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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 09:55 AM

End strategy seems clear: Deadlock Sunday, Sell off Monday, Clear CR Tuesday.

Yesterday [http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251330730| I predicted gloom and doom Sunday] and that the markets would enter Monday with a sell off and that would give the Senate cover to come in with a life raft of a clean CR/Debt ceiling bill with large bipartisan numbers that would force the House to vote and pass the bill.

This ABC report would seem to affirm that scenario:



http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/10/talks-to-end-shutdown-raise-debt-ceiling-deadlocked/

Talks on ending the government shutdown and preventing default have once again deadlocked, but this time it is Democrats who are demanding changes to current law as a condition for ending the impasse.

With the two sides now negotiating to extend government funding until at least January 31, Democrats are now insisting on spending increases — they want to end most of the cuts put in place as part of the so-called sequester. Democrats are still willing to accept a short-term deal to reopen the government at sequester spending levels (the Senate, of course, passed a 6-week extension on those terms), but now that talks are centered on funding the government into 2014, they are insisting on undoing some of sequester cuts. To Republicans, this is a non-starter, unless the sequester spending cuts are replaced with cuts to entitlement programs — and that is a non-starter for Democrats.

The impasse makes it more likely there will be no agreement when markets reopen Monday morning. If an agreement is not soon reached, it may be impossible to pass anything before October 17, the day the Treasury Department says the government risks default if Congress does not extend the government’s ability to borrow money.



In this crazy bizzaro world the worse it seems today the better the chances tomorrow.

26 replies, 2814 views

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Reply End strategy seems clear: Deadlock Sunday, Sell off Monday, Clear CR Tuesday. (Original post)
grantcart Oct 2013 OP
zazen Oct 2013 #1
grantcart Oct 2013 #2
dogknob Oct 2013 #11
zazen Oct 2013 #15
Warren DeMontague Oct 2013 #3
Raine1967 Oct 2013 #4
BumRushDaShow Oct 2013 #5
BluegrassStateBlues Oct 2013 #6
A HERETIC I AM Oct 2013 #7
grantcart Oct 2013 #8
A HERETIC I AM Oct 2013 #14
grantcart Oct 2013 #20
joshcryer Oct 2013 #25
A HERETIC I AM Oct 2013 #26
Ruby the Liberal Oct 2013 #9
hooverville29 Oct 2013 #10
grantcart Oct 2013 #22
former9thward Oct 2013 #12
hooverville29 Oct 2013 #16
former9thward Oct 2013 #19
grantcart Oct 2013 #18
former9thward Oct 2013 #21
bluestate10 Oct 2013 #13
former9thward Oct 2013 #17
Ruby the Liberal Oct 2013 #23
Pretzel_Warrior Oct 2013 #24

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 10:03 AM

1. Ha! "Senator--my offer is this. Nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming

license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally."

What a radical thought--instead of defending against proposed cuts to our programs, make actual demands of the Republicans?

And this would then enable them to save a little face, if they can then say that, well, they had to compromise in order to preserve something.

I'm realizing here that "saving face" requires an opponent who's perceived as strong enough to make some capitulation acceptable. The Dem leadership has hardly been living up to that standard until recently.

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Response to zazen (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:47 PM

2. saving face.


In their bazzaro world they probably could save face by telling the world they had gotten reassurance that the President had decided not nationalize the country's ammunition manufacturers.

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Response to zazen (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:54 PM

11. This immediately reminded me of that scene from Godfather Part 2...

...kudos.

I also remember that an innocent person got offed in the endgame scenario. Let's hope that isn't deemed necessary -- unless we want it made absolutely clear who (and how many) the PTB deem to be expendable.

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Response to dogknob (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 05:38 PM

15. I agree--the poor prostitute was treated like trash

That scene was chilling--"it'd be as if she had never existed."

I didn't mean to endorse his tactics at all--just that the negotiation seemed "reasonable" (at least in the beginning.)

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:49 PM

3. How about if we fund the thing beyond January, so we don't have to go through this again in 3 months

hmmm, novel idea.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:52 PM

4. I would really like if we saw this part come true:

With the two sides now negotiating to extend government funding until at least January 31, Democrats are now insisting on spending increases — they want to end most of the cuts put in place as part of the so-called sequester. Democrats are still willing to accept a short-term deal to reopen the government at sequester spending levels (the Senate, of course, passed a 6-week extension on those terms), but now that talks are centered on funding the government into 2014, they are insisting on undoing some of sequester cuts. To Republicans, this is a non-starter, unless the sequester spending cuts are replaced with cuts to entitlement programs — and that is a non-starter for Democrats.
WOW!

this time it is Democrats who are demanding changes to current law as a condition for ending the impasse.


Just Wow. Thanks grantcart.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:56 PM

5. Maybe they can bring up

the McConnell rule again.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021931619

Seems we're back at this same place from a year ago.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:56 PM

6. IMO, the Senate will do something last minute.

 

And the House GOP will vote to let us default.

What happens after the dust settles is left to your imagination.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:58 PM

7. At the moment, it doesn't look like a selloff is in the cards;

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937

It's actually gone up 6 points in the last 2 1/2 hours

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Response to A HERETIC I AM (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:01 PM

8. Help me understand. The time/date for the link you sent shows


Last Updated: Fri, 11 Oct '13 | 5:14 PM ET

So how is that from the last 2 1/2 hours?

Thanks

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Response to grantcart (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 05:32 PM

14. First of all, I apologize. I gave a link to one site, but gave the quote from another.

But the site I gave in my link above, CNBC.Com DOES indeed show a NEGATIVE opening for tomorrow. (currently down 99)

The site I was quoting from was CNNMoney, which still shows a +142 on their Dow Futures page;

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/?iid=MKT_Sub

When I looked at it earlier, it was showing +136, but it isn't accurate apparently and hasn't been updated.

The CNBC page shows when it was last updated, and currently the last update was 6:19 PM Eastern. Click on the hyperlink I made above for CNBC.com and look just below the "DOW (Mini)" section. It will show the time of the latest update. In fact, It updated while I was putting together this post. When I started, it was -104.

I am terribly sorry for the mistake. I had no intention to mislead.

Edited for clarification

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Response to A HERETIC I AM (Reply #14)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:11 PM

20. its all good. I don't really understand the futures market very well so


I am just trying to make sure I understand what people are saying.

Thanks for the clarification.

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Response to A HERETIC I AM (Reply #14)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 07:07 PM

25. Looks like CNN money is updating now. -113 as of this post.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #25)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 07:16 PM

26. Yeah, but it's showing the last update as 7:50PM

So it seems they aren't updating nearly as often as the CNBC page is.

As of 8:15 CNBC is showing -82, updated @ 8:09.

Weird. Anyway, and again, I regret my error.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:46 PM

9. Tomorrow is a holiday

Stock market is open, but bond markets aren't, and the banks are all closed. I wouldn't expect enough volume to make a splash big enough for Republicans to need a diaper change. Tuesday on the other hand...

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:50 PM

10. If it's that bad, *everybody* will need a diaper change, not just the Republicans

 

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:13 PM

22. Well actually small volume also means that a smaller number of aggressive sellers

could have a bigger impact, especially if no buyers show up.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:56 PM

12. Dow futures are up 142 points.

Does not seem like any selloff. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

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Response to former9thward (Reply #12)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 05:38 PM

16. A lot of that is computer generated or just orders already placed from last week's optimism

 

Tomorrow should be 'reserved' and looking for other signals, because it's just stocks tomorrow (Columbus Day), but if Washington is 'busted' on Tuesday, then so will Wall Street be busted, along with others around the globe.

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Response to hooverville29 (Reply #16)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:11 PM

19. The market has been up 450 points in the last two days.

I believe they know the situation better than internet posters.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #12)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:10 PM

18. now showing minus 125

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Response to grantcart (Reply #18)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:12 PM

21. We'll see....

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:57 PM

13. The US stock market is closed on Monday. So the important day is Tuesday. The world is

holding it's breath, wondering whether extreme terrorists will bring down the US economy and destroy a debt rating and reputation for reliability that required the nation's entire history for it to gain.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #13)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:10 PM

17. The market is not closed tomorrow.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #13)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:49 PM

23. Half right.

Stock market is open, but the bond market, the Fed and the banks are closed.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 06:53 PM

24. These media shit heads won't admit that

 

Dems dickering on the budget numbers is WHAT YOU'D EXPECT in a budget vote. More false equivalence by saying this is on par with Repuke attempts to roll back, defund, or otherwise delay Obamacare.

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