General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHillary 75%, Bernie 15%, Webb 4%, O'Malley 2%
Last edited Mon Jun 22, 2015, 08:33 PM - Edit history (1)
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/hillary-clinton-dominates-2016-democratic-field-leads-gop-rivals-n379836
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-poll-finds-hillary-clinton-tops-gop-presidential-rivals-1435012049
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Thanks for posting!
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I recall seeing one a couple weeks ago (which showed him losing those match-ups), but I can't seem to find it now.
okasha
(11,573 posts)In all of them Sanders loses to the Republican candidates.
randys1
(16,286 posts)and Taxi drivers and hotel workers, restaurant etc, half or more never heard of Bernie.
BUT
when they hear about him, and they will, this will change.
Yes, I talk politics with everybody I can and I talk about Bernie, have been doing that for a while.
pnwmom
(108,955 posts)since he'll limit himself to Federal campaign funds, and the Rethug won't.
So good luck on getting his true message through their barrage of lies.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)This is why we can win, not how we are going to lose.
pnwmom
(108,955 posts)Sanders message will be completely swamped. And we'll all wish he'd never chosen to label himself as a "Socialist." In this country, that's the kiss of death for a politician in most of the country; tiny Vermont -- the only state with town halls -- being the happy exception.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)and the only ones who believe it are the ones that want to. And no one running in the Democratic Primary was ever going to reach them.
The rest of us are looking forward to the future. The only question for me is "do you think this nation is going in the right direction?"
If your answer is yes, then Hillary is definitely your choice. If your answer is no, then you have to look else where.
But I'm just boring you, so have a great night.
pnwmom
(108,955 posts)the current Congress. Without a very different Congress he won't get anywhere.
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)It's part of his message and he's very clear about it. As he says, the campaign isn't about him, it's about us.
shanti
(21,675 posts)but they will!
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)come Super Tuesday.
MNBrewer
(8,462 posts)what WAS his name?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)daleanime
(17,796 posts)Sorry about that.
zentrum
(9,865 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)These national polls this far out are meaningless.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Please provide me with a link for a candidate that had a sixty point lead at this point in any primary cycle and lost?
Thank you in advance....
Respectfully if you were honest with yourself you would concede that Bernie Sanders winning the 2016 Democratic primary is as likely as Stan Van Gundy hoisting the 2016 Larry O'Brien trophy.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Why bother even posting?
I will support Hillary if she wins. I just hope Bernie does.
To soon to know.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I hope that you can understand how some of us are happy our choice is doing well and I hope you are happy with your choice.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I know there is no way he was leading Bobby Kennedy by such a large margin
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)Kennedy, the opportunist, only joined in after McCarthy's strong showing. There were no challengers. He was a total lock for the nomination at that point.
If you think Bernie has no chance, why do you keep having to bring it up constantly? He's no threat, right?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I was merely responding to a post in a thread touting HRC's huge lead...
BTW, RFK wasn't an opportunist , he was a martyr like his brother.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)I don't know how old you are, but living back then it was clear he was not going to attempt the run until Gene embarrassed LBJ.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)He was reluctant to run...If my brother got a bullet in his head at his job I would be loathe to want it too...
Bobby Kennedy was the rarest of men...He was sui generis...He married toughness to empathy...If all a person has is toughness he's likely to be a bully...If all a person has is empathy he's likely to be a patsy...If you have both you can do great things...
When I was six years old I shook the great man's hand when he was running for the U S Senate in 1964 when my mom took me to the front of a rope line when he was campaigning in Forest Hills, Queens.
I still have a letter from him that i Received when I was ten years old where he wrote that politically interested young people were our nation's best hope for the future...When he was shot I remember walking around with a transistor radio to see if he would live. When he died I was crushed.
When I was a junior high student my idols were the martyred Kennedy brothers, Dr. King, and Muhammad Ali and they still are today.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)president embarassed LBJ and emboldened RFK, b/c it showed that LBJ was not invulnerable.
Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I have a better chance of defeating Wladimir Klitschko for the WBA, IBF, WBO, IBO and The Ring heavyweight titles than Bernie Sanders has of being the Democratic nominee for president.
Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I am as really confident that I can really drop Wlad as you are really [ confident Bernie can beat Hillary.
Stick and run, stick and run, he wouldn't know what hit him..."I'm so mean I make medicine sick."
Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)No. I was serious... I like to watch people insult and patronize people from the anonymity of their computer... They are probably compensating for the pusillanimity they exhibit in real life.
Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Oh. you forgot the part about patronizing me for posting celebrity endorsements.
Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)are the 100+ sitting and former Democratic governors, Senators and Representatives who have endorsed Hillary.
Sanders' total to date: 0.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Ms Inevitable had a substantial lead in '07.
How'd that work out for her?
We are a movement and we won't be denied.
Join our Political Revolution, end the corruption of our government by .01% and their bought and paid for stooges.
SANDERS 2016
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)She had a 14 point lead in a WSJ-NBC poll at this time in 07
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls
A sixty point leads is 400% larger.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)the 99.99 % is sick of being crushed under the boot of the 0.01%. she represents them. bernie represents us.
he has the mojo on. it's not a movement this time, it's a revolution.
sanders 2016
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)and he doesn.t have name recognition yet. what do you think will happen when people know who he is?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Last edited Mon Jun 22, 2015, 09:16 PM - Edit history (1)
But I shall not.
Instead I shall say that it is my gut feeling. And in the US I am "entitled to my opinion."
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)which IS behind a pay wall.
Thanks for updating it.
s
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)that'll put him at 24.9%.
Doubtful, but it could happen.
brooklynite
(94,333 posts)...someone else drew huge crowds as well, but I got into trouble when I mentioned him...
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)What matters at the end of the day is votes. Ron Paul had very enthusiastic supporters, but not enough of them. Bernie will probably suffer the same fate.
I could be wrong, but I just dont see this mojo.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)decades. Stop saying that. You can't draw "huge crowds" if people don't know who you are. Buy a new argument already. I posit that people actually do know who BS is, which is why Hillary's lead has exploded.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)as do people in vt. but the average to low info voter is not likely to know much about him or even that he is a senator. as he gets on the debate stage and out at rallies his message will reach many more people who don.t follow politics.
edit for spelling
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)rallies, listen to talk radio, or watch political news, what are the chances these folks can't wait to get BS on a debate stage? Really? You haven't helped your argument.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)more people will want to get informed. right now he is enjoying a very energized base. but as things get closer and more people read up, they will be drawn to the message.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)Best of luck to ya!
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)time will tell ultimately⌛️
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)A steadily improving economy? Unemployment halved? Most troops home from the Mideast? The ACA? Thriving automakers? Gay marriage likely to become codified federally?
2008 was pissed. That's why, thank dog, we have Obama.
2016 will be expectations that the Obama legacy will continue. It will absolutely not be about dramatic changes.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)wealth and income inequality have become obscene. People working 60 to 70 hours a week just to survive. The TPP is going to make that even worse. Even though the ACA is in effect, a lot of people aren't getting the benefit of it because they're in states with Republican asshole governors who don't want to accept the medicare funding.The environment is going to sh*t and the problems associated with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer are growing every day.
Bernie speak to that. He represents the people. Hillary is a corporate centrist and represents the interests of the 1%. People are going to figure that out in a big big way.
and many progressives don't want the "Obama legacy" to continue. The legacy of what, more crappy trade deals to lower the standard of living in this country, more drone action killing people in foreign countries, more degradation of our rights,and rolling over for the Republicans every time they pull one of their stunts. Obama has been a nearly complete disappointment to me. And to a lot of others. And Bernie is tapping into that rage. Hillary is not.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Bromides will not win this election. By November 2016, the public will see more jobs, more loans and improved healthcare. They will vote for that status quo. They do not care that you are pissed. And they outnumber you by the hundreds of millions.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)According to the poll 92% of Democrats say they could vote for HRC... The other 8% took over Skinner's board...
BTW, BHO received 92% of the Democratic vote in 012 so we are fine.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)didn't that happen in 2008?
and who is president now?
it is a long primary season and it hasn't even started yet.
wait till the debates. hrc will be bobbing and weaving on the issues and bernie will get standing o's.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Math isn't my forte but I know 60 is a lot larger than 14.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)right now it's all name recognition. And that will change.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)It's not as if they are going to change their mind.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #142)
Name removed Message auto-removed
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Oh, it's really old news, and this:
http://election.princeton.edu/2015/04/13/the-real-problem-with-that-chart/#more-12675
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)But I think that the No Wayers are a very tiny minority of ProSense's trumad's Sid's Skinner's board. They sound like a swarm, but it's only because they're flapping their tiny wings furiously in a call for reinforcements. Note also that before they're inevitably caught, they shit everywhere they land.
(Docket excerpt: Defendant pleads guilty to a reduced charge of being mean, with the understanding that said defendant was very particular in his or her choice of targets - specifically, as stated, the "No Wayers". Per the judge's agreement, this plea immunizes Defendant from any outstanding or subsequent charges of broad-brushing toward any other group of people, regardless of their preferences to whit.)
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)that exists from the widenening chasm between haves and have nots. people are angry and sick of it. and its not just me pissed. there are many more.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)No they aren't.
No there aren't.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)those is part of the 99%?
Right, You want to buy a nice bridge?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)bernie represents the people. the more people learn about both, the more. the bernmentum builds.
okasha
(11,573 posts)and don't come into this calculus at all.
Sanders started out polling in the 13-16% range, and after all that"mojo" and "bern" and crowds and leaving no talking head show unturned and the Facebook exposure, he's still polling in the 13-16% range. To wit, Democrats are not moving for him at all. He has a problem. He may plateau out a point or two higher, but I have my doubts.
Face it. "Progressives" are not the Democratic base. The base consists of African Americans, Hispanics, lgbt's and women. Bernie is offering pie-in-the sky proposals, but he's not telling anyone how he's going to pay for any of that or even get his program through Congress. He hasn't shown any willingness so far to cut back on military spending, which is a black hole even deeper and wider than corporate welfare. The only concrete proposal the public knows about is raiding middle-income retirement funds. And that pig ain't gonna fly.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)methinks so many hrc supports are so angry because they are worried.
okasha
(11,573 posts)We're not angry, and we're not worried. Things look pretty good from the high end of 75-15.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)Democracy?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)the more it becomes clear that hrc represents the corporate hawkish one percenters and Bernie represents the rest of us,it will be game on.
bernie has a message that will resonate with the non political junkies who aren.t even paying attention yet. but they will.
and the hrc supporters know it.
6chars
(3,967 posts)or any President for that matter, except for W right after 9/11.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Gawd, the stupid shit people say on the internet.
6chars
(3,967 posts)It's all coming back to me now. I guess President Obama was extremely popular for a week right after his election before everything became all partisan again. But Howard Dean or John Kerrey or Al Gore or even Bill Clinton never had the kinds of numbers Hillary has. Maybe Reagen after he was shot and Bush 1 for a short time during his Iraq war. OK, so without a huge historical event going on, she is up there with the top moments of recent history. That is a broad resevoire of support.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Renew Deal
(81,846 posts)If he only comes out and talks reasonably people will change their support and vote for him.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I think he is talking about them already.
Maybe not using that term, but who knows... it might catch on.
BeyondGeography
(39,346 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,346 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)You have to be beside yourself with what's going on.
BeyondGeography
(39,346 posts)Things have really deteriorated. Of course, that was 45 years ago.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I can remember the 70 and 73 Finals.
BeyondGeography
(39,346 posts)They still mean a lot to us NY'ers of a certain age.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I was already in FL for the Gianelli days.
ToxMarz
(2,162 posts)They are the current measure, as the race goes on we will see movement indicating who's resonating with voters and who isn't. It's valuable to the campaigns themselves. It also is great for fund raising and voter awareness of lesser known candidates (such as Bernie). People who may not have heard of him can see the poll and think who is this guy getting these numbers I have never heard of, and fundraising is helped if the poll numbers keep going up, you don't feel like you are throwing your money away on a hopeless candidate.
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)No matter how you slice it, it's a VERY steep climb for Bernie. Impossible to overcome? I think it probably is, unless something dramatic happens, but I've been wrong before.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)I see they took Biden off and Hillary's numbers climbed 11%
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)bvar22
(39,909 posts)the polls are all about Name Recognition.... nothing else.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)IT DOESN'T!!! Deal with it!
bvar22
(39,909 posts)Even anonymous spokesmen are NOW saying
"Don't be surprised if Sanders WINS Iowa and New Hampshire."
Deal with it.
Dem Strategist: We Shouldnt Be Surprised if Sanders Beats Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire
http://freebeacon.com/politics/dem-strategist-we-shouldnt-be-surprised-if-sanders-beats-clinton-in-iowa-and-new-hampshire/
OMG....Shades of 2008!
Bernie? Hell, Yes! It CAN happen again!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)the mouthpiece of the Center for American Freedom, funded by the Koch brothers.
You gotta wonder, how desperate are the Berniacs, when they resort to the Washington Free Beacon for the attacks on Hillary.
Sid
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)You shoulda.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)And the only evidence of a surge in New Hampshire are two polls; one pollster that is new and one that was mired in controversy in 2012:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html.
I realize states are unique but a candidate isn't going one way in nat'l polls and another way is state polls as the latter is part of the former's universe.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)When the primaries come to America, we'll make our decision.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)"Hey! Didya see the poll outta NH that shows Bernie only losing by ten points?"
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Bernie COULD win New Hampshire.... but I personally think he will not.
But until Bernie can break 30% nationally, he's not really a player. In the end, we'll see.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)If nobody knew his name, nobody would show up at his speeches.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)rallied to Hillary. This poll bears out what most of us have known from Day 1. The Thom Hartmann, Ed Schultz & RT audiences combine themselves to make it look like some new organic movement is afoot, but if these numbers are to be believed, folks just aren't buying it. Can you say astroturf? Bernie could fill up stadiums nationwide, and it won't change the math.
Dropping Joe Biden & Elizabeth Warren from the polling did not inure to BS' benefit as had been expected by his supporters.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)I think he's buying into his own mythology.
He is a good guy, who fights for the middle class economically, but he is definitely a one trick pony. Voters know this.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)it would scare the hell out of me. I don't necessarily want someone who's overly hawkish, but I absolutely DO NOT want someone who wants to withdraw from our alliances abroad.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)O'Malley is a great candidate.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)None of the other lesser candidates can get oxygen as long as Hartmann, Schultz, MoveOn, RT & the rest are in the tank for BS.
bornskeptic
(1,330 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)around DC for decades. The argument that people don't know who he is by now, speaks volumes.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)Evergreen Emerald
(13,069 posts)Did I miss it?
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Evergreen Emerald
(13,069 posts)but I do not recall him actually making up his mind to run. I can't find anything on the internet that shows his actual announcement. I am not certain what it means to have an exploratory committee.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Looking back that's all I see too. I could have sworn he did a full announcement, but I guess I'm wrong.
Evergreen Emerald
(13,069 posts)like his is running, based on his webpage. At some point he will need to announce for campaign finance issues.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)Hillary should bow out now.
(posting from bizarro world)
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Big crowds, 100 % right on all the issues, soon to be admired by all minorities because rising prosperity solves everything
JI7
(89,239 posts)If she got out of the race i think most would go to him
elleng
(130,732 posts)JI7
(89,239 posts)lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)But O'Mallley has also opined about every other issue under the sun.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Not just economics. He is my second choice and I would like to see him go up on the polls. I don't know why he is polling behind Webb.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)JI7
(89,239 posts)Among the most conservative leaning types
William769
(55,144 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,222 posts)Didn't want to sign up for WSJ, and found this at NBC:
Just eight percent can't see themselves backing her in the current poll, which was conducted right after Clinton formally kicked off her presidential campaign with a rally in New York City. (By contrast, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's score among Republicans is 75-22 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio's, R-Fla., is 74-15 percent.)
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/hillary-clinton-dominates-2016-democratic-field-leads-gop-rivals-n379836
I thought BS would naturally inherit support from EW, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Hillary seems to have picked up some of EW's support, along with that of Joe Biden (not included in the poll).
I think Stephen Colbert would call that 8 percent = "backwash". What's clear from this latest poll is that Hillary has improved across ALL demographics.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Great numbers and in more than one state. I'll take it.
elleng
(130,732 posts)etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)But yeah, those are great numbers.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)GO HILLARY!
kcjohn1
(751 posts)I don't see underlining numbers, but I'm pretty sure good chunk of that lead is because of name recognition. I would venture half of the people polled don't even know Sanders.
It is difficult for any politician to get 75% of votes in real elections. Once its contested and voters actually start reviewing the candidates, I would expect more people will consider the alternatives. That is not to say Clinton is not in the driver seat, but even when/if she wins, her vote total will be closer to 55% than 75%.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)..into the polls on primary day and say "gosh, I'll vote for this guy I never heard of!" ????
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)Don't be too early for the coronation.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)You may count your chickens before they hatch. Don't you know that you shouldn't do that, and it's not right to burst others' balloons. ESPECIALLY others running as Democratic candidates. After all, this IS Democratic Underground, Not Mrs. Clinton's Place.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)Even if you believe that Sanders either can't or won't win, does it really help to antagonize Democrats who are supporting a different candidate within the primary?
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)brooklynite
(94,333 posts)...saying Hillary is going to lose?
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)If other people jumped off the Brooklyn Bridge, would you want to do so too?
herding cats
(19,558 posts)You'd better get your butt off the internet and get to work for them.
I need to make a decision early this cycle it appears.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)The only reason her lead grows from 50 points to 60 points is because Joe Biden isn't included.
Renew Deal
(81,846 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)Great Numbers..Thanks cali_democrat
^H^R^C
2016
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,346 posts)Those are very good numbers.
George II
(67,782 posts)The bottom line is that people are showing up at Sanders' rallies mostly because he's a novelty and interesting to watch, NOT because they'll vote for him in primaries.
Remember folks, in their first year of existence the Mets sold out most of their games, they still lost miserably.
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)So HRC is way up front, but less than 50% would be
satisfied.
This tells me that it is still name recognition not
really happiness about her.
Give it time.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)I guess you missed that part on MSNBC.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)by then maybe people will feel the burn
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Isn't this Democratic Underground?
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)hands.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)brooklynite
(94,333 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)pro HRC supporters that are obviously running scared, you get the obvious results that Bernie is a shoe-in for the Primaries and GE.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)There are apparently very few real Democrats anywhere else however, which makes you wonder what the tens of millions of voters and tens of thousands of precinct and district party volunteers are.
I personally would probably either vote O'Malley or Sanders now if the primary were today, just because I like their style better, but I would be perfectly content with any announced candidate winning. The only money I've donated to so far is Sanders because he will need smaller donations to keep his message going, which I find valuable. My issue here is not partisan concern either way, but to demoinstrate the difference between DU reality and real reality.
For the perpertually poutraged this is not even meta-scorn. I am an unabashed left-biased advocate on most issues and have no problem with such advocacy even on issues where I may be more moderate personally. I come here FOR left-biased advocacy. I just find it a little sad and strange that many people here deny that they are anything but towards the far end of the political spectrum. If we weren't, the House would be 435-0 D and President Kucinich would be looking at his final policy priorities planning to hand things over to President Sanders after his unopposed nomination and EC sweep.
I haven't visited places like FR in a long time, but when I'd skim it during the nomination and election campaigns, I saw brutal deranged lunacy for sure, but I saw honest brutal deranged lunacy. Nobody there pretends they are not far right. They revel in it and announce it proudly. Sure they fool themselves that more people agree with them than really do, but their self-deception is about numbers (which we sadly have too) not a false idea of where they are on the range of political opinion that is prevalent here, even when wider polls such as this one hammer home the gap between mainstream Democrats, let alone the whole gamut of Americans, and DU.
It reminds me of how the kumbaya Christians here pretend that's the vast majority of believers, and ignore data that show most believers accept Young Earth Creationism, a literal Hell, and other fundamentalist doctrines.
boston bean
(36,218 posts)BlueJazz
(25,348 posts)Sancho
(9,067 posts)hopefully Hillary will improve as we move into the big Sunbelt states where she can campaign with her base. Jeb has LOTS of money and the family machine, so we have to keep the pressure on!
salib
(2,116 posts)Hillary is solid and Bernie is make real progress.
O'Malley is not budging, though.
raindaddy
(1,370 posts)Clinton lacks passion and you can't fake passion..
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)that the MSM likes to see. It will bring them many advertising dollars from the candidates.
That's why they commission these polls, review the questions to make sure that things end up the way that they want.
Oh, and thanks for the link behind a pay wall. If I want to read it to see what it says, I have to pay. How quite American that is.
Sancho
(9,067 posts)look at the poll drop when someone is called a "socialist"...even with the Jewish population.
http://jpupdates.com/2015/06/22/poll-bernie-sanders-doesnt-have-a-jewish-problem/
"Among Democratic voters, 92% would support a Jewish candidate, while only 59% are inclined to support an identified socialist. Among Independents and Republicans
At one point, Americans might have withheld their votes from him because of his Jewish faith fewer than half said they would support a Jewish candidate in 1937 but today his socialist ideology, given Americans views on voting for a socialist candidate, could hinder his candidacy more, Gallup noted."
It's bad enough Bernie doesn't have a following with minority, but when the professional hit team labels him a socialist, his competitiveness will drop like a rock. Those are people who won't attend a rally, but will watch TV.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)I visited my folks in their assisted-living community last evening. I know that my mom (89) and stepdad (93) would never vote for a Jew for president. It's a generational thing, to a certain extent, but (at least anecdotally... since it's all the rage around here) these first and second-generation Jewish-Americans wince at the notion of a prominent Jew in the crosshairs. That's exactly how they see it, as well as their friends at the dinner table. I understand.
Add to that that my stepdad was a Holocaust survivor who escaped Hungary during the Russian invasion. To him, to my mom, and to the rest (to a man and woman) Socialist is Hitler. Socialist is Stalin.
They will vote for the blonde shiksa. All of them.
My generation is tougher to discern. Some of our parents' paranoia rubbed off, so they may share some of the same feelings.
Generations following have lost much of their Jewish identity.
I am really looking forward to a Primary poll of American Jews. I have no idea with whom they're aligned, but it's likely to be fascinating.
Sancho
(9,067 posts)Jews, immigrants with various experiences, independents who just listen to the ads, etc.
There are problems with Bernie other than that, but he's pretty much a sitting duck for a serious. well-funded opponent. There may be a populist candidate out there who would be able to rally America, but Bernie simply isn't the one.
Rafale
(291 posts)Johnson = Clinton
Save us Bernie. Please save us.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)That's so wrong!
Not that I'm denying the polling, I mean it's morally wrong in my eyes.
En Garde
(94 posts)Wonder what the poll numbers were for Hillary on 22 June 2007?
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)En Garde
(94 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Maybe look up thread for the non-reality of your statement. Besides Sanders is no Obama so you are comparing apples to oranges
En Garde
(94 posts)Hillary cheerleaders patronizing young voters of color won't win her votes.
tritsofme
(17,370 posts)Than 2008, 2004, or 2000.
Attracting only token opposition, Hillary is in the strongest position of any candidate who was not already an incumbent president ever.
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)All I know for sure is teh WSJ loves them some Hillary.
Got a link to the poll from a free source?
RandySF
(58,479 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)The Republicans must be freaking.
philosslayer
(3,076 posts)n/t
moondust
(19,958 posts)Which royal family shall take the bejeweled crown?!!!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)he's still in the mid-teens. Respectable but not a threat.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)They are happy with Hillary especially when they see she will likely beat anyone the GOP can put up.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)which is one of the reasons i don't support her. besides her positions, she will not be a heavyweight in a general because she is too similar to an r.
two corporate centrists. it will come down to personality. and we know gwb was the guy everyone wanted to have a beer with.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I support her.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Oh Yes
(20 posts)I consider this poll a big, big outlier.
If they want to tout this as gospel, fine with me, but it still does not convince me the Hillary Clinton has a clear path to victory. She still has issues to address, and based on "Hard Choices" that I read, I am not in favor of her or her "gold standard" of trade for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)But all the national polls have her ahead big. That can not be denied.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Gold denotes a state won by Lyndon B. Johnson. Purple denotes a state won by Robert Kennedy Green denotes a state won by Eugene McCarthy. Blue denotes a state won by George Smathers. Orange denotes a state won by Stephen M. Young. Grey denotes a state that did not hold a primary.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)All have primaries, good info thanks. I'll have to read up not that!
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Thanks... Whoops
bornskeptic
(1,330 posts)The map does show all the primaries that were held in 1968. Humphrey got the nomination without winning a single primary. LBJ could have been nominated. He didn't want to run.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)The results are impressive, but I question them. Besides the fact that it's early and one has overwhelming name recognition. I can think of two flaws with the poll. The first is the sample size. Hillary has a massive majority of Democrats favoring her according to 247 people polled. That is a small sample size by any polling standard. I know it's anecdotal but half of the Democrats I know like her and the other half can't stand her. Far from the huge popularity rating these polls seem to give her. Polls usually trump anecdotal evidence, but we'll see how it plays out in a few months.
The other issue is one not specific to this poll. In order to maximize accuracy of polls, a lot of polling organizations only poll people "Likely to vote". They don't want non-voters skewing the results. Normally that's a good idea. The problem with that is that if Bernie wins it's going to be largely because of people "Not likely to vote" as well as cross over votes, not the people who normally vote in Democratic primaries. Are the polls even considering this?
This is why I believe Hillary had better retain good leads in the polls. Because I suspect the number of Bernie voters come election days are going to be substantially higher than the polls account for (and I expect his polling numbers to improve a lot). There's signs of a lot of disenfranchised people are starting to come back because of him, as well as first time young voters. If he ever gets close to even with her in the polls then she is in trouble.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Right now everyone who supports Bernie is "likely to vote" so if they polled those people I don't feel that's a poll flaw.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)I've already heard many anecdotal (that evil word again) instances of non-voters saying they're going to vote just because of him. People who haven't voted recently and aren't yet registered are often eliminated from polls. Also young people are undercounted in polls because they are traditionally unreliable. If social media is any indication, Bernie is already making major inroads there.
Again it's way too early to know if trends are proof of a larger pattern or just early anomoly.
This now makes them "likely voters"...
RichVRichV
(885 posts)Sorry, I refuse to link outside sources because I never know what is considered a right wing rag around here (we really need a running list posted). Just google "polling likely voters" for better explanation.
To try and explain it, people who don't vote often tell pollers they will (don't ask me why, I'm not an expert). To make "likely voters" more accurate they have a series of questions they ask including things such as "are you registered", "have you voted recently", "what age are you", "do you know where your polling place is", "how likely are you to vote from 1 to 10", etc. Then they score them based on the answers to determine if they're actually a likely voter.
People who don't check off enough boxes may be excluded even if they say they intend to vote.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)Yes, the internet is a an amazing tool, and it has a place in elections. What it doesn't do is replace people interacting in real life with other people. No matter how we want to pretend it does. Knocking on doors and phone banking done by a real person still helps spread the message beyond the wonks on the internet. Which by the way, the vast majority of American's are not wonks.
Bernie has a good message and he is a veteran at campaigning. However, this is a national election. It takes having boots on the ground, lots and lots of boots on the ground to create a wave. It takes hard work and dedication by his supporters. Not petty bickering on the internet. Petty bickering on the internet has one an election...never.
This post is in my estimation a rebuttal (my apologies if I'm wrong Cali Democrat!) to the hoopla based on this previous polling data. Even I admit I wasn't thrilled by it, but it is extremely early. The media used it to generate some false sense of a major surge by Bernie. Which led to some people here acting like they were owning the process prematurely. Primary wars...they're never good for the underdog on the internet. People get distracted by the media trying to turn it into a horse-race and ignore the reality that if their choice is the underdog, they're going to have to work their asses off to make them not so.
If you want Bernie to do better in the primary election, work for him. That's what makes a difference. I'm all about the process, and I've spent years encouraging people to engage and support a Democratic candidate with everything they have. I still believe every primary election, on all levels, is when we make our needs be known. People need to commit and really dedicate their time to their choice. Not on a message board, but where the campaign says they need you and doing what you can in that location. This is how we exercise our power.
Having given my get out there and get to work speech, I'm now admitting I'm not committed. It's crazy early and I'm still getting a feel for the candidates on a national platform. If you're not like me, and you're feeling a soul level connection, then get to work! Real work, not being an antagonist on the internet. Unless you support Hillary you have some serious work to do ahead of you, and even for her supporters you need to stay on your game. Don't think you have it in the bag and that you can sit out this cycle. That's how elections are lost.
I'm sorry. I think I got carried away and most of this wasn't directed at you or your post. Politics bring out my passionate side.
/rant
brooklynite
(94,333 posts)This is really confusing. I was told (here) that the media was marginalizing or ignoring Sanders.
Boy, the politics stuff is complicated.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)I'm not trying hit a dig on you. Surprising, right? I just realize people here say some pretty crazy stuff just to be sensational. I saw all those threads talking about the "Bernie surge" and just shook my head. I'd read the data, I knew the reality of the situation. It's an uphill fight if he's your choice. You need to get out and do the leg work to make something happen. Not bait people on an internet forum. It's about hard work and dedication. That's the premise of grassroots politics.
You're a Hillary supporter. I pay attention. I think you're involved beyond posting here, which is a great thing! You love your candidate, maybe work to encourage others to volunteer? I live to see new people brought into the process. That's what keeping our party alive is all about. It's how fellow wonks are born.
I'm a hard working Democrat to the bone. I just get frustrated sometimes by people who complain and aren't active in the process. It's as if they expect something to magically happen because they've clicked their heels together three times and posted about it on the internet.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)I've said many times that nothing trumps word of mouth. Thing is it's a little early to annoy strangers with phone banks. lol
Our voices go farther with people that know and trust us. That's why my current focus is on bringing Bernie's message to family, friends, and co-workers. If the 200k+ volunteers he has are doing the same thing then Bernie will have a small army ready once the real election season gets going. Right now it's about sowing the seeds.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)Talk to people you know about your choice. Everyone you know, and be passionate about why you feel the way you do. That's how minds are opened and ultimately changed! Know why you believe what you believe and stay positive in your messages when you're talking to people. People respond to a positive dialog much more than a negative one.
I've worked too many political campaigns, that army at this point could be an infantry of foot soldiers by the time they're called into service. Most never produce fruit, but usually if the ones who are dedicated work hard you can get something real going. Be one of the dedicated ones if you really believe in the cause. You owe it to yourself, your family and anything you hold dear within the process.
Maybe let me know how things go for you over the course? Even if I pick someone else, I'm totally invested in everyone supporting their choice with their whole hearts. That's how we create change, with our passion and our hard work. That's what the process is all about.
The best of luck to you!
RichVRichV
(885 posts)Hillary is out polling Bernie 5 to 1. The problem is she's not out drawing him 5 to 1. They're drawing pretty equally at their rallies across the country. What this tells me is that Hillary has a small contingent of enthusiastic voters and Bernie has a small contingent of enthusiastic voters. The vast majority of Democrats are fence sitters (probably because they just don't care that much this early) who lean Hillary.
So why do they lean Hillary? Because on one hand you have a former first lady and secratary of state who was regularly in the news. On the other hand you have a senator from Vermont. People tend to go with the person they know over the person they don't (human nature).
I'd take the early polls more seriously if other evidence was aligning with them.
rocktivity
(44,572 posts)"Get thee beyond me, polls!
Unclean! UNCLEAN!!!"
rocktivity
brooklynite
(94,333 posts)1. It's only name recognition
2. There are 8 months until people vote
And
3. The MSM won't let Bernie's message get out.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)Damn right Bernie is having an impact on her campaign. She'll show her true colors if elected. They always swing left during campaigning, and swing back centrist right, once elected. Bill did it, Obama did it, even Jimmy Carter did it. Bernie is the real deal folks, he won't back down. Still too early to start declaring Hillary's victory. Way too early. The Republican clown car will be quite a show to watch, get popcorn ready. But in the end it will be Bush. We know that it's coming.
brooklynite
(94,333 posts)...always a winner!
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)secondvariety
(1,245 posts)for Clinton if she wins the nomination, but I don't get the attraction. At all.
ybbor
(1,554 posts)That's the taste I'll have in my mouth on Election Day if she wins the nomination.
Don't know if I can make myself vote for her, won't vote repub, but not sure I could vote for her.. She doesn't represent me.
Our country needs more than two shitty choices every four years.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The only hope for Bernie to pull this out is an unprecedented tortoise and hare run. He's hownlong some gains are possible on NH. I fully expect Iowa to tighten with the next poll. If he can make gains in the other pre-Super Tuesday races, he can change the narrative and get the national attention.
The debates will really be a determining factor as to whether this is possible.
Omaha Steve
(99,494 posts)herding cats
(19,558 posts)I like O'Malley way more than Web. I cannot figure out that data. At least in the other polls they have O'Malley .5% ahead of Web. Which is somewhat easier to stomach. Most of the people I've spoken to don't know who either one is, but damn folks, O'Malley has at least announced!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)She already got most of Bidens.
Omaha Steve
(99,494 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Polls are only valid if they validate my bias; otherwise, they're simply flawed/it's-too-early/partisan-sponsored.
sonofspy777
(360 posts)...and even so he's at 15%
Wait til he actually GOES THERE!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)Bernie needs to get out of his comfort zone.
Good Luck.
bunnies
(15,859 posts)Im almost at that point myself. Fuck it.