The Senate Map Flips in 2016

Our wonderful Democratic Party leaders and their highly paid grifters...err...I mean "consultants" and "strategists" will find some way to fuck it up.

I think people don't understand how bad the map was for Senate Democrats this year. Not only were we fighting on Republican turf in many places, but there were so many open seats, due mostly to senators retiring. Right now, there are no open races in any of the states that we would hope to turn from red to blue in 2016.

And it's very difficult to unseat incumbents once they are ensconced. I doubt that here in Illinois we will be able to unseat Republican Mark Kirk, given the demographics of downstate conservative voters and moderate suburban Republican voters, and given that he has a very heartfelt medical story to use for sympathy votes. We'd need to have a superlative candidate to do that.

So at this moment, I'm not holding my breath for a reversal in 2016. But I'll try like hell to make it happen.

I know he says this is his last job - but isn't it possible for him to go back to the Senate? If he can't or doesn't want to - how about Michelle.

Either one I believe would handily defeat Mark Kirk.

nt

from going to the Republican billionaire.

The city of Chicago went nearly 80% for the Democratic governor, Pat Quinn. Suburbs went half and half, more or less, and the rest of the state ("downstate" went for the Republican.

Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe,
North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Arizona.

Whoever takes the WH probably takes the senate also. Many of those are are teabaggers elected during with low turnout. There could be up to 10 senate seats in play. I wouldn't expect a sweep by either party.

So if we can win in 2016, we should be able to expect a net gain of Senate seats, and House seats as well.

probably depends on the margin of victory, a narrow WH win by either party probably won't get much senate seats

The larger the margin, the longer the coattail

It's not out of the question, but there has to be a ton of negatives for the Republicans to be ousted in this state.

Possibly enough there to pick up enough seats to get a slim majority in the Senate, but not much more. And that won't be easy unless some of the repub Senators retire.

That ought to be interesting.