BTRTN: Do All You Can Now... Because Come Election Day, Things Will Really Get Ugly

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers asks: If the 2024 election is indeed as impossibly close as current polling indicates, what might Election Day and beyond actually look like? Read how Trump could try to push the decision to the Supreme Court, the House of Representatives, or simply into a wildly combustible state of chaos and doubt in “BTRTN: Do All You Can Now… Because Come Election Day, Things Will Really Get Ugly.”

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/10/26/btrtn-do-all-you-can-now-because-come-election-day-things-will-really-get-ugly/

Excerpts: "Today — for all of the work you’ve done, dollars you’ve donated, and postcards you’ve written — lefties need to take a deep breath and contemplate what is really going to happen on November 5… indeed, what is already happening, and what will likely drag on for weeks following. We have just days to kick it all into yet another, higher, more urgent gear. Welcome to the sequel: 'Election Chaos 2024, The Even Bigger Lie...'
"When seven swing states are all within the margin of error, the range of plausible outcomes is staggering. Donald Trump could run the table, win all seven and come away with a modern landslide and an undeniable mandate. Worse still, he could control the House and the Senate, and take a wrecking ball to American democracy. Then again, it is equally possible that Kamala Harris runs the table, delivers a crushing rejection of MAGA politics, and leaves a ruined Republican Party in need of a post-Trump savior. But far more likely: razor thin elections in a number of swing states cannot be called a full 24 hours after polls close. America braces for uncertainty… and the campaigns swing into overtime..."
"It is all too easy to envision 2024 as “Florida 2000 Redux..."
"What does it mean for all of us? It may be frustrating to hear, but our best and perhaps only defense is to make sure that Kamala Harris wins — and wins by enough of a margin in enough swing states to eliminate the possibility that the Republicans could elevate a case to the Supreme Court..."

[Walleye]

1. My only hope is that the judge in the New York case sentences him to jail forthwith

[durablend]

2. This also applies to everyday things as well

Whatever food or supplies you'd better get now because regardless of the outcome I'm seeing law and order going out the window after the election. Either their supporters are "vindicated" and don't need to follow laws anymore or they're going to be even more pissed off and out criming to "make the left pay"

[WiVoter]

3. What Is BTRTN?

I plead ignorance.

[phylny]

4. Born to Run the Numbers

[WiVoter]

5. Thank yoo

[lees1975]

6. Born to Run the Numbers is a polling aggregate like RCP, 538, Cook Political

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/

Commentary is usually pretty fair. They are far better, in terms of the way they comment on the data, than 538 and miles ahead of RCP. Their discernment when it comes to bogus red wave polls and how they read the data they get, including where it comes from, and their accuracy is worthy of a B minus.

[tgards79]

8. BTRTN Accuracy

Well, they got 34/35 Senate races right in 2022, and 35/36 governor races right. The only ones they got wrong were the last two of these races called, Nevada Senate (Rosen won by less than a point) and Arizona Governor (Hobbs won by less than a point). So that's quite good, and better than anyone else in the 2022 midterms.

[lees1975]

7. Be prepared. It is going to get ugly.

What would happen if, say, Harris/Walz carries Florida by a point? Would a certification get through their state legislature with DeSantis? There'a already been extremist rhetoric about giving North Carolina's electors to Trump because the hurricane will suppress the Republican vote in the western part of the state. And there are county supervisors in Georgia suing the state because they've been told by a judge their job isn't to decide whether they think the ballot count is off, it's to simply certify the vote.

Nevada and Georgia, among the swing states, have Republican legislatures. It seems Georgia is inclined to follow the law. Is Nevada?

If they know he's a Nazi and they are willing to vote for him anyway, voting is as meaningless as it was in Germany in 1932.