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Wed Dec 21, 2011, 01:04 PM

Is Romney starting to panic? (4th in a series of 78)

Growing up in a conservative Protestant community in a family that descended from Mormon royalty (and turned against it) I know for many Evangelicals they would rather vote for a socialist they despise than an active Mormon. The reasons for this are very specific and inherent in the Evangelical message but that explanation would bore most of you.

When you add the Tea Party resentment of Romney (he was roundly booed at the Republican/Tea Party convention in Utah last year) it is clear that there may be some support for Romney in the party but no big constituency loves him and in an all out fight he will lose support and gain no new supporters.

All of the polls have shown this to be the case, Palin/Perry/Cain/Gingrich spike and each lose 20 points and Romney picks up none.

Then there is IA.

He lost it before.

Now the latest polls shows him sinking again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elections/state/IA/?chart=12IAPresRepPR&chart_mode=new

None of the polls show Romney leading. All of the polls show that if Romney continues to fall he could be in 4th place in IA.

So is Romney crisscrossing the state trying to save a 2nd place win in IA.

Nope

He has headed back to NH.



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/21/romney_begins_new_hampshire_swing.html


Mr. Romney’s support in New Hampshire “is being compromised in almost every demographic by a different candidate,” said Michael Dennehy, a longtime Republican strategist in the state who is unaffiliated with a campaign. “His support among conservative voters is being challenged by Newt Gingrich; his support from libertarian, outside conservatives is under siege by Ron Paul; and his support from undeclared, independent voters is being compromised by Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.”


The Romney campaign, Mr. Dennehy said, “won’t say they’re worried, but there’s no doubt that they’re concerned.”

Stuart Stevens, a top strategist for Mr. Romney, said the campaign was “always worried” and played down any suggestion that the tour of the state reflected deeper unease. “It’s all we do is worry,” he said.

. . .

“If they don’t win here, there really isn’t much of a game plan,” said Jamie Burnett, Mr. Romney’s political director in New Hampshire in 2008 and a political consultant in New Hampshire who is not working for any of the Republican candidates. “That would effectively end their campaign.”







Romney is not going to emerge the leader after South Carolina, the Republicans having changed to proportional primaries will continue to Super Tuesday which will further fracture the race and lead to an open convention. cue a draft to a Republican Governor.

link to related subjects: http://www.democraticunderground.com/100245248


I know, I know, it will never happen.

So why is the Romney campaign so panicked? What do their internals show?

13 replies, 2457 views

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Reply Is Romney starting to panic? (4th in a series of 78) (Original post)
grantcart Dec 2011 OP
cthulu2016 Dec 2011 #1
snooper2 Dec 2011 #2
northoftheborder Dec 2011 #3
TlalocW Dec 2011 #4
grantcart Dec 2011 #7
cliffordu Dec 2011 #5
Johnny2X2X Dec 2011 #6
grantcart Dec 2011 #8
Bucky Dec 2011 #9
TlalocW Dec 2011 #10
grantcart Dec 2011 #13
grantcart Dec 2011 #11
NNN0LHI Dec 2011 #12

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 01:09 PM

1. It is possible that the establishment is blind to the Gingrich thing.

Gingrich is, in informed opinion, considered no more a serious contender than Paul. Everyone inside knows what a hated psycho he is.

But if Romeny can't win then Gingrich kind of has to win by default. He has name recognition and I doubt anyone has enough money to saturate dozens of real (large) states with the requisite negative advertising.

If not Romney, who?

I fear Perry. A lot. I worry that if Gingrich is destroyed then Perry will win SC and away we go.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 01:11 PM

2. I am happy to be alive and able to witness the biggest GOP clusterfuck

 

of the century


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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 01:27 PM

3. Interesting.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:16 PM

4. Mitt will win it (nomination), but he'll limp bloody and shredded over the finish line

Oh, they'll have a big celebration and everything, but hardly anyone outside Mitt's circle will truly be celebrating.

And when it comes to the election, there is going to be a massive inertia for republicans to overcome to get out the vote - Mitt doesn't connect with people; he's a flip-flopper; he's not conservative enough, and the huge problem is he's a Mormon, and the religious nutcases of the GOP (i.e. their base) have spent too many years - from the top religious media pundits like Falwell, etc. to the pastors of the smallest backwater churches in the south - calling Mormonism a cult (it is). They're all going to try and ignore the past, do a 180, and jump on the Mitt bandwagon with various degrees of enthusiasm since it's not Mitt they want elected but Obama defeated, but it will be hard to get their flocks geared up to vote for him.

TlalocW

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Response to TlalocW (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:25 PM

7. Romney would be the best match up for us.


The President would win but more importantly the Republican base and the Tea Party add ons would be largely asleep and not bringing out the turnout which would benefit their Senate and Congressional races.

But the way that Republican leadership looks at it is this:

He was a terrible campaigner in 2008 and couldn't beat McCain, who was also an easy mark.

He can't beat the current field, even when it is a) split up and b) populated by nutjobs.

No candidate will go to the convention with more than 35% of the delegates.

They will start a draft campaign for a new candidate, it has already started.

This is the sideshow.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:17 PM

5. kicked and rekk'd

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:22 PM

6. Panic

It's the whole Republican Party who should panic, they don't have a candidate who has much of a chance to beat Obama and they are destroying that little chance with Primaries that will go on and on.

Obama in a landslide and we take the House and hold the Senate. The best the GOP can hope for at this point is to hold the House.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #6)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:28 PM

8. Except the Republican Party changed the rules for proportional primaries much like us.



That will give them a second chance because no candidate will have enough to secure the nomination.

They can start a draft movement and draft anyone of the 29 sitting Governors, including ones from key states like Indiana, and Virginia, or recent ex Governors like Jeb Bush or Tim Pawlenty.

Now if you were a big wig in the Republican party what would you do, go with this group or flush it down at the convention and start over?

I wish you were right but, ironically, the worse this field is the worse it is for us as it makes it more likely that they will go outside and do an end run and pick somebody much more professional.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:40 PM

9. They want Jeb. No, really.

Won't happen, I'd bet. But the longer the race drags on, the more pressure will build for Jeb to tip his hat.

Could Jeb really be waiting for 2016, just like Mike Huckabee?

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Response to Bucky (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 02:44 PM

10. I guarantee Jeb is considering 2016

At the same time putting out feelers for 2012 to see which would be best for him to try for the presidency. It was supposed to be Jeb and not W in 2000, and there are a number of reasons the Bush Crime Family want Jeb to run - pure ego, vengeance from Poppy against people who dared speak bad about his boys, to shift more money and power toward them, to more effectively cover up all the illegal stuff W. did, etc.

TlalocW

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Response to TlalocW (Reply #10)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 03:40 PM

13. I agree 2016.


He won't have to run against the Obama juggernaut.

They know that the next few years will be mostly rebuilding anyway.

Let Obama get things on track, fixed up and then run on another tax cut scheme.

In the meantime he can go out and score some big money, sit on boards and start going across the country helping Repubs get elected and build up IOUs.


2012 is still too early for another Bush.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 03:20 PM

11. I think that there will be a stand in so that Jeb can be ready for 2016


Daniels is a tight Bush supporter, he is my guess.

Whispers for a draft Daniels campaign have already started (see link in OP)

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2011, 03:21 PM

12. (4th in a series of 78) LOL

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