Prediction: Boehner will offer a clean CR resolution when DJI hits 14,199 (at 14965 noon 10/3)

[grantcart]

Last edited Thu Oct 3, 2013, 11:57 AM - Edit history (2)

That is what I posted on Monday and much to my surprise it didn't go down that much the first two days.

Today is different, a real sell off has started with the Dow losing 120 points right off the bat and moving below 15,000 now likely.

Post your prediction below on what you think the DJI will be when the Republicans fold without a single concession.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=20130807,20131003;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


This has become a rather predictable exercise.

Republican Tea Party demands action.

Republican House members fear primary.

Stage meaningless government shut down.

Stock Market tanks giving Boehner cover to fold.

I am guessing an 8% dive will make Boehner move that would bring it to 14,199 based on its high 5 days ago.

You can watch it fall here, to get perspective choose the 5 day option.

http://www.marketwatch.com/?link=MW_Nav_FP

Place your predictions on what the market price will be when Boehner folds below:

[StopTheNeoCons]

1. 13,999...nt

[grantcart]

4. That would be my second choice but you may have hit the nail exactly right.

[global1]

2. And How Much Money Will Boehner And His Fellow Repugs Make Betting On The Market With....

their inside information?

[KoKo]

5. Exactly...and some Dems aren't immune to this either

[grantcart]

8. Well when you do the same thing over and over in broad public

you have to wonder if it can still be called 'insider information'.

But your point is right on and that is why when the profit taking starts it will be particularly messy.

Nobody wants to miss a good meal.

[madokie]

3. boner looks shitfaced big time here in this photo

Three sheets to the wind comes to mind

[KittyWampus]

7. I say we start a pool for when Boehner starts crying in public again.

[grantcart]

10. lol I'm in Wed 14:00 EST

[grantcart]

11. Did you notice how haggered he looked on Saturday. Not a happy camper.

[madokie]

12. He knows full well this will all come back to bite him in the ass

I say he will resign shortly and if not he will draw an opponent in the primaries and lose

Being a old used to be drinker I don't like the idea of a drunk, of which he is, making policy for me to have to live by

[Andy823]

18. He already has a challenger for the primary

Some guy named Eric Gurr. I think old Boehner is trying to kiss up to the tea party in hopes they will support him and not the challenger come primary time. No mater what Boehner does he will lose on this one. He made his bed with the teabagges, now he will pay!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

14. When does he not.

He uses that orange spray on tan to hide his jaundice.

[KittyWampus]

6. oh boy, sounds like a real adrenaline rush.

[Junkdrawer]

9. Or it could be used as the "dump" excuse for a Pump and Dump....

It'll piss off the small investors, but the Republican base is now the 1% + ditto head dolts.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

13. Watch the Koch bros. make a big buy when the market bottoms out.

These guys are evil but they're not stupid.

[JoePhilly]

15. 14, 850 ... I think you'll see resistance at 15,000 and definitely again at 14,750

And at each of those, Boehner's phone will not stop ringing.

So I doubt we get down to 14,200 based on this, any shutdown would be short regardless and the market knows it.

I'll go with 14,850 as the lowest before he folds.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. The Dow hit a record high (close) of 15,676.94 on 9/18/13

It is overdue for a 10% correction so assuming the 10% is 1567.69, then the bottom would be 14,109.25 give or take. If it were to do a 10% based on Friday's close of 15,258.24 (1525.82) = 13732.42.

They might be too chicken to let it go 10%. Am thinking more a 5% (=783.84 of the high) before some sort of "movement" (and leaks to the media about "negotiations" if they need it) might stabilize it, which would be somewhere around 14893.1. A 5% off Friday's high (762.91), would take it down to 14,495.33.

[grantcart]

17. Interesting. Surprised it didn't go down more today.

[grantcart]

19. Stock market starting to head south

[grantcart]

20. kick for going into the 14,000's

[JoePhilly]

21. We've stalled at the 15,000 resistance point.

As I predicted!!!

[grantcart]

22. Need to get Priebus back on TV lol

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023775196

[JoePhilly]

23. Bwahahahaha ... that's funny.

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Kicking this to see how we are faring

since the "shrugging off" of last week suddenly ended and the market is heading down again.

[grantcart]

25. Anybody have a new prediction?

[JoePhilly]

26. My prediction above is still holding pretty close to accurate.

We hit resistance at 15,000 and again at about 14,750.

We're a little above my originally predicted "cave point" of 14,850.

Today's jump might be "insiders" who already know that Boehner's cave is imminent.

[grantcart]

28. We will see. ABC's Rick Klein seems closer to my prediction: we need a bigger sell off.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/10/when-does-wall-street-cast-its-vote-the-note/

ABC’s RICK KLEIN: When does Wall Street cast its vote? Bipartisan meetings are nice, and new plans that depend on the other side budging certainly can’t hurt at this stage of a standoff. But there may be only one way to jolt the system: SELL. Conversations with Republican strategists in recent days suggest that only a major event, most likely in the form of a major southward turn in the markets, could shake things loose inside the GOP conference enough to push away from the current crises. That’s what will draw constituent phone calls, and what will turn anger into action – more so, certainly, than vague threats of primary challenges engineered by business interests. The markets could be the 12th man, and the players are weary enough that they may not be able to draw any inspiration from elsewhere in this stadium.

[JoePhilly]

29. I'm thinking that his analysis might make sense for the crazies, but Boehner has the ability

to circumvent all that. Boehner has the ability to "end it" anytime he wants.

My guess is that Boehner is now negotiating his "exit package", his "golden parachute".

Which "think tank" will Boehner get to go work for making 7 figure a year after he caves. Which family members "get stuff" down the road as a result.

Lieberman got his. Demint got his.

Boehner wants his.

Oh, on edit: Also ... time's running out. The crazies might be thrilled with no debt ceiling increase, but that would negatively impact Boehner's "next life". Better to make a deal late this week or early next and lock in that 7 figure landing pad.

[grantcart]

30. Here we disagree.

Boehner knows that once he gives up the Speakership he is just another talking head, and not a very good one at that. Foley, Gephart, Hastert, even Gingrich (for a long time) became non entities after they left the Speakership.

He will maintain his position until he is voted out. Fortunately the people who appose him are idiots and have no idea how to build a consensus.

[JoePhilly]

31. Sorry ... I don't mean that he'll cave and then immediately leave.

That's too obvious.

Take Lieberman ... he held out to ensure no public option could ever pass, comfortable in the knowledge that his seat at a cushy think tank was already arranged. he finnished out his term. Took a little time off. And then took the seat that was waiting for him.

Boehner is going to cave, and then later, he'll get paid off.

He's not going to jeopardize that cushy think tank or lobbying gig.

Hey ... just popped up above 15k.

[bhikkhu]

27. My guess was that they were shooting for a 10% hit

but 8% is as good as guess as any. Given the secrecy that has been built into congressional insider trading, the complete lack of any political benefits to their moves, and the money-grubbing nature of all the players involved, the realistic guess is that they are doing this to make a bundle of money. That would work perfectly with (easily done) "bets" on predictable market shifts. With the market reactions well tested in the recent past to shut-down rhetoric and debt-ceiling worries, they have all the cards in hand to manipulate however they see necessary.

So, all ideology aside, and being of suspicious nature, I think you are exactly right. Causing a decline sufficient to reap large rewards for inside investors, but still within a recoverable range, is their most likely strategy.

[BumRushDaShow]

32. Dow closed up 322

and the low was on 10/8/13 - 14776.53. So unless whatever movement completely, we may have bottomed!

[grantcart]

33. Any new predictions?