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Sympthsical

(10,411 posts)
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 05:55 PM Nov 2024

Final predictions?

Been reading through polls. One of the things in the dead heat atmosphere I'd been waiting on is a last minute shift towards Harris due to events or Trump fatigue among an exhausted electorate. I think the MSG rally hit that magic spot at just the right time to tilt swing states into a final Harris favor. I will not be surprised if Wisconsin and Michigan are won by 3-4%, and I think Pennsylvania has the potential for 2 or even 3% for Harris. So, this is my map. I genuinely do not know what will happen in Georgia. Trump's always been slightly ahead there, but we'll see what we see there given events this week.

So, 292-308 for a Harris win. About 4-5% nationally with similar Biden margins in the popular vote but with cleaner swing state wins.

My wild card: Arizona.

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Final predictions? (Original Post) Sympthsical Nov 2024 OP
We win AZ. I'm next door in NM. Lets say ALBliberal Nov 2024 #1
Unfortunately Prairie Gates Nov 2024 #2
Final prediction,... magicarpet Nov 2024 #3
Narcissists always escape consequences. bucolic_frolic Nov 2024 #5
The Harris campaign is focused on swing states bucolic_frolic Nov 2024 #4
my prediction lrymcqueen Nov 2024 #6
I like your confidence FHRRK Nov 2024 #11
Harris wins the popular vote by 9 million votes. Wins the EC 292-246 Rustynaerduwell Nov 2024 #7
Messing around with my map Ishoutandscream2 Nov 2024 #15
My prediction lrymcqueen Nov 2024 #8
Landslide... returnee Nov 2024 #9
That's my feeling too... late momentum to Harris WarGamer Nov 2024 #10
Kamala wins and it's not close. W_HAMILTON Nov 2024 #12
horse race appears to be a fabrication... WarGamer Nov 2024 #13
Even with the news about IA, I'm still at 284-288, with 319 the outside max Fiendish Thingy Nov 2024 #14
Im drinking the kool-aid Tribetime Nov 2024 #16
Right on!! lrymcqueen Nov 2024 #17
Can't do it kwolf68 Nov 2024 #18
I think she squeaks out GA and AZ as well. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2024 #19
My biggest disagreement with this is that I think Nevada is more wildcard than AZ ColinC Nov 2024 #20

magicarpet

(17,579 posts)
3. Final prediction,...
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:02 PM
Nov 2024

The Tangerine Traitor has a heart attack the day before election day and croaks.

The entire world breaths a sigh of refief,... then has a huge party.

bucolic_frolic

(48,567 posts)
5. Narcissists always escape consequences.
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:06 PM
Nov 2024

Aging actresses, rock stars. Sometimes when the looks give out, they just go belly up.

bucolic_frolic

(48,567 posts)
4. The Harris campaign is focused on swing states
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:05 PM
Nov 2024

I expect broad but shallow margins for House races, snare drum tight races for Senate, and a squeak through win for Harris.

I think we would have taken NC without the hurricane. I think GA is lost. We performed miracles there in 2020 and 2021. Not going to happen again. Too much publicity and GOP push back in court cases since, even if Trump is the defendant.

It boils to MI WI PA. We can win without NV and NC, but we'd be at 270. We need both NC and NV if we lose PA.

Nationally she'll best Trump by almost 16 million votes. The problem is Trump is bringing legions of new MAGA votes in swing state rural ethnic communities. That is where outfits like Turning Point operate. It's a virtual mind control operation - for uneducated hayseeds.

lrymcqueen

(36 posts)
6. my prediction
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:08 PM
Nov 2024

Harris wins with 383 but no less than 344 electoral votes.

She gets 91,000,000 in popular vote or more

Chump gets 69,000,000 in the popular vote or less

Rustynaerduwell

(740 posts)
7. Harris wins the popular vote by 9 million votes. Wins the EC 292-246
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:09 PM
Nov 2024

Confident in the former prediction. Not as much in the latter.

lrymcqueen

(36 posts)
8. My prediction
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:10 PM
Nov 2024

Harris wins with 383 but no less than 344 electoral votes.

She gets 91,000,000 in popular vote or more

Chump gets 69,000,000 in the popular vote or less

WarGamer

(16,293 posts)
10. That's my feeling too... late momentum to Harris
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:38 PM
Nov 2024

Blue Wall holds strong and ONE of AZ, GA or NC goes blue again. Plus maybe a surprise or two... like Iowa

Comfortable win, we get media calls late Tuesday night.

W_HAMILTON

(8,695 posts)
12. Kamala wins and it's not close.
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:41 PM
Nov 2024

I see her winning anywhere from slightly less electoral votes than Biden (but with a larger margin when it comes to the popular vote) to a blue wave approaching 2008 Obama levels.

If I had to pick, I'd say it will be closer to 2008 than 2020.

Fiendish Thingy

(19,023 posts)
14. Even with the news about IA, I'm still at 284-288, with 319 the outside max
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 06:48 PM
Nov 2024

I will be hysterically happy if I’m on the low side.

kwolf68

(7,890 posts)
18. Can't do it
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 07:50 PM
Nov 2024

I have a way of making pronouncements in my fantasy baseball league that always bite me in the ass so I am not doing that here, nor will I. I deal in statistics in my life and have a feel, my wife constantly asks "how are we doing" and I stay mum. Part of that is my fear of what the bastards will do, but if everything is on the up and up, it's not the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
20. My biggest disagreement with this is that I think Nevada is more wildcard than AZ
Sat Nov 2, 2024, 09:25 PM
Nov 2024

But I'm going largely based on early votes than anything else. So I don't know...

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