Ebola Outbreak Boosts Odds of Mutation Helping It Spread
By Robert Langreth, Michelle Fay Cortez and John Lauerman Oct 15, 2014 1:09 PM ET
The diagnosis of Ebola in a second health worker in Texas raises questions about how well researchers understand how the virus spreads and whether the virus is changing in a way that makes it easier to transmit.
I suspect it may have become more transmissible, said Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, who cited recent cases among health workers who thought they were taking careful precautions. The Dallas health worker case announced today does raise a red flag, but you cant prove anything from it, he said.
Longini is studying the probability that the secondary infection rate -- or how many fellow household members get the disease from an infected person -- is higher in the current outbreak than it has been in the past. A greater number of secondary infections per case could indicate that the virus has become more transmissible, he said.
The Ebola virus circulating in West Africa is already different from previous strains. While scientists dont fully understand what the changes mean, some are concerned that alterations in the virus that occur as that pathogen continues to evolve could pose new dangers.
Researchers have identified more than 300 new viral mutations in the latest strain of Ebola, according to research published in the journal Science last month. They are rushing to investigate if this strain of the disease produces higher virus levels -- which could increase its infectiousness.
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