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Fri May 30, 2014, 12:12 AM

Steve Israel's Reptilian Plan To Keep John Boehner On As Speaker

This morning the DCCC announced that they had reserved $43.5 million in broadcast and cable television time in 36 congressional districts-- 19 to defend incumbents (+ an open blue district) and 19 held by Republicans. If they win every single race-- which they won't (more on that below)-- they will still fail to take back the House. They call it "the biggest ad buy in history." A more useful frame may be "the biggest waste of donor money in history."

Let's get the defensive plays out of the way first:

AZ-01- Ann Kirkpatrick (New Dem)- 51.68
AZ-02- Ron Barber (Blue Dog)- 25.00
AZ-09- Kyrsten Sinema (Blue Dog)- 31.79
CA-07- Ami Bera (New Dem)- 48.43
CA-26- Julia Brownley- 64.78
CA-52- Scott Peters (New Dem)- 46.84
CT-05- Elizabeth Esty (New Dem)- 72.61
FL-26- Joe Garcia (New Dem)- 42.11
GA-12- John Barrow (Blue Dog)- 22.64
IL-10- Brad Schneider (New Dem)- 51.27
IL-12- Bill Enyart- 58.06
MA-06- John Tierney- 89.81
MN-07- Collin Peterson (Blue Dog)- 38.99
MN-08- Rick Nolan (Progressive)- 84.52
NH-01- Carol Shea Porter- 75.84
NH-02- Ann Kuster (New Dem)- 68.15
NY-01- Tim Bishop- 75.47
NY-21- (open)
TX-23- Pete Gallego (Blue Dog)- 32.05
WV-03- Nick Rahall (Blue Dog)- 42.77

Most of the incumbents above need triage because they have alienated their bases by voting with the Republicans more than with their own party on crucial, core issues. Many progressives will just stay home on election day, the same way they did in 2010. The number next to their names in their ProgressivePunch crucial vote score for 2013-14. Anything below a 60 indicates someone is from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. Then you find "Democrats" like Barrow, Barber, Sinema, Peterson, Gallego who vote with the GOP so frequently that they should be treated by voters as though they are Republicans. The DCCC will often be castigating Republicans on votes that devastate working families and harm the national security that find these members across the aisle. It makes the DCCC sound as hypocritical as they are.

As for the targeting in red-held districts, Israel is out for failure again, without even discussing how he was able to protect favored GOP incumbents like Ileana Ros Lehtinen in blue districts by making sure no Democrats qualified for the ballot. Once again, he's ignoring opportunities to take out vulnerable Republicans-- and even empty red seats-- to bolster his weak, corrupt,conservative recruits. No ad reservations in winnable districts like Fred Upton's MI-06, John Kline's MN-02, David Joyce's OH-14, Sean Duffy's WI-07, Paul Ryan's WI-01 or the CA-25 seat abandoned by Buck McKeon. All the Democrats running in these races-- Paul Clements, Mike Obermueller, Michael Wager, Kelly Westlund, Rob Zerban, Lee Rogers-- have one thing in common: they are all progressives and everyone in Washington knows Steve Israel is more comfortable with Republicans than with progressive Democrats. Here's the DCCC list, along with the district PVI:

AR-02 (open) R+8
CA-10- Jeff Denham- R+1
CA-21- David Valadao- D+2
CA-31 (open) D+5
CO-06- Mike Coffman- D+1 R+6
IA-03 (open)- even PVI
IA-04- Steve King- R+5
IL-13- Rodney Davis- even PVI
MI-01- Dan Benishek- R+5
MI-07- Tim Walberg- R+3
MI-08 (open) R+2
MI-11- Kerry Bentivolio- R+4
NJ-03 (open) R+1
NY-11- Michael Grimm- R+2
NY-23- Tom Reed- R+3
PA-06 (open) R+2
PA-08- Mike Fitzpatrick- R+1
VA-10 (open) R+2

- See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2014/05/steve-israels-reptilian-plan-to-keep.html#sthash.OjqTQhfi.KTbYSCmk.dpuf

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