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Wed Jan 21, 2015, 03:52 AM

Something smells about that 92 million Americans not working thing Cruz said tonight.

I just heard it and thought it sounded familiar, so I looked to see why. What I found was back in October of 2013 the claim was that 90 million Americans weren't working.

90 Million Americans Not Working
Another unfortunate milestone for the labor market. \\Maybe the Bureau of Labor Statistics should have skipped a month because the belated September jobs report it issued Tuesday after the government shutdown wasn't worth the wait.

Payrolls rose a humdrum 148,000 in September, the unemployment rate fell a tick to 7.2%, and wages were up slightly. But once again the number that stands out is the 136,000 Americans in September (following the 516,000 in August) who joined those "not in the labor force." The labor force participation rate stayed at its lowest level since the 1970s at 63.2%.

The U.S. now has 90.6 million "non-institutionalized" men and women over the age of 16 not working—an all-time high. That's 10 million above the 80.5 million when President Obama took office. With total employment at 144.3 million, for every three Americans over the age of 16 earning a paycheck there are two who aren't even looking for a job. That's an ugly portent for American prosperity.

Demographics is about half the explanation as about six million baby boomers have turned 65 since 2008. Another is that young people are staying in school longer. Both trends are reinforced by the bearish job market. Even among those in their prime working years between 25 and 64, the number not working has increased by about 1.8 million since 2008. That is on top of the 11.3 million who are officially unemployed.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303902404579151843080376798


Then I looked a couple of seconds more and found this:


Are 90 million Americans not working or not looking for work?

A reader recently asked us to check a claim that’s been widely repeated on conservative websites -- that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. Over the past few months, the statistic has been cited by various conservative bloggers, pundits and news outlets.

We thought we’d take a closer look.

Here’s how the calculation is made, using Census Bureau population estimates and employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The total U.S. population age 16 and over is at least 243 million. Subtracting the nearly 156 million Americans in the labor force in June 2013 -- that is, those who were either working or looking for work -- leaves 87 million Americans, which is close to 90 million.

However, the 90 million number is padded, since this number includes a lot of Americans who wouldn’t be expected to be working. Specifically:

• People age 16 to 17, who likely are in high school: 9 million

• People who are enrolled in either two- or four-year colleges: 21 million

• People age 65 and older, who have reached retirement age: 40 million people

That means 20 million people are of normal working age, not in college and not working. That’s less than one-quarter the amount repeatedly cited in the blogosphere.

<>

So the number of people employed and the number joining the labor force have both increased since the end of the last recession -- but, importantly, these gains haven’t kept pace with the rise in population.

This decline actually started around 2000, but it intensified starting with the most recent recession.

"The trick is to determine how much of the drop represents the impact of a lagging economy, which is worrisome, and how much is due to non-worrisome factors, such as the aging of the adult population," Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, told PolitiFact earlier this year.

As more adults begin moving into retirement age, the percentage of Americans who work is bound to decline. And that’s been happening in a big way as the baby boomers age. Burtless has determined that the two employment ratios would have fallen in recent years just on the basis of aging, even if there had been no recession. But the age-related decline has been worsened by high unemployment rates during the recession.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jul/30/blog-posting/are-90-million-americans-not-working-or-looking-wo/


It appears this a regurgitated RW talking point which was debunked as "mostly false" more than a year ago. Just offering this up for those of you with conservative co-workers to deal with tomorrow. Better to have our facts in a row than be caught off guard.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 04:00 AM

1. Republican response: "I'm not a mathematician, but based on solid anecdotal evidence that

I've collected it's 90 million, everything else is skewed" ...

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 04:30 AM

2. In his defense, no one in Cruz's immediate circle of acquaintances does any work . . .

so it's kind of easy for someone like him, with such a demonstrably weak grasp on reality, to extrapolate his own useless existence into his perception of the rest of us.

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Response to Journeyman (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 06:02 AM

4. Excellent point. Then again, am I sorry that this House was AWOL a lot?

Color me conflicted.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 05:58 AM

3. He was partly right: something does smell. Maybe wash his mouth out with soap?

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 06:06 AM

5. That meme has actually been posted here before:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024712350

Take a good hard look at the recs.

People buy these right wing talking points hook line and sinker.

But then again, the Republicans would like all people to work, including the elderly, retired, disabled, stay at home parents and yes, children.

When Cruz parroted that crap, I instantly knew where it was originating: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=6115377

The right wing.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 06:12 AM

7. I wouldn't be buying into anything from the OP.. hogswoggle.

So, that post was cruz' meme tonight?!

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Response to Cha (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 06:17 AM

8. Cruz said that crap, and OP debunked it.

OP isn't saying it's true, I was linking an OP here that said it was true and it got 69 recs from the usual suspects. Click recs: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024712350

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 06:19 AM

9. Right, thanks!

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 03:55 PM

10. Funny thing is that OP is where I saw his statement too.

The man's a moron.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 03:59 PM

11. I could have read it here and saw it debunked.

I don't do too many RW propaganda sites, so that's likely. I don't get why people here spread RW tripe, but I've seen it happen with my own eyes too.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 06:10 AM

6. When has any stat uttered by a republican ever been true? Remeber the "Abortions are 90% of

what Planned Parenthood does" crap from Jon Kyl?
and his response "Not intended to be a factual statement"
If their lips are moving, they are LYING!

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 04:00 PM

12. I'm now a Taker, not a Maker, and I'm glad.

 

I started working at 15 and retired at 55. I figured 40 years of wasting my life was enough.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 04:15 PM

13. However many there are, Cruz and company have no intention of helping.

To say nothing of helping people earn an actual living wage.

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