General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFinal predictions?
Been reading through polls. One of the things in the dead heat atmosphere I'd been waiting on is a last minute shift towards Harris due to events or Trump fatigue among an exhausted electorate. I think the MSG rally hit that magic spot at just the right time to tilt swing states into a final Harris favor. I will not be surprised if Wisconsin and Michigan are won by 3-4%, and I think Pennsylvania has the potential for 2 or even 3% for Harris. So, this is my map. I genuinely do not know what will happen in Georgia. Trump's always been slightly ahead there, but we'll see what we see there given events this week.
So, 292-308 for a Harris win. About 4-5% nationally with similar Biden margins in the popular vote but with cleaner swing state wins.
My wild card: Arizona.

ALBliberal
(2,915 posts)I just feel it. And hey those 200 postcards gotta help a bit (sarcasm).
Prairie Gates
(4,055 posts)287 Trump
251 Harris
Worst case scenario. Make preparations.
magicarpet
(17,579 posts)The Tangerine Traitor has a heart attack the day before election day and croaks.
The entire world breaths a sigh of refief,... then has a huge party.
bucolic_frolic
(48,567 posts)Aging actresses, rock stars. Sometimes when the looks give out, they just go belly up.
bucolic_frolic
(48,567 posts)I expect broad but shallow margins for House races, snare drum tight races for Senate, and a squeak through win for Harris.
I think we would have taken NC without the hurricane. I think GA is lost. We performed miracles there in 2020 and 2021. Not going to happen again. Too much publicity and GOP push back in court cases since, even if Trump is the defendant.
It boils to MI WI PA. We can win without NV and NC, but we'd be at 270. We need both NC and NV if we lose PA.
Nationally she'll best Trump by almost 16 million votes. The problem is Trump is bringing legions of new MAGA votes in swing state rural ethnic communities. That is where outfits like Turning Point operate. It's a virtual mind control operation - for uneducated hayseeds.
lrymcqueen
(36 posts)Harris wins with 383 but no less than 344 electoral votes.
She gets 91,000,000 in popular vote or more
Chump gets 69,000,000 in the popular vote or less
FHRRK
(1,031 posts)And I am going to box you in. I will take 330 to 343.
And I hope you are correct.
Rustynaerduwell
(740 posts)Confident in the former prediction. Not as much in the latter.
Ishoutandscream2
(6,746 posts)My electoral numbers line up with yours.
lrymcqueen
(36 posts)Harris wins with 383 but no less than 344 electoral votes.
She gets 91,000,000 in popular vote or more
Chump gets 69,000,000 in the popular vote or less
returnee
(402 posts)
followed by multiple challenges and court cases, then
who knows.
WarGamer
(16,293 posts)Blue Wall holds strong and ONE of AZ, GA or NC goes blue again. Plus maybe a surprise or two... like Iowa
Comfortable win, we get media calls late Tuesday night.
W_HAMILTON
(8,695 posts)I see her winning anywhere from slightly less electoral votes than Biden (but with a larger margin when it comes to the popular vote) to a blue wave approaching 2008 Obama levels.
If I had to pick, I'd say it will be closer to 2008 than 2020.
WarGamer
(16,293 posts)I'll put that bottle of La Grande Dame in the frig Tuesday morning...
Fiendish Thingy
(19,023 posts)I will be hysterically happy if Im on the low side.
Tribetime
(6,421 posts)lrymcqueen
(36 posts)I like your thinking!! I think this is more likely that it being razor thin. Way more likely!!
kwolf68
(7,890 posts)I have a way of making pronouncements in my fantasy baseball league that always bite me in the ass so I am not doing that here, nor will I. I deal in statistics in my life and have a feel, my wife constantly asks "how are we doing" and I stay mum. Part of that is my fear of what the bastards will do, but if everything is on the up and up, it's not the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
Quixote1818
(30,602 posts)ColinC
(11,098 posts)But I'm going largely based on early votes than anything else. So I don't know...