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Right now, the biggest problem is the House of Saud. It reach, do to the Trillions it get from oil, reaches from Egypt to Iraq to Afghanistan to Indonesia. The House of Saud has Washington in its pockets, do to its money, it also has Europe, Japan and Korea (and the rest of the "Asian Tigers"
in its pocket. The only countries NOT under its influence are Russia and Venezuela, because both are still net oil exporters. You can buy oil elsewhere, but the #1 and #2 producers are Russia and Saudi Arabia (The US is the #3 producer, but we are also an net oil IMPORTER).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production
While the US is the #3 producer of oil (and has been in the top three since 1859, and was the top oil producer till the 1980s). the US has been a net oil importer since 1969 (through that is expected to change by 2017, when the US is expected to become a year to year net exporter of oil, then reverse again by 2020 when the US will again become a net importer, oil from Fracking is expected to peak in 2017 then go into rapid decline).
Country.......................Barrels of Oil per day:
Saudi Arabia................6,880,000
Russia........................4,720,000
Iran...........................2,445,000
Iraq...........................2,390,000
Nigeria.......................2,341,000
United Arab Emirates....2,142,000
Angola.......................1,928,000
Venezuela..................1,645,000
Norway......................1,602,000
Canada......................1,576,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports
Thus any politician greatest fear is $10 a gallon gasoline, and that can occur just by cutting off ANY of the oil of the top ten oil producers.
We are NOT in the 1980s with its oil glut. The oil glut of the 1980s was so severe that the rapid drop in Soviet Oil production in the late 1980s (when it was in the top three oil producing states, a position it retained in the 1990s, its cut in production still exceeded anyone's oil production except the US and Saudi Arabia) and Iran and Iraq do to various embargo's and bombing of oil wells, had little affect on world wide oil production.
The oil glut is believe to be a factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union (Oil exports paid for imports, with the drop in the price of oil, the Soviet Union could not pay for its imports and thus was one of many reason for its collapsed).
That glut ended in the late 1990s and you started to see a slow steady increase in the price of oil. Iraq oil was NOT a big factor in the invasion of Iraq in 2002, for Iraqi exports were minimal do to the embargo. Since the ending of the War in Iraq, Iraqi oil exports has increase and is expected to pass Iran oil production within the next couple of years. Iranian oil exports are expected to fall do to depletion but Iran is expected to be a major oil exporters for years in the future.
England's North Sea production peaked in 1999 and England is now a net oil importer. The North Slope of Alaska is in rapid decline.
http://gov.alaska.gov/parnell/press-room/weekly-messages/increasing-production.html
http://kakoluri.com/2011/02/09/keys-to-understanding-the-petroleum-situation/
So is Mexican Oil Production:
http://kakoluri.com/2011/02/09/keys-to-understanding-the-petroleum-situation/
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21597890-scottish-nationalists-are-right-charge-britain-has-mismanaged-north-sea-oil-unionists
Mexican Oil Production drop:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25464.html
Now, some expect US Shale Oil and Iraqi oil to compensate for the above drop in production. The problem is, first, US Shale oil is looking more and more like a bubble, doomed to bust when oil production does NOT expand (and there are indications Shale oil has peak or will peak, the two big shale fields are NOT new finds, but oil fields known decades ago but never pumped for until oil hit $80 a barrel, they were unprofitable, the other shale fields have failed to produce the oil expected from them).
Second, Iraq is headed for Civil War, and that would take most Iraqi oil out of production for a few years. Worse, that Civil War can spill over to the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran for all four countries oil fields are all in the same oil region of the northern Persian Gulf Area. You move to far from that area, oil production drops.
Now, I bring this up for since about 2002, oil production has barely kept up with oil consumption. The increase in the price of oil has reduced some consumption, but not enough to see a substantial drop in the price of oil.
The problem is no one can afford to have any of the major producers and exporters of oil to stop production. If any of the top five producers see a drop in production, expect a massive increase in the price of oil.
Thus the policy of the US Government is to keep oil prices as low as possible. That includes allying with people who are paying terrorists to commit terror. i.e. Saudi Arabia. If you want to cut out support for the Taliban, if you want to cut out support for the radicals in Libya, Syria and Iraq, you have to cut out they supply of money, and that supply is from Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf Sunni countries (i.e. NOT Iran or Iraq).
If the US would go after that money, you would see a drying up of oil exports from the Persian Gulf and $10 to $20 a gallon gasoline. Putin would love it, for he would get most of the cash, but the price of gasoline will go up till people can no longer afford it. Think about it, people having to quit working because they can NOT pay for the gasoline to get to work.
Thus the US can NO nothing to achieve peace, for right now that require cracking down on Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Persian Gulf Arab States (Iran taking over those oil fields would be a good thing in the long run).
On the other hand, whoever is President when that occurs will become unpopular quickly for whatever he does, it will be wrong. Thus President Obama is caught between a Rock and a Hard Place, i.e. no matter what he does, he will be attacked for it. Thus Obama had continued Bush's policy of appeasing Saudi Arabia for the alternatives are disliked.
Sorry, we have to get rid of the House of Saud and one of the cost of such a move will be $10 to $20 a gallon gasoline. That maneuver will remove most tensions in the Middle East.
AS to the Ukraine. There are people in Washington who dislike Europe becoming energy dependent on Russia. They accept energy dependence on the Persian Gulf for they think the House of Saud is they friend. Thus the situation in the Ukraine seems to be an effort to make sure the Ukraine "join" Europe, but a Europe dominated by the US.
I do not see the hands of the House of Saud in the Ukraine, but I may be wrong. By cutting out Russia oil and natural gas exports to Europe, Europe only real long term alternative is the Persian Gulf. Thus Saudi Arabia may have paid for the mess in the Ukraine hoping Russia would invade. Instead Russia just took the Crimea and supported the Russian Speakers in the Eastern Ukraine. No overt invasion. Putin is no idiot, I suspect he smells a trap if in overtly invades the Ukraine thus his low key support. Putin's position for a Federation is a good compromise position. Something the people in the Ukraine dislike, but less then they dislike being part of Russia.
If the House of Saud is involved in the Ukraine, it is strictly economics. i.e. trying to reduce Russia Natural Gas Exports to Europe (and maybe cut out Natural Gas exports from Iran to Europe via Russia).
You must understand, if you ship Natural Gas by pipeline, the cost is cheap. If you ship Natural Gas by tanker, before you can ship such Natural Gas, the Natural Gas MUST be compressed. That compression consumes a huge amount of energy, roughly 1/3 of the energy content of the compressed natural gas. i.e. Compressed, Liquefied Natural Gas will cost at least 1/3 more then pipeline supplied natural gas. The House of Saud and its Persian Gulf allies see Natural Gas as they main export if and when oil declines, but they have at least a 1/3 price disadvantage to Russian and Iranian Natural gas, for those two countries can export they gas to Europe via pipelines.
That is enough to Saudi Arabia to support Ukrainian radicals. Thus even the Ukraine may be the fault of the House of Saud. The House of Saud is a Cancer we have to get rid of.
Cowboy on!
The worst thing we could have done to the Middle East is remove Saddam Hussein.
Afghanistan was also counterproductive.
At least we borrowed lots on money for unnecessary counterproductive wars.
I guess we showed them terrists!
