Juan Cole: 7 Surprising Reasons Turkey Is Entering War on ISIL

[eridani]

http://www.juancole.com/2014/10/surprising-reasons-entering.html

These decisions are a significant turnabout from a month ago, when Turkey seemed reluctant to get involved. What is driving the ruling Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) to join the American effort against ISIL?

1. Its European entanglements: Turkey has gotten enormous pressure from President Obama, French president Francois Hollande and UK PM David Cameron to join. For their part, they need the largest Sunni country in west Asia on their side to avoid having the campaign against ISIL look like a Christian-Shiite Jihad against Sunnis. Turkey values its NATO membership and will want to fulfill obligations to other NATO members. President Tayyip Erdogan also very much wants Turkey to be accepted into the European Union, and may figure that proving Turkey’s worth in fighting a Muslim extremism that seems threatening to Europe may gain him some good will in the EU. Also, Turkey fears that if the West does manage to inflict attrition on ISIL, the Baathist regime of Bashar al-Assad might benefit, but Turkey wants to see it overthrown. Being in the coalition allows Turkey to demand that pressure be kept on al-Assad to step down.

2. Turkey has backed the Syrian National Coalition and the Free Syrian Army against the Baathist government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. The former two organizations are dominated by a Turkey ally– the Muslim Brotherhood. (Turkey’s own AKP is mildly inflected with a rhetoric of political Islam and just passed a provision allowing middle- and High School female students in state schools to veil, a practice that had been forbidden by 20th century secular governments). In the past couple of years, ISIL has consistently defeated the Free Syrian Army. Turkey wants to build back up the Free Syrian Army “moderate” opposition to both the Baath (socialist Arab nationalist) government in Damascus and extremists like ISIL.

3. Turkey is hoping to persuade the United States to impose a no-fly zone on northern Syria near Turkey. Ankara is convinced that the Syrian Baath government deliberately uses its air power against the Free Syrian Army so as to allow ISIL to win their battles. A no-fly zone would level the playing field, perhaps allowing the FSA finally to make progress and widen its territory. (In my own view, it is highly unlikely that the US will agree to patrol Syrian skies with F-18s, nor would it be legal in international law).