What do you think of the following scenario re: Trump?

[Tommy_Carcetti]

Trump continues to make problems with the more establishment arm of the GOP. As punishment, he's excluded from numerous GOP events, possibly even debates.

His brittle ego offended, Trump quits the Republican race and vows to run Independent.

He goes through on his promise to run third party/Independent.

Initially, there's a lot of enthusiasm from his loyal supporters and a lot of morbid curiosity, and some polls place him in the 20% vicinity in a three way race against the Democratic and Republican nominee.

But Trump's ego consumes him, his out of control behavior consumes him, and he goes more and more bizarre and extreme in his outlandish statements and behavior. Like obnoxious reality TV show stars (Honey Boo Boo, Duck Dynasty, the Duggars, etc.) or Sarah Palin, people begin to get really tired of him and reject and ignore him. People begin to jump ship left and right.

By November 2016, a broken Trump's only able to manage about 2% of the vote. Those 2% wouldn't likely have voted for either the Democratic or Republican candidate in the first place, and as such there's no real vote siphoning effect from him. He ends up as a non-factor.

That's one scenario I could see playing out. The other, more frightening scenario is that he somehow taps into the dark reaches of the American psyche, grabs strong popular support, and we are faced with the prospect of a seriously mentally defective egomaniac as our president.

I know there's a strong contingent that he's the Lord of GOP Chaos and will spoil the chances of the GOP nominee, but I'd rather fight the Bush/Walker/Whomever bull head on than be distracted by the horrifying prospects of a President Trump.

[GreatGazoo]

1. when Trump went into Atlantic City he green-mailed all the big casinos

He was the outsider but he played them one by one. He made a lot of money by getting paid to go away.

Greenmail, as you know, is when one investor buys enough of a company to start a takeover OR they must buy you out at an inflated price.

What Trump likely has in mind is the greenmailing of the GOP and their big donors. He is the poison pill that the GOP cannot swallow in 2016 -- alienating conservative women. conservative Hispanic and other segments that the GOP need in order to win. Trump led with his attacks on Hispanics in a primary where Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Bush were supposed to be the front runners who could pull in conservative Hispanics.

Trump is looking for a deal, not the presidency.

[monmouth4]

2. Great post and so is the OP. I pretty much know Mr. Trump from telephone meetings (I worked for his

publisher before I retired) and we would often have conversations about the AC area as I was raised there. Let me tell you, he is charming, smart and as GreatGazoo has beautifully said, he's looking for a deal, not the presidency. That would be such a step down for him. He's having a good time and a good laugh, I'd bet on it...

[XRubicon]

3. I think his schtick runs thin and he pulls a Perot

"I was successful in getting the politicians back on track, my work is done here"

His pattern of explaining his over the top remarks with other meanings will catch up sooner or later.