The investor class learning curve
This is not a prediction of gloom, imminent or otherwise. Just an observation.
It is impossible that after figuring out the hard way that Pets.Com wasn't actually worth billions, and figuring out the hard way that one of the NASDAQ Big Five (Worldcom) could disappear literally overnight that people thought it reasonable to accept that real estate sensibly ought to double every three or four years.
But they did.
And after realizing that the housing bubble was a bubble, and that the stock market bubble was a bubble, it is impossible for Apple to be over $500/share.
At some point bubbles bursting is supposed to fundementally change the psychology of the investing class. We have changed the fundemental psychology of the working class... they got the message.
But I am troubled by the degree to which the investment class remains poised to jump on the "next big thing"... the expectation that there is, and always must be, a "next big thing." Perhaps we will go along like this for a century. I know from experience that the "top" always comes long after it appears it must come.
But for now, it's like we had an intervention for everybody except the addict.
