Obergefell v. Hodges - how do you think the SCOTUS will rule?

[Algernon Moncrieff]

...as opposed to how do you want them to rule. I'd imagine the vast majority of DUers want the court to grant full marriage equality.

Will they grant full equality?

Will they leave decisions to the states, but stipulate that states must recognize marriages performed in other states?

Will they leave state-by-state decision making in place?

[Ms. Toad]

1. Affirm the first question and reverse the second question.

No constitutional right to marry - but states will be forced to recognize marriages performed elsewhere.

At that point we have the Loving scenario for same gender marriages, and regardless of how long it takes the last state to abolish its anti-gay rhetoric, anyone who can run to the state next door will have full marital rights.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

4. The true mark of an intelligent person is how much they agree with you

I find your remarks extremely intelligent, as I think that's how it plays out.

However, I would not put it past Oklahoma, Kansas, or South Carolina to try saying , "Fine! (in the manner of a petulant 3 year old) we won't recognize anyone's out of state marriage. If you want your marriage recognized in our state, you have to get married in our state according to our laws." I don't think that will fly for a minute at the Federal level, but I think it may be tried.

[Ms. Toad]

6. You're probably right as to the crazy states.

Including mine.

I was talking to someone today who is relatively close to the case who makes the same assessment I did.

I just don't see them either creating a new protected class OR agreeing with the higher standard than the norm for the rational basis test which has been applied (without expressly saying so) by a number of Circuit Courts. The wild card would be if they decide it is discrimination based on gender, which would bump it up to intermediate scrutiny & then both would be reversed.

[morningfog]

2. I think they will strike down all bans to same sex marriage.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

3. IMO, that scenario on Kennedy -- maybe Roberts

Alito, Scalia/Thomas (Scalia thinks for Thomas): All will vote to affirm all bans. I expect Scalia to pontificate from the bench, no matter how this goes.

Kagan, Bader-Ginsburg, Sotomayor (I'm 90% sure) and Breyer -- all vote to strike the bans

Roberts has a sense of time and place; he may realize that this is the time and place to make a major decision. Then again he may roll with the conservatives.

That leaves Kennedy.

[Princess Turandot]

5. 5-4 in favor of full equality...

I think their refusal throughout the term to stay all those lower federal court rulings invalidating state same sex marriage bans was a sign that there were enough Justices to find for full equality. Otherwise, it made no sense for them to allow same sex marriages to immediately go forward in the interim (before a SCOTUS case/decision) in the states that had passed those bans.

It might get a 6-3 vote if Roberts joins Kennedy and the liberal justices in the decision. I've read some articles which suggest that Roberts might decide to be on the right side of legal history if it's going to happen with or without him.