The inconsistency of polls.

[kentuck]

Last week, I saw a poll in Colorado where Udall was comfortably ahead of Cory Gardner. Today, a poll shows Gardner ahead. The same with the Governor's race. Hickenlooper was ahead about a week ago and yesterday, he was 10 points down??? Which are we supposed to believe?

Obviously, both cannot be right. Last week, I saw a poll that showed Alison Grimes ahead of Mitch McConnell by one point. This week, I have seen polls with McConnell ahead by as much as 8 points?
I'm sure this is going on across the country?

What could be the purpose of such polls? We are told they are just a snapshot. Are the American people that fickle? That they can totally change from one week to another?

Are they really any indication of how people will vote on election day? I tend to think not.

[Glassunion]

1. What could be the purpose of such polls?

You should take a poll to find out.

[Whiskeytide]

4. First we need a poll...

... on whether or not we need a poll.

[H2O Man]

2. At best, they

are a glimpse of opinions at a specific time; I've heard polls described as "snapshots."

Polls can also be used to manipulate public opinion.

[kentuck]

3. I tend to agree with the latter point.

It is a bit like psychological warfare.

[Spider Jerusalem]

5. Important things to look at:

Methodology, and sample size. Polling is tricky anyway (online polls are very much self-selecting and tend to be wildly inaccurate; telephone polls skew older because they phone landlines, and a lot of people with caller ID just won't answer calls from "unknown number", or whatever) .

[H2O Man]

6. Very important!

Thank you.

[rock]

7. I've discussed this point before and if you're not bored here it is

The mathematics and methods are there for highly reliable polls to be developed. But politics invariably enters the picture.

A public poll is a poll whose results will be made public. These are typically politically motivated and requested and paid for by someone who desires a specific outcome (which the pollster is aware of). "Push" polls naturally are of this type.

A private poll is a poll whose results will remain private. These too of course may be politically motivated. But these are requested and paid for by someone who desires to know the truth, at least as far statistics can provide it. Notice that "push" polls are never of this type.

And now a personal rant: it is possible that the polling firm has such integrity that they eschew money for providing "doctored" results but this is highly unlikely because every large organization is overrun with MBA's.

[bigwillq]

8. The only poll that matters is on election day.

I never pay any attention to any of these polls.