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librechik

(30,663 posts)
Fri Sep 26, 2014, 10:50 AM Sep 2014

It doesn't matter. None of it matters. Job One is Africa.


From the cdc report:

"Conclusion
The findings in this report underscore the substantial public health challenges posed by the predicted number of future Ebola cases. If conditions continue without scale-up of interventions, cases will continue to double approximately every 20 days, and the number of cases in West Africa will rapidly reach extraordinary levels. However, the findings also indicate that the epidemic can be controlled. Ensuring that approximately 70% of the patients are in ETUs is necessary, or, when ETUs are at capacity, that they are at home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). The existing capacity of ETUs to admit patients with Ebola is insufficient to stem the estimated increases in cases. Delays in increasing ETU capacity translates into a cost of additional cases. Results of the model support the need for more ETUs to be built, supplied, and staffed. Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely."

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w

"cases will continue to double approximately every 20 days, and the number of cases in West Africa will rapidly reach extraordinary levels."

in other words, without extraordinary intervention (BTW, every case requires 5 caregivers), the projected numbers will include more or less everybody on earth by autumn 2015. Not saying everybody will get sick. However, the math is an indication. Sure let's argue about the imaginary math. And read the article for the limitations of the study and the foolishness of future predictions, even scientific ones. But really. Wake up, folks.

And notice if you will, that the remedies call for many many more caseworkers and beds/facilities than are available in Africa.

" However, the findings also indicate that the epidemic can be controlled. " Lord, I hope so.

Get ready for the biggest mobilization that has happened since WWII. Except nobody is planning that yet.

6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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It doesn't matter. None of it matters. Job One is Africa. (Original Post) librechik Sep 2014 OP
This is frightening JustAnotherGen Sep 2014 #1
Yes indeed. And fruit bats are a favored vector, fly all over Africa. Even more frightening librechik Sep 2014 #2
That's an excellent point JustAnotherGen Sep 2014 #3
It's all well and good to be outraged about the people dying at the bullwinkle428 Sep 2014 #4
not to mention even more shameful issues librechik Sep 2014 #5
Yes BrotherIvan Sep 2014 #6

JustAnotherGen

(31,681 posts)
1. This is frightening
Fri Sep 26, 2014, 11:02 AM
Sep 2014

Burial Practices

Traditional burial of the body of a person who has died from Ebola could involve contact with body fluids, posing a risk for infection. For example, in northern Uganda, the body is prepared for burial by the paternal aunt (or if no paternal aunt exists, by an older woman on the paternal side of the family). After removing clothes from the body, the woman washes and dresses it. Funeral rituals include all family members washing their hands in a common bowl and touching the face of the deceased person in the open casket, referred to as a love touch. A white cloth is used to wrap the body, and the body is buried (8). Although this burial ritual is an example from Uganda, researchers have mentioned that similar practices occur throughout Africa (9). Because cultural practices regarding burial might vary by region, users might want to change the period of infectiousness in the model.


It also illuminates why aid workers trying to help/remove bodies are getting killed.

Their cultural practice/ritual (in the Uganda example) really does cause the disease to spread.

Still reading the link - because I'm looking to see if there is a potential for it to mutate to airborne.

librechik

(30,663 posts)
2. Yes indeed. And fruit bats are a favored vector, fly all over Africa. Even more frightening
Fri Sep 26, 2014, 11:07 AM
Sep 2014

blood samples taken from patients are being shipped around the world for analysis. Don
t these people understand the meaning of quarantine?

They are really trying to play down the airborne threat. But ebola has mutated 600 times in the last 50 years or so. And with fruit bats and airplanes, why bother? I will use that in my argument against the virus mutating if it gives me a chance.

bullwinkle428

(20,626 posts)
4. It's all well and good to be outraged about the people dying at the
Fri Sep 26, 2014, 11:20 AM
Sep 2014

hands of ISIL, but to turn around and make a declaration of "meh" regarding those dying of Ebola is incredibly hypocritical.

librechik

(30,663 posts)
5. not to mention even more shameful issues
Fri Sep 26, 2014, 11:34 AM
Sep 2014

regarding the third world. And nowadays everybody in power (with a few exceptions) hates the poor. Maybe they're thinking they'll be safe in their luxurious penthouses.

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