Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:49 PM

dkf (37,305 posts)

Larry Sabato says vast majority of R house seats are completely safe.

The only risk is a primary if they aren't conservative enough.

Unless things get so bad that many many individuals feel the impact, there is no downside for house Rs.

That is scary.

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19 replies	Author	Time	Post
Larry Sabato says vast majority of R house seats are completely safe. (Original post)	dkf	Sep 2013	OP
Yes, redistricting in this nation is a scam.	hrmjustin	Sep 2013	#1
He was actually talking about R's gaining a couple of seats! Wth?	dkf	Sep 2013	#4
God help us if they do gain seats.	hrmjustin	Sep 2013	#5
"vast majority" doesn't matter, and is a given. The question is swing seats...	villager	Sep 2013	#2
.	blkmusclmachine	Sep 2013	#3
He also predicted that Republicans would take the Senate in 2012.	ProSense	Sep 2013	#6
Well it explains why they don't fear consequences.	dkf	Sep 2013	#7
That's false. Sabato did not predict such thing	Calculator Alligator	Sep 2013	#9
Senate GOP Poised to Win 4-Seat Majority	ProSense	Sep 2013	#13
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Oct 2013	#16
Not according to this Wiki.	Wilms	Sep 2013	#11
Around the same time in the cycle:	ProSense	Sep 2013	#14
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Oct 2013	#17
Let's see what that crystal ball says next week	Xipe Totec	Sep 2013	#8
you would come along and cheer us up	CatWoman	Sep 2013	#10
Short-term yes. Long-term demographics say eventually they will need to adapt	geek tragedy	Sep 2013	#12
That seems to be their theory, yes. In practice, they still have to win the vote. nt	bemildred	Sep 2013	#15
what if enough normal people	kydo	Oct 2013	#18
The 'Feds' can't simply 'decide' to run all elections. The States run elections and that's	Bluenorthwest	Oct 2013	#19

Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:52 PM

hrmjustin (71,265 posts)

1. Yes, redistricting in this nation is a scam.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:53 PM

dkf (37,305 posts)

4. He was actually talking about R's gaining a couple of seats! Wth?

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Response to dkf (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:56 PM

hrmjustin (71,265 posts)

5. God help us if they do gain seats.

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:52 PM

villager (26,001 posts)

2. "vast majority" doesn't matter, and is a given. The question is swing seats...

...and how many of those are in play.... or could be...

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:53 PM

blkmusclmachine (16,149 posts)

3. .

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:56 PM

ProSense (116,464 posts)

6. He also predicted that Republicans would take the Senate in 2012.

What the hell is the point of this right now?

Is he trying to justify them being terrorists?

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Response to ProSense (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 07:57 PM

dkf (37,305 posts)

7. Well it explains why they don't fear consequences.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:11 PM

Calculator Alligator (20 posts)

9. That's false. Sabato did not predict such thing

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

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Response to Calculator Alligator (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:25 PM

ProSense (116,464 posts)

13. Senate GOP Poised to Win 4-Seat Majority

Senate GOP Poised to Win 4-Seat Majority

Senate Republicans are looking strong going into the 2012 election, poised to pick up enough states to create a four-seat majority and possibly a filibuster-proof lead if the eventual GOP presidential nominee routs President Obama, according to party leaders and a new election analysis.

"Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It's just a basic matter of numbers," says Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia political analyst, in a new report.

- more -

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/06/23/senate-gop-poised-to-win-4-seat-majority

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Response to ProSense (Reply #13)

Name removed Message auto-removed

Response to ProSense (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:15 PM

Wilms (26,795 posts)

11. Not according to this Wiki.

In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[17] The projection was similar to the actual results, but Crystal Ball under-estimated Obama's number of electoral votes (332) and under-estimated Democratic victories in both the Senate (Democrats picked up two seats) and in the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato#Predictions

I don't think he meant to hurt your feelings.

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Response to Wilms (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:30 PM

ProSense (116,464 posts)

14. Around the same time in the cycle:

Is the Senate the Republicans’ To Lose?
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kdk2011090101/

Seat predicted Republican that went Democratic.

Lugar, Brown (MA), Snowe.

Oh, and thank you MA and ME.

Senator Bashes House Republicans: ‘They Hate Government. They Don’t Want Government To Work.’ http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023743940

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Response to ProSense (Reply #14)

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:07 PM

Xipe Totec (43,680 posts)

8. Let's see what that crystal ball says next week

Once he pulls it out of his ass and wipes it clean.

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:13 PM

CatWoman (78,399 posts)

10. you would come along and cheer us up

wouldn't you?

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 08:17 PM

geek tragedy (68,868 posts)

12. Short-term yes. Long-term demographics say eventually they will need to adapt

or they will perish.

They are chained to their base, with no chance to evolve.

It keeps them alive for now, but eventually will kill them.

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Mon Sep 30, 2013, 09:03 PM

bemildred (90,061 posts)

15. That seems to be their theory, yes. In practice, they still have to win the vote. nt

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Response to dkf (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2013, 07:31 AM

kydo (2,679 posts)

18. what if enough normal people

moved into these gerry rigged districts? Could rational sane people (um most Dems) beat the crazy in these ahem so called safe "seats"?

Also one other question, lets say the US is sick of the brats and their stealing and The Feds decide to run all Federal Elections, (which it could according to our laws), can it draw the districts lines for that? I don't care if the states still have the rigged districts as that would only effect the state gov. I am talking the Federal Government determining the districts for the House in the US Congress.

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Response to kydo (Reply #18)

Tue Oct 1, 2013, 07:57 AM

Bluenorthwest (45,319 posts)

19. The 'Feds' can't simply 'decide' to run all elections. The States run elections and that's

all in the Constitution.

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