Ukraine is really in a tough spot.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

The way I see it:

After the Maidan protests, Yanukovych fled the country and an interim government took hold until the scheduled elections can take place in May. While as legitimate as you can possibly expect out of the muddy situation (the fact of the matter is no one wants Yanukoych back. No one. Not even his own party), the interim government still realizes that they are going to be under very tight scrutiny. Russia has continuously hammered the interim government as "illegitimate", "fascist" and alleged that Russians living in Ukraine have been oppressed and threatened. Facts without any real substantiation, but facts nonetheless repeated by others (including by some here at DU).

So now you have the current situation with the Pro-Russian militants in Eastern Ukraine. And that's exactly what they are: militants. Not protesters in public squares, but people occupying government buildings and airfield. People who are armed.....not just with sticks and rocks and malatov cocktails, but AK-47s and grenade launchers.

There's also not a whole lot of them, compared to actual protest movements....but more than enough to make a stand.

My gut tells me these militants are not any one group but a mixture of several groups. First, I do think there are some ethnic Russians who are native Eastern Ukrainians. But I also think we have Berkut--the notorious disbanded riot police who cracked down violently on Maidan protesters and after leaving Kyiv went down to Crimea where they were seen roughing up journalists and dissenters. And finally I honestly believe there are Russian military agents mixing in with these groups and providing material support.

So these armed militants occupy various government buildings and installations in eastern Ukraine and frankly it's a source of major embarrassment for the Ukrainian government. Except there's no clear response to the situation.

Yes, the Ukrainian military could move in swiftly, guns a blazing. But even if the only casualties are the militants themselves--and say, not sympathizing civilians near these occupied structures, the spin will undoubtedly be that the Ukrainian government is cracking down on "civilians" or "dissidents" or "fellow Ukrainian citizens" or the like. And bear in mind the new government was just bore out of a situation where the Ukrainian president was shooting protesters, so they do not want to be perceived as hypocrites, no matter how fatally flawed the analogy is between the Maidan protesters and the armed militants currently occupying government buildings.

That, and the even worse specter of the Russian regular army amassed on the Ukrainian border, who quite possibly could be called by Moscow to move on in to "save" the "oppressed" Russians of Eastern Ukraine (and then stay a while....until annexation, really). And sadly, in all likelihood the Ukrainian military would be mismatched against the stronger Russian forces and there would be a lot of blood lost.

On the other hand, do nothing and the Ukrainian government is perceived as weak and ineffectual as the Russian flag is flown over government buildings inside of Ukraine. That's not really going to win them much popular support amongst Ukrainians either, long wary of Russia's meddling, dominance and influence of Ukraine.

So what appears to have resulted is that the Ukrainian military has moved into the troubled areas, but really aren't doing anything because of legitimate fear of what the response might be. And the result is sad situations where militants end up seizing Ukrainian tanks without any resistance, and fly the Russian flags on top of them.

I guess the moral of the story is that armed thuggery--even on the semi-paramilitary level--is far more effective than one might initially think in a theater such as Ukraine and the giant bear that lies across the border. (One might be tempted to draw parallels to the events in Nevada this past week, although I don't know how apt an analogy that might be.) Unfortunately, the ultimate result is a whole lot of questions, and very few answers.

[malaise]

1. Looks like you missed the part where the Ukranian army in tanks

placed Russian flags on the tanks and handed the tanks to the Russian speaking folks.

This mess is linked to non-stop interference from all imperialist powers - on all sides.
The West are hardly the saints here.

This is no Nevada as Ukraine is neither a US colony nor a US state.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

3. You would agree that Russian flags on Ukrainian tanks is Exhibit 1 of imperialistic behavior, right?

And frankly, no one's place American flags anywhere in Ukraine, so it's silly to claim both sides are equally at fault here.

This is not a populist independence movement in Eastern Ukraine. This is an armed paramilitary operation meant to effectuate annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia without a blatant, in your face invasion, by Russian regulars. It's time to be honest here.

[ballyhoo]

5. Negative. The proximate cause

of the turmoil going on in Russia right now is Victoria Nuland and her team of incompetent nincompoops, and when WW3 finally starts historians will see what she and her string-pullers did as the the straw that broke that camel's back, finally forcing the World Bankers to make a move. Putin saw the opportunity and seized it. Having said that, it is still a long, long way to Moldova.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

6. Honestly, you people really are elevating Victoria Nuland....

.....to one of the most powerful people on earth, able to foment regime change with a snap of her fingers and an extra special cookie recipe. It's comical, yet sad.

Interesting how you describe the situation as "the turmoil going on in Russia...."

[ballyhoo]

8. Snap of the fingers

and 7-9 billions dollars. So far it's just turmoil. When I see T-90's blowing up buildings at will I will call it something else.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

9. So the hundreds of thousands of protesters at Maidan were just bored CIA employees...

....with nothing to gripe about?

[ballyhoo]

10. They were doing the will of those with money and the ability to hurt

people--like always. We get our info from different sources obviously. What chess move is made next will determine what Putin will do and how aggressively he will do it. He has four choices. The flyovers of the Cook in the Black Sea without response is a clue what will happen next. Putin is now trifling with his foe. That Russian pilot is not acting unilaterally. This is a game of who blinks and the repercussions thereafter.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

11. They were Ukrainians concerned about Ukraine.

But if you seek to deny that, then so be it.

[ballyhoo]

12. I deny that without reservation. Additionally, except

for certain Tartar factions, most Crimeans wanted Russian rule. I also maintain the Crimeans will do far far better under Russian rule than Ukrainian rule. East Ukraine? Not sure yet; my info comes from Turkey--not Ukraine--and he is not there right now.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

13. And Maidan?

What did the people at Maidan want?

[ballyhoo]

14. They wanted independency with exchange with other

cultures including Russians but the US changed all that via Nuland. And Maidan had to go along. I'm sure when Texas leaves the US, there will be people who don't want it but are forced to go along. As you know, everyone doesn't win in these battles. However, having said that, you seem very sincere in your beliefs, I cannot fault you for them. You may know that which I do not. If things don't improve within one year after Russia takes over Crimea, I will rethink my position. But after HR 2847 goes into effect 7-1-2014, we will have much bigger things to worry about, imo.

[seveneyes]

2. Burning the town square with used tires was not a good move by any standard

There are much better ways to address concerns with the government.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

4. Still no where close to the events we are seeing now. nt

[The Magistrate]

7. A Sound Analysis, Sir