Tue Oct 6, 2015, 03:45 PM

TeddyR (2,493 posts)

WaPo Article Contends "Zero" Correlation Between State Gun Laws and State Homicide Rates

The WaPo has had a number of articles relating to gun control/violence since the shooting in Oregon. Eugene Volokh, a law professor at UCLA, had an opinion piece today in which he contends there is "zero correlation between state homicide rate and state gun laws." The article can be found here - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/10/06/zero-correlation-between-state-homicide-rate-and-state-gun-laws/.

He explains that his methodology examines whether states with more stringent gun laws have lower overall homicide rates -- not just gun homicides, but total homicides -- because if you enact strict gun laws and just see a rise in knife murders then you've not really made an overall difference. Anyway, I'm sure that this article won't sway one side or the other but found it interesting and the conclusion unsurprising.

The correlation between the homicide rate and Brady score in all 51 jurisdictions is +.032 (on a scale of -1 to +1), which means that states with more gun restrictions on average have very slightly higher homicide rates, though the tendency is so small as to be essentially zero. (If you omit the fatal gun accident rates, then the correlation would be +.065, which would make the more gun-restricting states look slightly worse; but again, the correlation would be small enough to be essentially zero, given all the other possible sources of variation.) If we use the National Journal data (adding the columns for each state, counting 1 for each dark blue, which refers to broad restrictions, 0.5 for each light blue, which refers to medium restrictions, and 0 for each grey, which refers to no or light restrictions), the results are similar: +0.017 or +0.051 if one omits the fatal gun accident rates. You can also run the correlation yourself on my Excel spreadsheet.

He concludes:

But since people have been talking about simple two-variable correlations between gun laws and crime, I thought it would be helpful to note this correlation — or, rather, absence of correlation.

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107 replies	Author	Time	Post
WaPo Article Contends "Zero" Correlation Between State Gun Laws and State Homicide Rates (Original post)	TeddyR	Oct 2015	OP
Fact	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#1
The fact is that, with our porous state borders, only gun control at the federal level will work.	PSPS	Oct 2015	#4
Explain then why the surrounding areas with more gun freedom have less violent crime?	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#6
What you're claiming is simply not true	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#9
Oh it's true. Your source includes suicide data.	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#20
You don't consider blowing	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#22
People like you are trying to convince folks...	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#25
All I've said is that I'm for	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#92
States aren't always the best for comparative analysis.	branford	Oct 2015	#37
Thats not what your link says.	beevul	Oct 2015	#65
Here's another chart that proves you wrong	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#17
See my earlier posts. n/t	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#31
Please don't let your facts get in the way	Nevernose	Oct 2015	#67
It's the dishonest	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#93
Rates are not absolute numbers.	beevul	Oct 2015	#68
Maybe you should try asking the right people.	Act_of_Reparation	Oct 2015	#53
Cool. But that's just your opinion.	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#54
It's a mistake to think of the two as distinct entities.	Act_of_Reparation	Oct 2015	#60
How about Gotham residents stop killing each other? n/t	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#61
How about teenagers stop having sex?	Act_of_Reparation	Oct 2015	#72
Ridiculous comparison.	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#74
The need to eat is a biological necessity.	Act_of_Reparation	Oct 2015	#95
"If Gothamites can't get guns in Gotham, then they'll get them from Green Acres."	Nuclear Unicorn	Oct 2015	#98
When the price is right.	Act_of_Reparation	Oct 2015	#103
"federal legislation that severely limits the availability...and makes the illicit trade prohibitive	Nuclear Unicorn	Oct 2015	#104
So, Detroit, Oakland and Baltimore have an extreme violence problem,	branford	Oct 2015	#8
The only restrictions	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#12
I believe we engaged in this discussion before, and yes, I support UBC's	branford	Oct 2015	#18
No - it'll never be passed	leftynyc	Oct 2015	#21
Wyoming has a higher per capita rate of gun deaths than	onenote	Oct 2015	#23
Wyoming has a higher per capita rate of gun deaths	TeddyR	Oct 2015	#56
It has a high suicide rate but low murder rate. Nt	hack89	Oct 2015	#76
How did Iowa get mixed up with this?	stone space	Oct 2015	#102
So everyone has to suffer because Chicago and Baltimore are out of control?	davidn3600	Oct 2015	#13
Define "suffer"	frylock	Oct 2015	#47
I wouldn't use the word "suffer"	TeddyR	Oct 2015	#57
Agreed. Gun crime is about poverty, gangs and drug trafficking	LittleBlue	Oct 2015	#32
Agreed.	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#34
I doubt the results, but fact is, people with gunz are intimidaters, quite often racists, more	Hoyt	Oct 2015	#58
Are the inner city black gang members who are shooting and killing	Snobblevitch	Oct 2015	#80
My opinion is that those buying most of the gunz are racists afraid of what	Hoyt	Oct 2015	#81
I forget,	Snobblevitch	Oct 2015	#82
You are the one that keeps mentioning inner city gangs in support of your gunz.	Hoyt	Oct 2015	#84
So you agree with my post?	Snobblevitch	Oct 2015	#85
White guys walking down the street with a gun on their hip in case mobs of	Hoyt	Oct 2015	#94
No surprise from "a leading conservative and libertarian legal theorist.."	villager	Oct 2015	#2
Volokh is cited all the time by people across the political spectrum, including SCOTUS,	branford	Oct 2015	#3
His analysis, is, of course, shaded by his vantage point going in.	villager	Oct 2015	#7
You can read his short blog post as well as I.	branford	Oct 2015	#10
You may be no Volokh yourself, to be sure, but here's how we can tell how disingenuous your posts	villager	Oct 2015	#15
So, I assume you have nothing to offer in substantive rebuttal to Volokh's analysis.	branford	Oct 2015	#26
Here's FactCheck.org on the AWB.	villager	Oct 2015	#28
After reading my entire post, in a general discussion about correlation between gun laws	branford	Oct 2015	#33
Your perceptions were to cherry pick what I meant.	villager	Oct 2015	#55
I could care less about the NRA.	branford	Oct 2015	#62
Again, you debase yourself	villager	Oct 2015	#64
And this is what the gun control movement has come down to.	GGJohn	Oct 2015	#69
I love this stuff	ryan_cats	Oct 2015	#11
The writer is a well-known right-leaning legal commentator.	villager	Oct 2015	#16
Did	ryan_cats	Oct 2015	#19
Don't	villager	Oct 2015	#24
Not a reply but a question	ryan_cats	Oct 2015	#78
Not really a question, but a snark.	villager	Oct 2015	#79
It's the efficiency stupid!!	loyalsister	Oct 2015	#5
If guns are as efficient as you claim, the correlation should be obvious, but it's not.	branford	Oct 2015	#14
10s of millions	loyalsister	Oct 2015	#27
So, your argument is that with gun control,	branford	Oct 2015	#29
Math	loyalsister	Oct 2015	#39
If the fatalities are lower without guns, other comparable western countries	branford	Oct 2015	#42
"other comparable western countries would have lower incidences of successful suicide attempts"	loyalsister	Oct 2015	#59
If the USA is not culturally comparable to these other western countries,	branford	Oct 2015	#63
The citizens of those countries care about the common good	loyalsister	Oct 2015	#66
Your solution to firearm violence and other issues in the USA	branford	Oct 2015	#75
I'm saying that if there was a little less	loyalsister	Oct 2015	#77
Eugene Volokh? Give me a fucking BREAK!	Paladin	Oct 2015	#30
Do you ever wonder why gun control is losing so badly in the courts, Congress and public opinion?	branford	Oct 2015	#35
It's not working any more. No wonder you people are terrified. (nt)	Paladin	Oct 2015	#36
Yea, I'm near catatonic with terror over the incoming wave of gun control...	branford	Oct 2015	#38
Which Democratic candidate are you backing for President? (nt)	Paladin	Oct 2015	#40
What does that have to do with the thread?	GGJohn	Oct 2015	#44
Who asked you for your lame-assed opinion?	Paladin	Oct 2015	#48
Maybe you missed it,	GGJohn	Oct 2015	#49
That wasn't an opinion, it was a statement of fact.	beevul	Oct 2015	#70
I am currently backing Bernie, but would probably switch to Biden if he runs.	branford	Oct 2015	#45
Terrified?	GGJohn	Oct 2015	#43
It's not working any more.	Paladin	Oct 2015	#50
What? The truth?	GGJohn	Oct 2015	#51
How would they even know if it was? N/T	beevul	Oct 2015	#71
Nonsense.	Donald Ian Rankin	Oct 2015	#106
You're entitled to your beliefs. (nt)	Paladin	Oct 2015	#107
Gun ownership rates	PowerToThePeople	Oct 2015	#41
Do you have a strategy to repeal the Second Amendment, 44 state equivalents,	branford	Oct 2015	#46
No, they don't.	Kang Colby	Oct 2015	#52
Quid pro quo	Kotya	Oct 2015	#97
And I'm the Queen of England. All hail the queen. n/t	Aerows	Oct 2015	#73
Stupid article, stupid premise. Stupid conclusion.	Spider Jerusalem	Oct 2015	#83
So, you're not allowed to count states with large violent cities	branford	Oct 2015	#86
Clearly there are other factors involved there than gun laws	Spider Jerusalem	Oct 2015	#87
Then discuss what particular factors you believe Volokh didn't consider,	branford	Oct 2015	#88
Urban poverty, gang violence, population density, a number of factors	Spider Jerusalem	Oct 2015	#90
Volokh doesn't claim to be a sociologist or criminologist.	branford	Oct 2015	#91
repuke agrees with the NRA	Skittles	Oct 2015	#89
Take away Volokh's grad degrees, reduce his vocabulary to 2nd-grade level:	Paladin	Oct 2015	#96
LOL	Skittles	Oct 2015	#105
This just means they need to be banned in all states.	geomon666	Oct 2015	#99
I think the problem is that the affect of gun laws is hidden by the fact that urban states have	karynnj	Oct 2015	#100
Eugene Volohk is a Libertarian hack	kcr	Oct 2015	#101

Response to TeddyR (Original post)

Tue Oct 6, 2015, 04:05 PM

Kang Colby (1,941 posts)

1. Fact

which means that states with more gun restrictions on average have very slightly higher homicide rates

Why is that so hard for gun control advocates to understand?

WaPo Article Contends "Zero" Correlation Between State Gun Laws and State Homicide Rates

1. Fact

4. The fact is that, with our porous state borders, only gun control at the federal level will work.

6. Explain then why the surrounding areas with more gun freedom have less violent crime?

9. What you're claiming is simply not true

20. Oh it's true. Your source includes suicide data.

22. You don't consider blowing

25. People like you are trying to convince folks...

92. All I've said is that I'm for

37. States aren't always the best for comparative analysis.

65. Thats not what your link says.

17. Here's another chart that proves you wrong

31. See my earlier posts. n/t

67. Please don't let your facts get in the way

93. It's the dishonest

68. Rates are not absolute numbers.

53. Maybe you should try asking the right people.

54. Cool. But that's just your opinion.

60. It's a mistake to think of the two as distinct entities.

61. How about Gotham residents stop killing each other? n/t

72. How about teenagers stop having sex?

74. Ridiculous comparison.

95. The need to eat is a biological necessity.

98. "If Gothamites can't get guns in Gotham, then they'll get them from Green Acres."

103. When the price is right.

104. "federal legislation that severely limits the availability...and makes the illicit trade prohibitive

8. So, Detroit, Oakland and Baltimore have an extreme violence problem,

12. The only restrictions

18. I believe we engaged in this discussion before, and yes, I support UBC's

21. No - it'll never be passed

23. Wyoming has a higher per capita rate of gun deaths than

56. Wyoming has a higher per capita rate of gun deaths

76. It has a high suicide rate but low murder rate. Nt

102. How did Iowa get mixed up with this?

13. So everyone has to suffer because Chicago and Baltimore are out of control?

47. Define "suffer"

57. I wouldn't use the word "suffer"

32. Agreed. Gun crime is about poverty, gangs and drug trafficking

34. Agreed.

58. I doubt the results, but fact is, people with gunz are intimidaters, quite often racists, more

80. Are the inner city black gang members who are shooting and killing

81. My opinion is that those buying most of the gunz are racists afraid of what

82. I forget,

84. You are the one that keeps mentioning inner city gangs in support of your gunz.

85. So you agree with my post?

94. White guys walking down the street with a gun on their hip in case mobs of

2. No surprise from "a leading conservative and libertarian legal theorist.."

3. Volokh is cited all the time by people across the political spectrum, including SCOTUS,

7. His analysis, is, of course, shaded by his vantage point going in.

10. You can read his short blog post as well as I.

15. You may be no Volokh yourself, to be sure, but here's how we can tell how disingenuous your posts

26. So, I assume you have nothing to offer in substantive rebuttal to Volokh's analysis.

28. Here's FactCheck.org on the AWB.

33. After reading my entire post, in a general discussion about correlation between gun laws

55. Your perceptions were to cherry pick what I meant.

62. I could care less about the NRA.

64. Again, you debase yourself

69. And this is what the gun control movement has come down to.

11. I love this stuff

16. The writer is a well-known right-leaning legal commentator.

19. Did

24. Don't

78. Not a reply but a question

79. Not really a question, but a snark.

5. It's the efficiency stupid!!

14. If guns are as efficient as you claim, the correlation should be obvious, but it's not.

27. 10s of millions

29. So, your argument is that with gun control,

39. Math

42. If the fatalities are lower without guns, other comparable western countries

59. "other comparable western countries would have lower incidences of successful suicide attempts"

63. If the USA is not culturally comparable to these other western countries,

66. The citizens of those countries care about the common good

75. Your solution to firearm violence and other issues in the USA

77. I'm saying that if there was a little less

30. Eugene Volokh? Give me a fucking BREAK!

35. Do you ever wonder why gun control is losing so badly in the courts, Congress and public opinion?

36. It's not working any more. No wonder you people are terrified. (nt)

38. Yea, I'm near catatonic with terror over the incoming wave of gun control...

40. Which Democratic candidate are you backing for President? (nt)