~••@•An Opening for Elizabeth Warren If She Wants It•@••~

[LawDeeDah]

An Opening for Elizabeth Warren If She Wants It
Hillary Clinton’s daunting lead in national polls masks much closer results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
By Douglas E. Schoen

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren told Fortune magazine this month that she won’t run for president in 2016, deepening the sense that the Democratic nomination is Hillary Clinton’s for the asking. Yet in contemporary politics the landscape can change dramatically, seemingly overnight. Before 2008 Barack Obama said repeatedly that he wasn’t running for president.

If Elizabeth Warren doesn’t change her mind, it could be because of intimidating national polls showing Mrs. Clinton with an overwhelming lead. Most recently, a CNN/ORC poll had the former secretary of state with a 66%-9% advantage over Ms. Warren.

But these numbers don’t tell the whole story, and if Ms. Warren eventually does get into the race, it could be because the numbers in the crucial primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire are not nearly so scary.

In my own recent polling there, I found a much more competitive landscape. Telephone interviews with 400 likely caucusgoers in Iowa and 400 likely primary voters in New Hampshire, conducted Jan. 13-15, suggest that Ms. Warren is already considerably more competitive than national polls suggest. In a head-to-head Clinton-Warren matchup in Iowa, Mrs. Clinton ran 15 points ahead of Ms. Warren, at 51%-36%. Surprisingly, caucus-voting Iowa Democrats already appear to be thoroughly familiar with the Massachusetts senator, and well-disposed toward her, with a 75%-7% favorability rating. Mrs. Clinton has great favorables, too: 93%-6%.

But Mrs. Clinton’s favorables don’t appear to make her invulnerable to a populist challenge from the left, as a Warren campaign would almost certainly be. My polling shows that there is a significant opening with Democratic primary voters who are extremely liberal in ideology and populist in orientation...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/douglas-schoen-an-opening-for-elizabeth-warren-if-she-wants-it-1422232305

[TheNutcracker]

1. I can only get excited and work for Warren or Sanders. Not Hillary.

[LawDeeDah]

3. zing!...

When respondents were asked the sort of question that a campaign might pose—whether they’d vote for Mrs. Clinton, described as close to Wall Street and a supporter of the Iraq war, versus Ms. Warren as a true progressive who stands up to Wall Street—Ms. Warren polled ahead of Mrs. Clinton, at 47% to 42%.

[LawDeeDah]

4. Mr. Schoen served as a political adviser and pollster for President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000.

Shooting the messenger might not be a good idea.

[vi5]

5. I just wish there were more people running.....period.

I hate that we don't even have a decent back bench of possibilities or even other people considering.

[LawDeeDah]

6. It's early! Have hope! There were many contenders in the 2008 primaries

even tho 'Hillary is inevitable' thing was trying to drown out everyone else.

I thinkso far only Webb has started an exploratory, Bernie said he might. No one is speaking out yet. There may be some delicious surprises in the line up.

[LawDeeDah]

7. Lizbeth!