Cantor pollster on why he was so wrong: Those damn Dems voted!!!!

[WI_DEM]

GOP John McLaughlin, whose firm last week showed Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) leading in his primary race by 34 points, offered National Journal several explanations for why his candidate actually lost the election by 10 points: "unexpectedly high turnout, last-minute Democratic meddling, and stinging late attacks on amnesty and immigration."

Said McLaughlin: "Primary turnout was 45,000 2 years ago. This time 65,000. This was an almost 50% increase in turnout... Untold story is who were the new primary voters? They were probably not Republicans."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/06/11/cantor_pollster_explains_why_he_was_way_off.html

[NV Whino]

1. Aw...

[underpants]

2. YES!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025080123

[RobertEarl]

3. Free and open elections are to blame

How dare people get to vote how they want.

When they do, this is what happens. Rulers get deposed.

[Gothmog]

4. This makes me smile

[ucrdem]

5. So McLaughlin's complete metaphysical certitude turned out not to be.

There's a surprise.

[global1]

6. Really - If It Was Dems Coming Out To Vote To Mess Things Up For Cantor - A Good Sign......

We always hear that Dems don't turn out for midterm elections. If it was the Dems that spoiled Cantor in this primary - I see this as a good sign that Dems are fired up enough to turn out in droves in Nov.

The Dem Party as a whole needs to take this and run with it. They need to mount a National Campaign of GOTV in November - to take back the House and strengthen their hold in the Senate.

If we were fed up with Repubs in general because of their conservative RW ways - just think if these Tea Partiers take control.

This needs to be used to fire up the electorate.

If it worked for this race - I believe it could work in general for the country as a whole.

[Nay]

12. It's sad that Dem voters had to mess with a Pub primary to get rid of

Cantor -- it would have been better to have a strong and well-funded Dem candidate at any time in the past 10 years to defeat Cantor that way. But nooooooo, the Dem national leadership never wanted to mess with Cantor for some reason although everyone hated the guy. So, it looks like a letter from Cooter about crossover voting in the Pub primary was what got Cantor booted. Dems REALLY need to think about why this was necessary. What will also be instructive is the amount of funding that the D national leadership will provide to the D candidate, Trammel, as he faces the tea partier Brat. If Trammel gets NO money and NO personal appearances by influential national Dems, we have to wonder why.

BTW, global1, crossover voting won't work in most of the rest of the country because it is not allowed; you have to be a Pub to vote in Pub primaries and a Dem to vote in Dem primaries in most places.

[global1]

14. I Think You Misunderstood Me....

I'm saying if Dems were fired up enough in Cantor's race to come out to vote and crossover - then we need to channel that energy to get them to come out to vote in Nov. Nov is the big enchilada. There is no crossover in Nov - unless Repub voters turn on the Tea Party candidate and vote Dem in that election.

Crossover's like happen yesterday only happen in primaries and only in those states that allow it. I know that.

I think most people in the country both Dems and Repubs are fed up with nothing getting done in Congress. If they perceive that these Tea Party candidates will even be more of a problem - I believe that this is enough to motivate people to come out and vote in Nov midterms.

We've always been hearing that there is a low turnout for the midterms. I think if the Dems were smart and really made an effort to tell this story to get people out to vote - that we can win the House back and strengthen our hold of the Senate.

Look how much the pollsters were off in this race. They completely blew it. I think that the polls that are saying the Repubs will hold the House because of gerrymandering and they have a shot at taking the Senate are off as well. Either they are kidding themselves and trying to make Nov look better than it is or they don't really have a handle on the electorate and how pissed off it is.

[Nay]

15. Sorry. I see that you were talking about turnout. However, I have since

reviewed the precinct-by-precinct election returns and I have grave doubts that Dem turnout did much, if anything, to defeat Cantor. Traditionally Dem-leaning precincts (the 4 or 5 in Richmond City) had very low turnout -- the lowest of all -- so I have to think that Dems in Pub-leaning precincts came out in the same low percentages.

However, the most conservative precincts voted overwhelmingly for Brat, indicating to me that it was Pubs turning out in droves to vote out Cantor, who was truly hated by a lot of people for his arrogance and general assholiness. Some conservative precincts voted 2 to 1 in Brat's favor. It's not Dems doing this -- there aren't enough of them, trust me. And if Dems were motivated by Cooter's letter, they would have turned out in droves in the Richmond precincts as well. They didn't.

The pollster was an internal pollster. I bet he just went through the motions, thinking his incumbent guy was in no trouble. Sorta like Romney's pollster did. You tell the boss what he wants to hear without really doing any polling -- that's too much like work.

I DO think that more VA dems will vote this November because the hated incumbent is gone and they feel they have a chance to beat an unknown Pub. I DO NOT think this will be easy. There are a lot of teabaggers, fundamentalists, ignoramuses, libertarians, and mindless flagwavers in this state. The national Dem leadership needs to support Trammel with money, feet on the ground, face time from Obama, etc., to win this race. Brat, although he is an unprepared idiot (doesn't have a position on min wage even tho he's an econ professor?? WTF???), will appeal to idiots just like himself. Don't underestimate that. The idiots will NOT vote for the Dem, no matter what. Just because they didn't like Cantor doesn't mean they're leaning left. They aren't. The Dems will have to institute a major, monied campaign to beat Brat.

From past performance of the national Dem leadership here in VA, I'm betting they won't give a hoot who wins. Sad to say.

[Fred Sanders]

7. The extra voters were insane Republicans marched to the polls by Fox News and Hate media.

[sufrommich]

9. This. I'd also add that republicans who would

have voted for Cantor stayed home because they were sure he would win easily. "The democrats did it" is a facile explanation for a badly run campaign.

[underpants]

10. You are correct but....

We Dems did have an impact. Just sayin'

[Nay]

13. It's hard to tell at this point. Turnout was actually very high, but we don't

know who turned out. I don't think there is a way to tell unless they did exit polling, which I don't think they did because it was not considered to be a major contest. We really don't know if Pubs stayed home; lots of Pubs did hate Cantor for some good reasons.

I am a Dem in Cantor's district and have been dancing all day about his defeat, but I worry about the lackadaisical support the Dem leadership has always given to anyone who ran against Cantor. Frankly, a large check should be hitting Trammel's account right now, but I doubt that's happened. I'm sure Brat got his tea party dough deposited, but the Dem national leadership never seems to financially support its own candidates in the states. If Trammel gets no money from the coffers, we Dems will know that the national leadership really doesn't care if Dems win -- they're in it for their own profit only.

[SoCalDem]

8. Hey John....

[lpbk2713]

11. Reminiscent of Limbaugh's Operation Chaos

What's good for the goose ...

The big difference is when his mouth breathers tried it the result was a collossal failure.

[rhett o rick]

16. His explanation for incorrectly predicting the results is that he incorrectly

predicted the turnout and incorrectly predicted the views of the voters. He failed miserably at his job. Duh!!

[CatWoman]

17. WRONG!!!!

[kelliekat44]

18. Just like some GOPers voted for Obama in 2008. Thought he would lose but knocked off Hillary. nt