowa Republican caucus-goers were evangelical Christians in 2012

In fact it was close to 60 percent.

Carson has the edge over Trump with that group (and is still an "outsider&quot

[Warpy]

31. I've found Iowa to be a better predictor of who needs to drop out

than who is most likely to win. After all, Huckabee won in 2008, didn't get the nomination. Santorum in 2012, didn't get the nomination. Republicans in Iowa now prefer the god addled Carson. Are we seeing a pattern here?

Unless Republicans are determined to run some religious dreamer who knows nothing about running a government, Carson is also doomed to failure, and I doubt the Koch boys want a religious dreamer unless they can find one who's as big a phony as Gee Dubya.

Of course, the many cracks in the Republican facade might just bring the whole edifice crashing down before or during their convention, it's happened to Hamiltonian parties before.

If it does, I hope the fistfights are televised.

[davidpdx]

41. Yes, on the Republican side I agree

There is a 0% chance that Trump will win Iowa. The state likes hard-core conservatives and while he is trying his best to play one, we all know it is an act. I think either Carson or Fiornia will win Iowa. Fiornia makes more sense since she has less of a chance of winning the nomination. Bush is going to have a poor showing there.

[elleng]

33. Something in the corn?

Monsanto?

[jberryhill]

34. Did they legalize growing hemp?

[Joanie Baloney]

36. I saw a report that it was a segment of women in Iowa that drove the Carson surge

They seemed to be in the middle 40's and up age range from the brief video I watched. My theory is that a) he's a doctor and b) he speaks in soothing tones.

Here's a brief snip from a Fortune article:

http://fortune.com/2015/10/23/ben-carson-donald-trump-iowa-poll-women/

A big boost in Carson’s support came from women, who helped push him ahead of Trump, and over two other trailing candidates, Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, both of whom are sitting U.S. senators. Hawk Eye voters had little interest in once evangelical favorites like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, both of whom are stuck in the political doldrums, according to polls, despite their Christian credentials.

The Des Moines Register poll’s findings came on the heels of another from Quinnipiac University, where women were sharply in favor of Carson over Trump, siding with him by 20 points, 33 to 13. Men were almost evenly split, with 25% backing Carson and 24% choosing Trump.

and here's the link to the actual Quinnipiac poll released yesterday:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia10222015_igv72sh.pdf


-JB

[Kalidurga]

37. it's Iowa

and I don't care who Republicans pick. I literally can't think of a worse Republican or a best Republican they are all equally good and bad.

[JI7]

40. he is doing well with women and evangelicals. i think it's the same reason Rick Santorum did Well

iowa conservatives like people with crazy right wing views but they don't want them to come off too rough, mean etc in terms of personality. Carson is soft spoken while Santorum came off as a nice friendly guy .

[kentuck]

43. I have a theory...

Most of his support comes from the evangelicals. But there is more to it.

There is a certain part of the Republican vote that wants to prove to the world that they are not racist and that they will support a black candidate for President. This is a big part of Ben Carson's appeal, in my opinion.

It has little to do with competence or the issues. The fact that Carson is supportive of the evangelical agenda and that he is black is sufficient for most primary voters in Iowa.

I doubt that there is much more than that...

[DCBob]

45. He is saying the right things and he is not a politician.

That seems to be all that is necessary to get some votes from many GOP primary voters.

I think some also think he will help them get some black votes in the general. I seriously doubt that but many Republicans are simple minded and think many black voters will only see his race and vote for him despite being a hard core conservative.

[n2doc]

46. Saying the right things?

WTF? The ACA is worse than slavery?

[DCBob]

47. Right meaning from a RW point of view.

Sorry for the confusion.

[spanone]

48. the iowa caucuses are the least relevant indicators in all of politics.

they should end this farce.