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pepperbear

(5,691 posts)
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 05:03 PM Jan 31

I found this on FB.This is the most consice analysis I've seen yet regarding trump

The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the president,by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University.

Everybody I know should read this accurate and enlightening piece...

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn't another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I found this on FB.This is the most consice analysis I've seen yet regarding trump (Original Post) pepperbear Jan 31 OP
No shades of gray in Trump's mind bucolic_frolic Jan 31 #1
Well, to be fair... LuvLoogie Jan 31 #8
The next to the last paragraph hit the nail on the head. 3catwoman3 Jan 31 #2
I had a Supply Chain degree coming out of college FHRRK Jan 31 #16
Meanwhile, magaville applauds him for his KPN Feb 1 #22
You can add in is susceptibility to delusions due to his narcissism. everyonematters Jan 31 #3
And then there's the type of negotiation a two-year old makes C_U_L8R Jan 31 #4
Alert the ketchup man COL Mustard Jan 31 #12
Illuminating discussion WestMichRad Jan 31 #5
I second that! Well done. allegorical oracle Jan 31 #13
Thank you for this. Indeed, it's both broad and concise. ancianita Jan 31 #6
Good analysis. I've always called distributive bargaining the zero-sum game. Lonestarblue Jan 31 #7
Agree. But the problem with trump is that he isn't content to simply win. He must humiliate allegorical oracle Jan 31 #15
Throw in his Adderall addiction..... SergeStorms Jan 31 #9
FORK Pas-de-Calais Jan 31 #10
K&R rpannier Jan 31 #11
Trump is making Sarah Palin look smart Richard_GB Jan 31 #14
Who'da thunk? 3catwoman3 Feb 1 #23
An impressively concise and cogent analysis. A lot of this is stuff everyone "sort of" knows, but putting it in ... eppur_se_muova Jan 31 #17
Link please ? I'd like to send this to someone who lives on Cessbook. nt eppur_se_muova Jan 31 #18
Threatening to kill his hostages isn't a good look either dickthegrouch Jan 31 #19
Totally outplayed internationally, turning former allies into adversaries Martin Eden Feb 1 #20
There's a problem with this analysis. druidity33 Feb 1 #21

3catwoman3

(26,365 posts)
2. The next to the last paragraph hit the nail on the head.
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 05:12 PM
Jan 31
"Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. (Bolding mine.) But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it."

And he is utterly wrong.

FHRRK

(1,069 posts)
16. I had a Supply Chain degree coming out of college
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 08:12 PM
Jan 31

Boiling it down to basics, you basically need to keep the supply chain of items flowing at the lowest possible cost and put contingencies in place to minimize disruptions.

So, this isn't only a problem for tRump, most Republicans govern this way.

I had two bosses in my first five years of college who followed the ignorant tRump approach. We control the purse strings so F every supplier, (unless they provide good perks to them personally) and force cost reductions etc, down their throats.

So what quickly happens is you might beat down a supplier, but any issue with the contract becomes a sticking point and issue. So a new better product comes out from that supplier, ah, that wasn't in the contract. Your company is can buy the product at list, or list plus for the next two years. Oh, we had a hurricane in our Puerto Rico facility, sorry capacity decreased by 15% so under the Force Majeure clause kicks in, we can't make your deliveries for the next 90 days, SORRY!

You have basically pissed off a trading partner and they are looking at any way, any possible way to bend your company over. So you end up with higher prices, more disruption, and tons of wasted time fixing things.

C_U_L8R

(46,628 posts)
4. And then there's the type of negotiation a two-year old makes
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 05:26 PM
Jan 31

By throwing tantrums and breaking things until it gets what it wants.

ancianita

(40,055 posts)
6. Thank you for this. Indeed, it's both broad and concise.
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 06:41 PM
Jan 31

I'm bookmarking for future reference. Much appreciated. Keep reading!

Lonestarblue

(12,418 posts)
7. Good analysis. I've always called distributive bargaining the zero-sum game.
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 06:42 PM
Jan 31

With zero sum, I only win if everyone else loses. Trump gets off on making people lose because it makes him feel important. In reality, he is ignorant of negotiating and he simply tries to impose his will on everyone and everything. I know it will hurt some fellow citizens, but for the sake of our futures I hope Canada teaches him a lesson in just how ignorant he is.

allegorical oracle

(4,328 posts)
15. Agree. But the problem with trump is that he isn't content to simply win. He must humiliate
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 08:00 PM
Jan 31

and punish, too. He won this election, but is he content to settle in as a competent leader? No. He has to completely wreck the place. He's not an oligarch or a king -- he's a Godfather demanding protection money and ordering goons to destroy his perceived enemies.

SergeStorms

(19,487 posts)
9. Throw in his Adderall addiction.....
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 06:45 PM
Jan 31

his malignant narcissism, and onset dementia, and you have a perfect fascist cocktail of chaos and destruction.

(Insert name of your favorite deity here) help us all! 😬

eppur_se_muova

(38,570 posts)
17. An impressively concise and cogent analysis. A lot of this is stuff everyone "sort of" knows, but putting it in ...
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 08:37 PM
Jan 31

the appropriately defined technical language (however little of that there is) makes it clear that Turnip is not just making bad individual choices, but that his whole process (what there is of that) is deeply, fundamentally, probably irreparably flawed, and can lead to non-destructive outcomes only by improbable coincidence. Hoping for good luck does not constitute a policy.

Clearly, he is the most pathologically simple-minded individual ever installed in our nation's highest office. And that was obvious long before he even chose to run for the nomination, for people who paid the slightest attention. This country is going to pay a very high price for the gullibility, laziness, neglect, and inattention of its eligible voters.

A broken clock is right twice a day; Turnip can't even manage that.

dickthegrouch

(3,949 posts)
19. Threatening to kill his hostages isn't a good look either
Fri Jan 31, 2025, 11:05 PM
Jan 31

There’s a reason the government doesn’t negotiate with terrorists. But what happens when the terrorists are our own government?

Martin Eden

(13,991 posts)
20. Totally outplayed internationally, turning former allies into adversaries
Sat Feb 1, 2025, 08:33 AM
Feb 1

The smile on Putin's face is growing wider.

druidity33

(6,675 posts)
21. There's a problem with this analysis.
Sat Feb 1, 2025, 10:09 AM
Feb 1

When you take into account the US military and Trumps vindictiveness... well, let's just say it changes the equation. When i helped negotiate Union contracts there was no bomb i could drop to make the Management acquiesce. Emphasis on bomb.



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