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Mon Sep 28, 2015, 10:59 PM

Why the Big Fuss over Trump?

It seemed that every time I turned a TV on over the last few days someone was interviewing, or was reporting on an interview they had done with Donald Trump. (Oh, everybody but Fox News because The Donald and the "Fair and Balanced" network currently have mutual "I don't want to talk to you" pack in place.)

The news jockeys must think that Trump is good for their ratings. They might also argue that he is in first place in all of the polls, but when polls cover 15 candidates and the leader pulls down only 20% to 30%, that's really not a big deal.

The people doing the polling generally include only Republicans or those likely to vote in Republican nomination process. A recent Pew Research poll determined that only 39% of the country's voters are Republican or Independents who lean Republican. So at most the people polled represent only 39% of all American Voters voters. In addition, the latest poll which was taken by NBC/WSJ shows Trump leading the Republican pack with only 21%.

It requires only simple arithmetic to understand how insignificant Trump's polling numbers really are. If you want to determine the percentage of all American voters who are favor Trump that are represented on the NBC/WSJ poll, you simply multiply 39% by 21%. So 0.39 X 0.21 = 0.082 or 8.2%. So the likely Republican voters who favored Trump on the latest poll represent only about 8% of all American voters.

So I ask again, why is it that Donald Trump is being treated as a major force in American politics?

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Arrow 9 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why the Big Fuss over Trump? (Original post)
CajunBlazer Sep 2015 OP
Art_from_Ark Sep 2015 #1
yeoman6987 Sep 2015 #2
CajunBlazer Sep 2015 #4
840high Sep 2015 #5
Laffy Kat Sep 2015 #3
Rex Sep 2015 #6
former9thward Sep 2015 #7
CajunBlazer Sep 2015 #8
Populist_Prole Sep 2015 #9

Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Mon Sep 28, 2015, 11:04 PM

1. In his own words, Donald Trump is rich, rich, rich,

and he is clearly distinguishing himself from the rest of the pack, even if it is as a bloviating Hulk Hogan wannabe.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Mon Sep 28, 2015, 11:10 PM

2. I guess he relates to people or they find him interesting

 

It is true that when he's on ratings increase. I don't get it but half the country is not a democratic voter.

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Response to yeoman6987 (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 29, 2015, 12:17 AM

4. Actually Trumps numbers are not increasing in the polls

The last 5 national polls by completion date:
9/19: 21%
9/21: 25%
9/21: 21%
9/22: 26%
9/24: 21%
At best his poll numbers aren't moving much, but his opponents are definitely getting closser.

Actually according to the Pew Research study 48% of the country's voters are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic. As I stated only 39% are Republicans or Independents who lean Republican - and that 39% are the only ones being polled about the Republican nomination process. That is is one of my points.

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Response to yeoman6987 (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 29, 2015, 12:22 AM

5. yep - 2 refreshing candidates are

 

appealing to people Sanders and Trump.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Mon Sep 28, 2015, 11:26 PM

3. The million dollar question.

He is obviously a pathological narcissist and delusional. He's not the least bit interesting, IMO.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Tue Sep 29, 2015, 12:24 AM

6. He is the first reality TV candidate.

 

The Don is reality challenged so he fits in with the GOP.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Tue Sep 29, 2015, 12:39 AM

7. Do the math in polls.

You can say the exact same thing about Clinton or Sanders.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 29, 2015, 09:57 AM

8. Actually both Hillary and Bernie do better than Trump

According to Pew Research, 48% of the electorate are Democrats or Independents who lean Democratic.

Hillary's latest poll number is 42%

0.48 X 0.42 = 0.202 or 20%

Bernie's last poll number was 35%

0.48 X 0.35 = .0.168 or 17%

In addition I think that most Democrats and Independents who lean their way will ultimately vote for the Democratic candidate regardless of whether Hillary, Bernie or Joe ultimately wins the nomination. So the Democratic candidate will probably receive at minimum nearly 48% of the vote.

I am not at all sure that a similar situation will occur on the Republican side if Trump wins. As Jeb Bush says, Trump is not a true Republican or a conservative. So Trump might not even be assured of the support of the 39% of the people who normally vote for Republicans.

In addition the Democratic candidates are actually putting out proposals which can stand scrutiny over the long haul, while Trump's proposals have been mostly hot air. Even his rather detailed tax proposal will torn apart by economists and tax experts because he doesn't show how he can pay for his proposed tax cuts except for saying "I am the business god and I will make the economy grow" - more hot air.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Tue Sep 29, 2015, 12:47 PM

9. Easy airtime filler in for 24/7/365 "news" networks

His bluster makes for an easy airtime filler bonanza.

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