Sat Nov 9, 2013, 10:44 AM

7962 (11,841 posts)

Last night I saw why the GOP will lose again in '16

I caught the end of the O'Reilly show over on fox. He reads a few letters/emails at the end of each show. When I came in he had just started that segment. He read 2 from people who were commenting on a previous show where O'reilly must have been talking about Christie being the apparent front runner for the next election. Both of these commenters basically said this (not exact quotes) "If the GOP nominates another moderate like Christie, I will not support him or vote for him" O'Reilly pointed this out as a problem that may be overcome by Christie GETTING more independent voters. Here is MY theory, which I have posted in a few OP comments recently.

This is why they will lose. There are only 2 scenarios for the GOP.
1- They nominate Christie, or some other seemingly "moderate" candidate. The far right, tea party types, etc, refuse to support him/her and stay home. The extra independent votes just equals it out and there is no vote gain. They lose.
2- The "conservatives" FINALLY get their long-awaited wish of getting a TRUE CONSERVATIVE candidate. A Cruz/Palin, whatever. They flock to the polls, but nobody else does and again, they lose. I wonder what their excuse would be then? Blame the liberal media?

And thats what is different here. Obviously Hillary is the frontrunner for '16. Many here on DU do not want her as the candidate, but 90% of those, from the comments I've read, WILL vote for her over a GOP candidate. Because staying home is almost the same as voting for the opponent. The GOP righties are too stupid to realize this and will continue to cut their own throats. You already see it with them running primary opponents against incumbents.

So thats my take on it. I dont see any scenario where the GOP will realize their folly and come together. The Democrats almost always have in the end.

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72 replies	Author	Time	Post
Last night I saw why the GOP will lose again in '16 (Original post)	7962	Nov 2013	OP
No one on the right seems to be mentioning Jeb. It's early days but Jeb will be there with	monmouth3	Nov 2013	#1
It's a nice thought, but in the end...	M.G.	Nov 2013	#5
According to the polls, several million GOP voters stayed home in 12	7962	Nov 2013	#13
I have a Christian Friend who voted for McCain in 08, & Obama in 12	Heather MC	Nov 2013	#25
I thought he was a Muslim.	demosincebirth	Nov 2013	#51
Fortunately she never believed that	Heather MC	Nov 2013	#52
I know several super conservative fundamental Christians who believe that the Mormon faith is ...	spin	Nov 2013	#56
Yep, there you have it. Again, most here WILL vote for Hillary if she's the candidate.	7962	Nov 2013	#57
Fewer people voted in '12	M.G.	Nov 2013	#58
Yes, I believe you're right. That would explain why Corporate Media is on full attack	BlueCaliDem	Nov 2013	#8
I don't know, even Jeb's mom said we've had enough Bushes!	7962	Nov 2013	#10
Odd because I am hearing more and more the name Jeb	4dsc	Nov 2013	#37
That is what I'm saying. I think he's waiting until the amateurs are out of the way...LOL..	monmouth3	Nov 2013	#43
Yep...	awoke_in_2003	Nov 2013	#48
I would think the Bush name is still mud.	gopiscrap	Nov 2013	#54
The only difference betweeh "bush" and "shit" is "it", so if you think Jeb is it for 2016 . . .	hatrack	Nov 2013	#72
well, Jeb has unfortunately got the Bush name and that brand ain't so good...	CTyankee	Nov 2013	#55
Jeb may actually be the better of the 2 Bush's (GHWB & GWB) but I don't think the Country is	Fla Dem	Nov 2013	#67
As long as the "My Way or the Highway" far right holds any leadership positions...	CincyDem	Nov 2013	#2
Making Christie look like a moderate makes sense to me.	QuestForSense	Nov 2013	#34
I don't even think Christie will get the nomination	Shankapotomus	Nov 2013	#3
I don't think Christie could survive an actual	arthritisR_US	Nov 2013	#4
Just how many far-right assholes are out there anyway...	TreasonousBastard	Nov 2013	#6
You might be right, but	Proud Public Servant	Nov 2013	#7
Exactly. They won't stay home when there is a Democrat to froth at the mouth about	BlueStreak	Nov 2013	#12
I agree. Hillary-hate among RWers will bring them out in droves. Does	Nay	Nov 2013	#28
Until we can break up this two-party oligopoly	BlueStreak	Nov 2013	#40
They WILL rally around him and only Hill can beat him	Cosmocat	Nov 2013	#27
+100	truebluegreen	Nov 2013	#42
When the fringe becomes the 2nd base...If the GOP picks Christie,	NightWatcher	Nov 2013	#9
I agree. Another Perot scenario.	7962	Nov 2013	#11
Hillary's campaign director could be Socks the cat	NightWatcher	Nov 2013	#20
Maybe *Tally could be her campaign director.	Beacool	Nov 2013	#62
I don't think Christie could survive the primaries	Brainstormy	Nov 2013	#14
I think it's a given that the President elected in 2016 will be a Democrat.	randome	Nov 2013	#15
I wouldn't be so sure, nothing is a given in politics.	Beacool	Nov 2013	#17
I'm not advocating complacency but there comes a point where triage is needed.	randome	Nov 2013	#18
I sure as hell wouldn't bet the rent money on that. I think "teh crazy" has a	Nay	Nov 2013	#31
They can only cheat at the margins, though. Admittedly, that's been enough up to now.	randome	Nov 2013	#33
True, but as the Bush/Gore contest showed, they only have to cheat at	Nay	Nov 2013	#35
I will support the dem candidate over any repub	n2doc	Nov 2013	#16
The republicans will come together and support	wilsonbooks	Nov 2013	#19
/\/\/\/\ yes/\/\/\/\	dembotoz	Nov 2013	#21
Hold your nose and spend some time on the repub sites;	7962	Nov 2013	#59
Yep	gollygee	Nov 2013	#70
As of this week Christie is the Republican to beat, but he may end up like Giuliani.	Beacool	Nov 2013	#22
Three years? Heck three months...even three weeks	skepticscott	Nov 2013	#50
REpublicans will vote for whoever they nominate just as dems will vote for	abelenkpe	Nov 2013	#23
and far too many don't vote at all. That's what has to change.	mountain grammy	Nov 2013	#24
24 GOP Senate seats up for grabs in 2016. It's over.	Faygo Kid	Nov 2013	#26
^^^This^^^	fredamae	Nov 2013	#29
"Now? Silence-even when I ask them."	BumRushDaShow	Nov 2013	#38
I am aware of the DOJ's actions	fredamae	Nov 2013	#45
+1	uponit7771	Nov 2013	#65
Don't assume they won't turn out.	Gore1FL	Nov 2013	#30
It's way too early to assume anything.	HappyMe	Nov 2013	#32
They aren't going to run Christi....	Spitfire of ATJ	Nov 2013	#36
Let me an a cautionary note.	s-cubed	Nov 2013	#39
Don't be fooled. Christie is a hard right conservative. He is NOT a moderate.	totodeinhere	Nov 2013	#41
That ploy worked -- he just won re-election.	QuestForSense	Nov 2013	#47
The Tea Party would rather lose than compromise their ultraconservative values...	cynatnite	Nov 2013	#44
+10000!!	7962	Nov 2013	#60
Or the commenters were lying	Prophet 451	Nov 2013	#46
I don't think the GOP stay at home as much as young Dems do, historically.	ancianita	Nov 2013	#49
We learned a bitter lesson in 2010. It never should have happened.	CTyankee	Nov 2013	#53
One reason they might not lose	Doctor_J	Nov 2013	#61
I'm surprised it took 61 posts for that one.	7962	Nov 2013	#63
Waiting for the Repugs to self-destruct might work. A better plan would be ...	Scuba	Nov 2013	#64
They lie	workinclasszero	Nov 2013	#66
Don't be so smug. Our side must work to register more voters and GOTV at election	bluestate10	Nov 2013	#68
I still see Christie as the nominee in 2016	BlueEye	Nov 2013	#69
Pretty much my point. These tea party folks are hard headed. A LOT will NOT vote for him.	7962	Nov 2013	#71

Response to 7962 (Original post)

Sat Nov 9, 2013, 10:50 AM

monmouth3 (3,871 posts)

1. No one on the right seems to be mentioning Jeb. It's early days but Jeb will be there with

bells on and all the money the Bush cabal can muster. Count on it.

Last night I saw why the GOP will lose again in '16

1. No one on the right seems to be mentioning Jeb. It's early days but Jeb will be there with

5. It's a nice thought, but in the end...

13. According to the polls, several million GOP voters stayed home in 12

25. I have a Christian Friend who voted for McCain in 08, & Obama in 12

51. I thought he was a Muslim.

52. Fortunately she never believed that

56. I know several super conservative fundamental Christians who believe that the Mormon faith is ...

57. Yep, there you have it. Again, most here WILL vote for Hillary if she's the candidate.

58. Fewer people voted in '12

8. Yes, I believe you're right. That would explain why Corporate Media is on full attack

10. I don't know, even Jeb's mom said we've had enough Bushes!

37. Odd because I am hearing more and more the name Jeb

43. That is what I'm saying. I think he's waiting until the amateurs are out of the way...LOL..

48. Yep...

54. I would think the Bush name is still mud.

72. The only difference betweeh "bush" and "shit" is "it", so if you think Jeb is it for 2016 . . .

55. well, Jeb has unfortunately got the Bush name and that brand ain't so good...

67. Jeb may actually be the better of the 2 Bush's (GHWB & GWB) but I don't think the Country is

2. As long as the "My Way or the Highway" far right holds any leadership positions...

34. Making Christie look like a moderate makes sense to me.

3. I don't even think Christie will get the nomination

4. I don't think Christie could survive an actual

6. Just how many far-right assholes are out there anyway...

7. You might be right, but

12. Exactly. They won't stay home when there is a Democrat to froth at the mouth about

28. I agree. Hillary-hate among RWers will bring them out in droves. Does

40. Until we can break up this two-party oligopoly

27. They WILL rally around him and only Hill can beat him

42. +100

9. When the fringe becomes the 2nd base...If the GOP picks Christie,

11. I agree. Another Perot scenario.

20. Hillary's campaign director could be Socks the cat

62. Maybe *Tally could be her campaign director.

14. I don't think Christie could survive the primaries

15. I think it's a given that the President elected in 2016 will be a Democrat.

17. I wouldn't be so sure, nothing is a given in politics.

18. I'm not advocating complacency but there comes a point where triage is needed.

31. I sure as hell wouldn't bet the rent money on that. I think "teh crazy" has a

33. They can only cheat at the margins, though. Admittedly, that's been enough up to now.

35. True, but as the Bush/Gore contest showed, they only have to cheat at

16. I will support the dem candidate over any repub

19. The republicans will come together and support

21. /\/\/\/\ yes/\/\/\/\

59. Hold your nose and spend some time on the repub sites;

70. Yep

22. As of this week Christie is the Republican to beat, but he may end up like Giuliani.

50. Three years? Heck three months...even three weeks

23. REpublicans will vote for whoever they nominate just as dems will vote for

24. and far too many don't vote at all. That's what has to change.

26. 24 GOP Senate seats up for grabs in 2016. It's over.

29. ^^^This^^^

38. "Now? Silence-even when I ask them."

45. I am aware of the DOJ's actions

65. +1

30. Don't assume they won't turn out.

32. It's way too early to assume anything.

36. They aren't going to run Christi....

39. Let me an a cautionary note.

41. Don't be fooled. Christie is a hard right conservative. He is NOT a moderate.

47. That ploy worked -- he just won re-election.

44. The Tea Party would rather lose than compromise their ultraconservative values...

60. +10000!!

46. Or the commenters were lying

49. I don't think the GOP stay at home as much as young Dems do, historically.

53. We learned a bitter lesson in 2010. It never should have happened.

61. One reason they might not lose

63. I'm surprised it took 61 posts for that one.

64. Waiting for the Repugs to self-destruct might work. A better plan would be ...

66. They lie

68. Don't be so smug. Our side must work to register more voters and GOTV at election

69. I still see Christie as the nominee in 2016

71. Pretty much my point. These tea party folks are hard headed. A LOT will NOT vote for him.