Florida politics changing...huge growth in NPAs. Going to be hard to predict election results.

[madfloridian]

Big surge in no-party voters could reshape Florida politics

Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political scientist who closely studies voting patterns, said the biggest drop in early voting between the 2008 and 2012 elections in Florida was among voters of no party. He said that's because the major parties direct political messages at their own voters, not independents.

"They're not getting steered to cast absentee ballots. They're not getting mobilized on Election Day," Smith said. "If you're registering as an NPA, the two parties are less likely to think that you can be persuaded."

Statewide Florida Electorate

Republican: 4,128,098 (35.2 percent)

Democrat: 4,587,502 (39 percent)

NPA & other: 3,023,401 (25.8 percent)

Statewide total: 11,739,001

Here is a list from the article of the Republicans, Democrats, and NPA/Others for the 8 counties in which NPA/Others outnumber either Democrats or Republicans. Usually Republicans.

Most of these counties are South Florida, a few in Central Florida. North Florida is another matter.

County>Republicans>Democrats>NPA/Other*>Total county
(* Statewide, 89 percent of all voters in this category are registered as No Party Affiliation)

Broward 233,771 537,229 276,275 1,047,275

Collier 92,456 44,066 46,495 183,017

Lee 169,353 114,543 114,887 398,783

Miami-Dade 362,284 550,668 369,762 1,282,714

Okaloosa 70,932 24,649 25,821 121,402

Orange 203,759 299,473 206,639 709,871

Osceola 41,329 69,086 51,188 161,603

Palm Beach 235,720 367,833 238,054 841,607

Those with no party affiliation, those who say they are undecided are going to play a huge roll in coming elections.

AND the polls often fail to show these folks and to give a true prediction of which way the wind is blowing.

[blkmusclmachine]

1. NPA's are where the black boxes can do their "magic."

[TheNutcracker]

3. Yes, in the end the electronic boxes take care of it all. Fla needs a 3-5% audit

Charlie gutted the vote counting laws as gov, when he gave them their paper ballot back.

It could come back to bite him in the ass.

[TheNutcracker]

2. No change if Florida continues their CLOSED PRIMARY system...

Those deciding in the primaries in Florida only make up a small portion of the vote. When Florida activists get behind people in the community that people like, it always changes to "who the party wants" and democratic candidates get chased away, ala Jessica Ehrlich in the 13th vs. Alex Sink.

I know several former democrats who changed to NPA, because of this very reason. It appears to be the operating norm these days. The party forgets the "base", each election cycle. The gerrymandering is so bad in Florida, the only democrats are usually those who "used" to be republicans.

I've heard the same complaints from Republicans, who are now NPA's.

The closed system is what usually gives them "shit" and shittier". I also know, that everyone is tired of it.