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Thu Nov 6, 2014, 12:39 PM

The Senate Map Flips in 2016

The Senate Map Flips in 2016

“After securing control of the Senate Tuesday, Republicans are already staring down a daunting map for 2016,” Roll Call reports.

“The majority of the Senate battleground in the next election cycle will be fought on Republican turf, with the GOP defending 24 seats to the Democrats’ 10. There is more trouble for the party beneath those raw numbers; only two Democratic seats are in competitive states, while more than half a dozen Republican incumbents face re-election in states President Barack Obama carried at least once.”

Huffington Post: Here’s the Democratic route back to Senate control




MORE:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/06/senate-2016_n_6109472.html?utm_hp_ref=politicshttp://politicalwire.com/2014/11/06/senate-map-flips-in-2016/
http://atr.rollcall.com/senate-races-2016-outlook-republicans-democrats/?dcz=

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 12:45 PM

1. Don't worry

 

Our wonderful Democratic Party leaders and their highly paid grifters...err...I mean "consultants" and "strategists" will find some way to fuck it up.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 12:50 PM

2. Yes, but at the moment none of these are "open" seats

I think people don't understand how bad the map was for Senate Democrats this year. Not only were we fighting on Republican turf in many places, but there were so many open seats, due mostly to senators retiring. Right now, there are no open races in any of the states that we would hope to turn from red to blue in 2016.

And it's very difficult to unseat incumbents once they are ensconced. I doubt that here in Illinois we will be able to unseat Republican Mark Kirk, given the demographics of downstate conservative voters and moderate suburban Republican voters, and given that he has a very heartfelt medical story to use for sympathy votes. We'd need to have a superlative candidate to do that.

So at this moment, I'm not holding my breath for a reversal in 2016. But I'll try like hell to make it happen.

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Response to frazzled (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 01:19 PM

5. Can Barack Obama Run For Senator In Illinois In 2016?.....

I know he says this is his last job - but isn't it possible for him to go back to the Senate? If he can't or doesn't want to - how about Michelle.

Either one I believe would handily defeat Mark Kirk.

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Response to global1 (Reply #5)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 01:36 PM

6. Legally, yes. But he'd have to want to. (nt)

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Response to frazzled (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:22 PM

9. but there will be voter higher turnout in Chicago

nt

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Response to pstokely (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:34 PM

13. It wasn't enough this time to keep the governorship

from going to the Republican billionaire.

The city of Chicago went nearly 80% for the Democratic governor, Pat Quinn. Suburbs went half and half, more or less, and the rest of the state ("downstate" went for the Republican.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 01:08 PM

3. They should be able to pick up a few seats..

Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe,
North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Arizona.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:21 PM

8. possibly enough for a bare majority

Last edited Thu Nov 6, 2014, 10:11 PM - Edit history (1)

Whoever takes the WH probably takes the senate also. Many of those are are teabaggers elected during with low turnout. There could be up to 10 senate seats in play. I wouldn't expect a sweep by either party.

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Response to pstokely (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:27 PM

10. The winner of a presidential election almost always has a coattail effect

So if we can win in 2016, we should be able to expect a net gain of Senate seats, and House seats as well.

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 10:09 PM

15. but how many seats?

probably depends on the margin of victory, a narrow WH win by either party probably won't get much senate seats

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Response to pstokely (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 11:04 PM

16. I assume you're right

The larger the margin, the longer the coattail

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Response to kentuck (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:40 PM

14. I wouldn't count on a flip in PA

 

It's not out of the question, but there has to be a ton of negatives for the Republicans to be ousted in this state.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 01:17 PM

4. The map doesn't look that favorable to the Democrats.

Possibly enough there to pick up enough seats to get a slim majority in the Senate, but not much more. And that won't be easy unless some of the repub Senators retire.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 02:41 PM

7. Hopefully the Democratic Party will come up with a message to run on by them. K&R nt

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Response to myrna minx (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:28 PM

11. "See? We TOLD you that we aren't as bad as they are!"

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2014, 08:31 PM

12. Diaper Boy is up for re-election.

That ought to be interesting.

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