Not an expert, but I assume the Syrian turnover will result in a long period of instability

[lindysalsagal]

Things could get far worse before a superpower comes in to establish a new government.

Not saying we should, but if we don't who will? Iran?

If we attempt to "help" them establish a representative democracy, how many will believe it a realistic possibility? Not confident at all that we can export our open, free representative government.

More likely, religious groups will attempt to establish a theocracy. And that will be violent.

[MaryMagdaline]

1. The Butcher Despot is dead. Long live the Butcher Despot.

Whatever comes next, Taliban-type control of women will be worse.

[Tetrachloride]

2. Stability in surrounding countries is key. Money, inflation, food, water, internet costs, internet access.

and if Trump shoots off his mouth or other.


Russia's influence as implied in other threads ? Seems to me hot air no matter the direction.

[pfitz59]

3. I beliwve "Syria" as a country will no longer exist.

It will be chopped up into new, smaller entities.

[Igel]

7. In a way, that would make sense.

But be massively destabilizing.

Turkey wouldn't allow a Kurdistan because then Turkey's Kurds would have a more concrete goal--as would Iraq's and Iran's.

Would it be Sunni? What about the Alawites? Until a few decades ago they weren't really Shi'a but were instead heretics--then Iran suddenly needed solidarity for its neo-imperialist goals were reframed as a branch of Shi'ism.

Would Turkey annex the islands of Turkomen ethnicity resulting from the initial migration and occupation of Turkey 800 years ago (with bits from colonial resettlement under the Ottomans)? What about the intervening bits to make the territories continguous? Ethnic cleansing?

And the Chaldeans and other minorities-among-minorities? And does economic viability matter?

I got no solutions. Just a list of problems that blocks any solution that doesn't sound remarkably Swiss, but even that requires a certain large element of shared cultural values (and that's a problem).

[bronxiteforever]

4. There are 3.2 million Syrian refugees in Turkey

Whatever government be assured that Erdogan wants stability so that repatriation can happen.
Russia badly failed in supporting Assad but will fight for the Mediterranean port it was granted by Assad.
Iran is in no shape to fight a war for Syria.

It will be a jump ball for control but I don’t see the US committing more troops to establish a government there under the next President who takes office shortly.

[Strelnikov_]

5. The two coastal provinces are still in play

The Russians probably want to keep the naval base, and the air base is needed to support the naval base.

It’s their Clark and Subic in the Med. Probably more important, as they do not have the access to bases worldwide. Loss could put an end to their operations in Africa.

Considering how much they need Iran for drone/missile supply, can’t see them strong arming Iran for base rights any time soon.

Not to mention the resultant saber rattling if they get a base in the gulf.

[albacore]

6. Middle-East powderkeg. You history fans will understand: "..some damned foolish thing in the Balkans." (Bismark) nt