Early votes cast so far at 53% female, 45% male

[AdamGG]

This is huge if it holds up. Women vote for Kamala at a significantly higher rate. Polls don't capture enthusiasm and which voters are more likely to turn out.

The data can be found here - click on gender to see the breakdown - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

[arlyellowdog]

1. Nevada seems more males voted than females

[dweller]

2. 10% unknown gender

Hawaii also has more M than F with 9% unknown gender

Make of that what you will



✌🏻

[AdamGG]

3. Hawaii shows more men than women voting

I'm not sure what that means, since Hawaii is one of the states that Kamala will carry by the widest margin. But, Pennsylvania is 56% women/43% men, Michigan is 57% women/43% men, Wisconsin is 51% women/43% men, North Carolina 55% women/44% men, Georgia 56% women/44% men.

[getagrip_already]

4. Look at the fine print......

Most states dont track this information.

It is being reported by news organizations who are not disclosing how they are determining this data.

It is probably "exit polling", or head counting lines at random times.

But it isnt actual state voting data. Take it with a grain of salt.

As much as i like good news, i dont like either false hope or false fear.

[AdamGG]

5. Fair enough, but where does the fine print say that?

At the top of the page breaking down the gender results, it says,

"Some states provide details about the early votes that are cast, including partisan divisions and age of voters, as well as voting method."

So, apparently at least "some" of the states do provide this data. Other than that, I'm not seeing any caveats and am kind of surprised that NBC would post iffy inferred data without disclosing that.

[Quiet Em]

6. Here's a link to the best place to get early voting data

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

Only six states provide gender data

[W_HAMILTON]

10. And here is the current data for those states:

CO: 51% women - 49% men
GA: 55% women - 44% men
ID: 52% women - 44% men
MI: 56% women - 43% men
NC: 52% women - 42% men
VA: 55% women - 45% men

[getagrip_already]

8. Yeah, i should have said look at what the fine print doesnt say... lol

Just another example of the media teating voting guesses as fact.

[onenote]

7. How does that compare to 2020?

We know that 53% of the total - early and election day -- voters in 2020 were female. Was that more or less than the percentage of early voters? Is the lead in early voting by women this year going to be offset by a higher percentage of male voters on election day?

I'm optimistic about the outcome, but I'm not going to base my optimism on statistics that don't really tell me that much.

[AdamGG]

9. Good points - so is 53% female turnout already baked into the polls?

If that's the 2020 turnout level, I wonder if it's already calculated for in the polling data. Is information about those type of assumptions that pollsters make about demographics and turnout publicly available?