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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNational Journal: Republicans hold 8 out 10 senate seats most likely to flip in 2016.
1. Illinois (Sen. Mark Kirk (R) running for reelection)
2. Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson (R) running for reelection)
3. New Hampshire (Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) running for reelection)
4. Pennsylvania (Sen. Pat Toomey (R) running for reelection)
5. Nevada (Sen. Harry Reid (D) retiring)
6. Ohio (Sen. Rob Portman (R) running for reelection)
7. Florida (Sen. Marco Rubio (R) retiring to run for president)
8. North Carolina (Sen. Richard Burr (R) running for reelection)
9. Colorado (Sen. Michael Bennet (D) running for reelection)
10. Indiana (Sen. Dan Coats (R) retiring)
http://www.nationaljournal.com/pictures-video/hotline-s-senate-rankings-the-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-in-2016-20150813
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National Journal: Republicans hold 8 out 10 senate seats most likely to flip in 2016. (Original Post)
RandySF
Aug 2015
OP
murielm99
(30,735 posts)1. I would have my doubts
about Indiana.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)2. Then there is the whole thing with Rand Paul running for president and the Senate at the same time
If Paul does become the Republican presidential (or vice-presidential) nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.[3] In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up.[4][5][6] Paul spent his own campaign money in the 2014 legislative elections, helping Republican candidates for the State House in the hopes of flipping the chamber, thus allowing the legislature to pass the bill (Democratic Governor Steve Beshear's veto can be overridden with a simple majority).[7][8] However, the Democrats retained their 54-46 majority in the State House.[9][10][11]
Paul is running for both president and re-election, and may consider several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, perhaps dropping his presidential bid to focus on re-election if it becomes clear by the May 2016 Kentucky primary that he will not win the nomination. His supporters have also claimed that the law does not apply to federal offices and have suggested that changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination.[12] However, this option would only work until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have to appear on the ballot twice in November if he won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options open to him include running for both offices and "daring" Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican Secretary of State who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and, assuming he wins the presidential nomination, running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he runs for re-election and hope that he could win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.[13]
In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as Vice President on Mitt Romney's ticket.[14] David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.[15]
Paul is running for both president and re-election, and may consider several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, perhaps dropping his presidential bid to focus on re-election if it becomes clear by the May 2016 Kentucky primary that he will not win the nomination. His supporters have also claimed that the law does not apply to federal offices and have suggested that changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination.[12] However, this option would only work until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have to appear on the ballot twice in November if he won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options open to him include running for both offices and "daring" Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican Secretary of State who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and, assuming he wins the presidential nomination, running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he runs for re-election and hope that he could win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.[13]
In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as Vice President on Mitt Romney's ticket.[14] David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.[15]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2016