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Sat Jun 22, 2013, 04:31 PM

This is why Texas should matter so much to Dems



http://www.usatoday.com/interactives/news/politics/electoral-vote-tracker/

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Reply This is why Texas should matter so much to Dems (Original post)
SoCalDem Jun 2013 OP
Warpy Jun 2013 #1
SoCalDem Jun 2013 #2
DontTreadOnMe Jun 2013 #3
LuvNewcastle Jun 2013 #4
Major Nikon Jun 2013 #5
LeftInTX Jun 2013 #7
Major Nikon Jun 2013 #8
LuvNewcastle Jun 2013 #9
n2doc Jun 2013 #6

Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 04:47 PM

1. All states should matter, Dean had the right idea.

This silly scenario notwithstanding, educating all states about what the GOP has become is essential.

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Response to Warpy (Reply #1)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 04:50 PM

2. I don't see "wiggle-room" as silly

IF Texas ever does turn blue (reliably), it makes the "swing states" a lot less
"swingy"..

THAT was the point.. With the demographics being what they are and will become, it's infinitely do-able.. There will be a LOT of disgruntled teapartiers when/if it happens, but they'll just have to get over it

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Response to Warpy (Reply #1)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 05:04 PM

3. It's not a silly scenario

 

If the DEMS can flip Florida or Texas, it would be impossible for the GOP to win the Presidency.
That could be something that lats 20 years!

Howard Dean's strategy is pointing out that it is NOT just about the Presidency, and that we need to win the House and Senate at the State level.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 05:41 PM

4. I don't see a time when Texas will be reliably blue,

I think Texas will be an unpredictable swing state, sort of like Ohio. It would be good if the Dem. Party started building a base there now, putting money in local and state races so that they'll build an organization there. When Texas does become a swing state, the party should be competitive on all levels, and they need to start competing now.

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Response to LuvNewcastle (Reply #4)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 06:24 PM

5. Texas is nothing like Ohio

Texas is minority white. Ohio is nowhere close. 1/3rd of all Texans are Hispanic. Ohio has almost none. Texas is growing in population with more people moving to the cities and suburbs. Ohio is relatively stagnant.

The 4 largest cities in Texas are already reliably blue. All that needs to happen is the suburbs of those cities need to trend more to the Democratic party. Once Texas goes blue, it will never go back and the GOP will be finished.

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Response to Major Nikon (Reply #5)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 07:01 PM

7. The voters have to register and vote!

That is the problem. Voter turn out in parts of South Texas is the lowest in the country.


That's one reason Perry and friends are so smug. They know that turn out is low.

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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #7)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 07:05 PM

8. That's exactly why Texas is so ripe

Nobody campaigns here.

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Response to Major Nikon (Reply #5)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 07:05 PM

9. I only compared Texas and Ohio in regards to

their voting patterns in Presidential races. I wasn't saying they're similar in other ways. Today the parties spend a lot in Ohio during Presidential elections because Ohio can go either way. I think we'll see the same thing happen with Texas.

Maybe Texas will eventually be reliably blue, but if they are I think it's going to be a long time before that happens. For Texas to be reliably blue, Hispanics will have to be reliably Democratic, and I don't know if we can count on that. If they vote as a bloc like some other minorities do, then it could very well happen, but I don't think Hispanics can be counted on to do that in the future.

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Response to SoCalDem (Original post)

Sat Jun 22, 2013, 06:35 PM

6. Dems have a long ways to go

http://www.270towin.com/states/Texas

Carter was the last Dem to win there. The last election Rmoney, who ran the most anti-hispanic campaign in history, won by 16%. That was actually more of a victory margin than McCain had. And it has held relatively constant for the last 20 years (if you include Perot in the R side). Democrats need a 10% swing in actual counted voters to take Texas. Which probably requires a larger number of registered voters.

It isn't impossible, but don't be kidding yourself about how it is going to be inevitable.

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