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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 09:46 AM

PPP Poll: Dems Could Win 'Sizable Majority' in House in 2014 - Pickup Opps in 49 of 61 Districts

PPP Poll: Dems Could Win 'Sizable Majority' in House in 2014 - Pickup Opps in 49 of 61 Districts

by ericlewis0

From PPP:

A new round of post-shutdown polling shows that Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014.
...

Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, given that the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts that were not even supposed to be close. Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in 15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown. Democrats only need to net 17 seats in order to retake the House.

And the bad news for Republicans doesn’t stop there, because in the minority of the 61 districts where Republicans lead in the initial head-to-head question, 11 more Republicans fall behind once voters are informed that the Republican supported the government shutdown and 1 race becomes tied. This means that our results indicate Democrats have pickup opportunities in an astounding 49 of the 61 districts surveyed.

(my bold)

http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/177617986/html5

Blam!

More encouraging still, there is no indication whatsoever that the GOP intends to change strategy. One year from now, they will likely be even more despised by the electorate.

Possible reactions: PPP? Too early! Unlikely!

Don't care. Let's change the narrative and kick the teabaggers while they're down.

NEW CNN poll - Majority do not want Republicans in control of House
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023893047

False Equivalency
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023888420

56 replies, 6547 views

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Reply PPP Poll: Dems Could Win 'Sizable Majority' in House in 2014 - Pickup Opps in 49 of 61 Districts (Original post)
ProSense Oct 2013 OP
ananda Oct 2013 #1
MineralMan Oct 2013 #2
BlueStreak Oct 2013 #44
MineralMan Oct 2013 #45
Andy823 Oct 2013 #3
WI_DEM Oct 2013 #4
demosincebirth Oct 2013 #16
Roland99 Oct 2013 #25
Bluenorthwest Oct 2013 #35
KansDem Oct 2013 #40
IronLionZion Oct 2013 #49
sharp_stick Oct 2013 #5
calimary Oct 2013 #41
BumRushDaShow Oct 2013 #6
ffr Oct 2013 #7
Efilroft Sul Oct 2013 #8
Eleanors38 Oct 2013 #9
kimbutgar Oct 2013 #10
Laelth Oct 2013 #11
serqet Oct 2013 #17
Laelth Oct 2013 #24
demosincebirth Oct 2013 #18
Laelth Oct 2013 #46
Plucketeer Oct 2013 #22
Laelth Oct 2013 #27
IronLionZion Oct 2013 #52
Laelth Oct 2013 #53
ChangeUp106 Oct 2013 #12
albino65 Oct 2013 #13
Laelth Oct 2013 #15
Old and In the Way Oct 2013 #14
enough Oct 2013 #19
grahamhgreen Oct 2013 #20
Turbineguy Oct 2013 #21
AllyCat Oct 2013 #23
Dawgs Oct 2013 #26
ChangeUp106 Oct 2013 #28
Dawgs Oct 2013 #31
Shampoyeto Oct 2013 #29
srican69 Oct 2013 #30
Laelth Oct 2013 #33
BumRushDaShow Oct 2013 #36
sheshe2 Oct 2013 #32
Lizzie Poppet Oct 2013 #34
Laelth Oct 2013 #38
CSStrowbridge Oct 2013 #37
Laelth Oct 2013 #39
flamingdem Oct 2013 #42
Hutzpa Oct 2013 #43
ProSense Oct 2013 #48
Logical Oct 2013 #47
DCBob Oct 2013 #51
hrmjustin Oct 2013 #50
gulliver Oct 2013 #54
Faryn Balyncd Oct 2013 #55
ProSense Oct 2013 #56

Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 09:53 AM

1. Big K

..

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 09:56 AM

2. Time to get started on the 2014

campaign to GOTV. If the Congress member in your district voted No, make sure everyone in the district knows that. It will make all the difference.

Keep reminding them, too.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 01:17 PM

44. Before GOTV we need strong candidates

 

One of the oldest sayings in politics is "You can't beat somebody with nobody."

These polls that test a real Republican against a generic Democratic are bogus. It is encouraging that the numbers show an opportunity, but nothing happens until we get strong candidates willing to run. I hope these polls provide the encouragement needed for some Dem winners to step up.

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #44)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 01:22 PM

45. Yes, of course. The candidate selection process is underway in

most places. In some, it's easy to participate in that process. Other places, not so much.

GOTV is not just about candidates, though. And it's not just an effort for just before the election. It should be going on all the time. Right now, it can be in the form of "Look what our Republican Congress member did! We have to do better than that." Local party organizations can begin sending that message right now, even before the most likely candidate appears.

Recruiting winning candidates varies from district to district and state to state. That's up to the local organization to handle.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 09:56 AM

3. That's good news

I agree that they are not going to change the way they have been acting. I think next year will be as bad or worse than this year when it comes to all the BS coming from the House crazies. The only question is will the rest of the House go along with the BS like they did during the shutdown, or will they stand up and do what is right for the country? Either way all the crap that was said during this last shutdown by the crazies will be used against them during the run up to next years elections. I am sure someone is already working on TV spots showing these crazies remarks about the shutdown not being so bad, or that not raising the debt ceiling won't hurt the country.

And of course we will see a lot of Cruz spewing his insane rants, which will help keep the fact of just how crazy these people really are in front of the voters clear up to the elections!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:03 AM

4. Nice but Americans have short memories

What looks good today could be gone tomorrow. While I hope people will remember a year away is a lifetime in politics.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:07 AM

16. Amen to that.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:30 AM

25. Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner!

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:05 PM

35. I see that repeated often as if it was established fact that among the world's

 

peoples, Americans have short memories. It is said of course by Americans so perhaps they have forgotten where they got the idea in the first place but I'd love to know.

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Response to Bluenorthwest (Reply #35)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:30 PM

40. IMHO, it is the media who perpetuate that canard...

I don't how many times I see something good come from the political scene only to have some M$M bubblehead opined that "Well, Americans/voters have short memories" as if he/she wanted to downplay the importance of the event/development on the next election cycle.

I think it is corporate media bullshit...

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 07:01 PM

49. It's our job to remind them and to get Dems to come out and vote

no excuses.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:05 AM

5. I wish we were voting

next month instead of next year but I'll take any encouraging sign I can get. A Democratic majority in the House and Senate would be a really nice way to round off Obama's final two years.

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Response to sharp_stick (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:33 PM

41. Hey, looks like the idiots plan on bringing their beloved shutdown-hostage crisis into the new year

with 'em. Ol' ted's just GOTTA make his point again. Maybe do it "right" next time, 'eh?

While they're busy making their stupid damn "points," let's help drive it home with their voters - THIS is what you get when you vote republi-CON. THIS SHIT is what you get. This NON-movement. This NO-PROGRESS stuff. You like this shit - where nothing gets done and all there is - is fighting all the time? You like this? I remember hearing, years ago - I think during the Clinton years - some republi-CON Congresswoman who asserted that the good thing about their side and the reason why they were supposedly so appealing was "'cause we FIGHT!" And I thought - yeah, girlfriend, pretty much. Aren't you just something! That's all you do. Fight. Just a bunch of belligerent fucks endlessly trying to stir things up and pick fights. That's all you want to do. Fight. BORING!!! SO tiresome!!! All you ever seem interested in is fighting. Fighting, fighting, fighting. It's always gotta be about fighting with you, isn't it? Boring, stupid, and tiresome.

You trust the republi-CONS and this is what you get. You get stuck out in the middle of the ocean with no wind in your sails and no oars to row with, and no radio to call for help. Because you didn't bother. You just knew better, didn't you? You weren't gonna need that because you were just gonna be fine and in control and everything was gonna go your twisted way and some how be wonderful. It was all about starting another fight. PICKING another fight. You were just gonna fight some. And then do some fighting.

Get the mentality here?

Um... America, is this REALLY what you want? Is this the proverbial "steady hand" you want on the tiller? Steady????!!!?!?!?!

I think we just need to keep this thought running through the back of America's collective mind. Gnawing through the back of America's collective mind. With everyone we know and run into.

2014 Here We Come!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:07 AM

6. Folks have GOT to turn out

in numbers close to 2012 in order to make this so. After the 2012 election, the media refused to mention that Democrats gained 8 seats in the House... preferring instead to continue with the narrative of rethugs retaking the Senate. Ironically, since the Senate does not rely on gerrymandering, with enough turnout, Democrats might be competitive in states like KY or WV, where Democrats are in the majority, but have tended to be more conservative (and just couldn't pull a lever for this current President).

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:35 AM

7. I have a red one in my district I can work on.

And I'll be representing what respectful change looks and sounds like.

50 state strategy. No GOP seat is safe. Get them out in 2014!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:40 AM

8. Definitely not too early.

When Katrina hit New Orleans in late summer 2005, we still had 14 months to go before the 2006 midterm election. We now have a shorter time frame in comparison to the next midterm election. This huge turnover is very possible if the Democrats continue to press their advantages and the Republicans continue to double-down on the crazy.

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Response to Efilroft Sul (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:44 AM

9. Well said.

 

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:44 AM

10. Every republican cheering on the house floor for the shutdown and default are not patriots

But traitors who should be voted out in 2014. Run the videos of them gloating in the media as campaign ads against them.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:48 AM

11. In red areas, we need to run white women.

I've said this before, and I am well-prepared to withstand criticism on this subject, but the Republican gerrymandering of 2010 left a lot of Republicans vulnerable to a 5 point swing in popular opinion regarding who should control Congress. White women can win these seats.

Racism is real, and pretending it doesn't exist is folly. Feminism is also real, and pretending it does not exist is also folly. For the red states and the red areas of those states, in particular, white women have the best chance of winning as Democrats, because they peel white women away from their Repbulican-voting husbands and families. There's only one white male left in Congress who's a Democrat from the Deep South, and that's Georgia's John Barrow. In the red districts of the Deep South (and elsewhere), white, male Democrats are nearly extinct. In those same districts, I contend, a white female Democrat can win.

Flame-retardant suit on. Have at it.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:07 AM

17. I agree. . .

I'm a white female living in the DFW metroplex, but have lived near Fort Hood, and 12 years in Winston-Salem (NC)....

I think you have a valid point, best way to turn southern states dem, have white women run in the really red districts (aka, white, male teahadist controlled). You would get women jumping to dems... esp after the laws against womens right to abortion and voting (ALL your documentation must have the same nsme or no voting for you)

However, There are some districts that have large minority populations that can win... and they should definitely try and get minorities for those seats!

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Response to serqet (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:30 AM

24. Agreed.

Last edited Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:58 PM - Edit history (1)

I would add, however, that Republican gerrymandering has already created solidly-democratic districts with minority representation. Here, in my home state of Georgia, we have four democratic-controlled seats in Congress (despite the fact that 40% of us, or more, vote for Democrats). Three of those seats are held by African-Americans. The other seat is held by John Barrow, the last white, male Democrat from the South. We will have no problem holding on to the Democratic seats in the urban areas. It's the whiter, more suburban and rural districts where Republican gerrymandering has made those seats quite vulnerable to a small shift in national opinion. It's those seats that I think a white, female Democrat can win.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:11 AM

18. You make a good point. Never thought of it like that.

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Response to demosincebirth (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 03:30 PM

46. Thanks. Glad you found my insights to be useful. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:23 AM

22. I agree with what you say

 

We need more women in ALL branches of government. Hey, and I'm a guy! I won't EVEN try to detail how women perceive things differently than us guys do - you can pull up your own notions on that. But even on just the notion that gender is as much a factor of citizen cross-section as race is, we're woefully lacking in equality where elections and appointments to public office are concerned!

My only worry about the Dems taking back the house is that they'll yet again discover another way or two to let the GOP control them.

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Response to Plucketeer (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:48 AM

27. I fully agree that we'd all be better off with more women in government.

That said, most women I know are too smart to make a career out of politics. It's a terrible way to make a living. Our politicians spend way too much time on the phone begging for money, and nobody wants to do that.

My interest is in taking the House in 2014, and I think running white women in vulnerable red districts is the way to do it. For what that's worth.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 07:23 PM

52. I love white women as much as anyone

But a significant amount of southern republican women are supporting Terry McAuliffe who is male, specifically because of his policies on women's issues. Women won it for Barack twice as well.

Any type of Dem should win the votes of women. Younger women don't care as much about race as the older ones but you do have a valid point there on race...even though Obama and Douglas Wilder have won in the south.

And our country has the highest number of Republican women in office that we have ever had. Some of the most radical nutjobs in the tea party are women. Somebody is actually voting for them. It baffles my mind that crusty old conservatives of either gender are voting for women. My mom doesn't trust female politicians and she's liberal and grew up in a socialist country with a woman prime minister.

Much of our country also has more Latinos than we used to. Whoever can appeal to them should have a very good chance as well. They care about a hell of a lot more than immigration. Any politician who can understand that will get a lot of support. Even ass-backwards Idaho has a republican Latino congressman.

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Response to IronLionZion (Reply #52)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 07:26 PM

53. All I can really say is that white, male Democrats are nearly extinct in the Deep South.

That means something to me, and I don't think that fact should be ignored.



-Laelth

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:54 AM

12. I'm torn

The poll by itself is fantastic news. No one here would disagree. But there's still such a long time between now and November 2014.

The only thing that I would say to erase my own doubts is that these morons will try this again come January. Who knows what the outcome of that will be. Do we kick the can to June? Would they do it again over the Summer? Then they couldn't recover.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:03 AM

13. It Means Nothing

 

With our notoriously short memories this means nothing unless we press the advantage. We all have to become active in our communities and states to wrest the country from their grip. We cannot simply sit back and wait for the old, dumb, white racists to die in order to turn the tide. They come at us on so many issues in so many ways that it is difficult to support each group with time or money. The only way to address it is to win the house and increase our hold on the senate and this will take activism by us all. Contact your local Democratic party headquarters and volunteer any way you can. If you can't get there, have them come to you. Host strategy meetings in your house. Host telephone banks. Press your friends and neighbors to become active. If you can afford it, give money to local and national campaigns. You don't have to give a lot to make a difference. 2014 needs to belong to us.

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Response to albino65 (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:06 AM

15. Well said, and welcome to DU. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:04 AM

14. I really doubt that the ideologues in the Teapublican Party will be able to contain themselves.

Their hatred of Obama and the delight they take in obstructing any meaningful legislation that helps improve the lot for the vast majority of Americans won't change anytime soon. They've done absolutely nothing in terms of jobs legislation and the reality of what these clowns are doing is starting to overwhelm their narrative of 'limited government'. In fact, they are costing this country big money...this shutdown fiasco they engineered is costing our economy $24BB....no amount of revisionist talking points is going to change this.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:16 AM

19. As someone recently said, you can't beat somebody with nobody.

Generic polls may be encouraging, but you've got to come up with credible candidates backed with money and well-organized campaigns. Otherwise, people vote for the one they know, barring some particular reason not to.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:18 AM

20. Cutting SS will flip this, as could the TPP, more war, or any of the many issues Americans are far

 

to the left if our party on.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:21 AM

21. The teabaggers will do a repeat.

They're on a Mission from Fox News.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:29 AM

23. But the front page of the Wisconsin State Urinal, I mean Journal

says that the Republicans are going to win seats from the Dems because of glitches in the website. Gosh, who to believe? (crafting angry letter to WSU/J)

Sorry, no link. Read in print version and refuse to get an account on their site.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:48 AM

26. This is why we will not see another shutdown threat next year. n/t

 

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Response to Dawgs (Reply #26)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:53 AM

28. Not so sure about that my Bernie avatar sharing friend

These people are

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Response to ChangeUp106 (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:00 PM

31. I'm afraid you may be right.

 

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:57 AM

29. the catch, from the 1st paragraph

 

"if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014."

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:58 AM

30. If the healthcare.gov is not fixed in a hurry .... they will be lucky to lose just another 50 seats

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Response to srican69 (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:03 PM

33. I do not subscribe to this kind of paranoia.

Glitches in the software are easily repaired. This is not a real issue as far as I am concerned.



-Laelth

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Response to srican69 (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:12 PM

36. This is a bullshit RW talking point

The ACA is NOT "the website". There has always been an 800 # available 24/7 and healthcare centers were set up for in-person sign ups in every state. You don't HAVE to use the website.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:00 PM

32. The teabaggers have lost the breaks on the clown car.

They are out of control with their fanatical hatred of this President. They will not stop their downward spiral, because they can not stop their hate.

GOTV 2014!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:04 PM

34. The GOP is making the mistake of appealing to a loud-mouthed fringe movement in their party.

 

I, for one, am perfectly content to let them continue to make that mistake...

However, I don't think that will last if the Democratic Party manages to reverse its movement towards corporate-friendly, Third Way nominees and policies. It puts the political left between a rock and a hard place: pulling the Democratic Party back on course to support progressive policies could cause the plutocrats to work a lot harder to curb the influence of the teabilly fringe in the GOP.

It's a somewhat difficult choice for us on the left: do we shove the major party that best represents us back on course and risk derailing the GOP's political suicide...or do we accept a more centrist Democratic platform than we would prefer in order to grease the slides for a GOP slide into oblivion?

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #34)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:18 PM

38. Agreed. More popcorn, please.



Sun Tzu: The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

Napoleon: Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.



-Laelth

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:17 PM

37. Oh please, oh please, oh please...

Oh please, oh please, oh please let the GOP not learn any lessons and and try this crap again 2014. Let the Tea Party try and take down the "moderate" Republicans, the ones that are not totally insane, and let the Democrats sweep into power.

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Response to CSStrowbridge (Reply #37)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:20 PM

39. +1.

And welcome to DU.



-Laelth

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:45 PM

42. I love good news!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:47 PM

43. CleanHouse 2014

nt

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Response to Hutzpa (Reply #43)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 04:23 PM

48. Yes. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 03:31 PM

47. A long time till election, these numbers mean nothing! nt

 

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Response to Logical (Reply #47)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 07:12 PM

51. They certainly do mean something... if voters keep hearing negative things about Republicans..

that will eventually stick... as long as Dems keep the pressure and don't do anything stupid.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 07:02 PM

50. I just got polled by PPP about my congressman Michael Grimm.

 

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 07:33 PM

54. And that's before ObamaCare is the whopping success it is going to be.

November next year, Republicans will be the guys who tried to trip the fireman on the way to save kids from the burning building.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2013, 08:09 PM

55. First, we need to stand strong & defend SS & MC or we will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.



K & R.

If we continue to stand together in strength as in this recent Republican attempt to destroy America, America will continue to benefit.












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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 22, 2013, 10:50 AM

56. Appreciate the Republican rifts: Kochs, Jim Demint and teabaggers

GOPer To Explore Challenging Idaho Guv Over State's Obamacare Exchange
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/goper-to-explore-challenging-idaho-guv-over-state-s-obamacare-exchange

Koch brothers eye states, not Congress, for health care goals
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023894578

This is a PAC founded by DeMint:

Senate Conservatives Fund Endorses Sasse In Nebraska Senate Race
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/senate-conservatives-fund-endorses-sasse-in-nebraska-senate-race

Senate Conservatives Fund Endorses McConnell Primary Challenger
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/senate-conservatives-fund-endorses-mcconnell-primary-challenger

The teabaggers are pissed at all of them.

Tea Party Nation Withdraws Mitch McConnell Endorsement
http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10023815784

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