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lindysalsagal

(22,454 posts)
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 12:50 PM Oct 2024

Michigan is still Harris by .2 if you use the non-winger polls:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/michigan

If you average MIRS, Redfield (a winger poll) WSJ (winger) GSG, Quinnipiac, Research, Glengariff, Harris is holding 2 tenths ahead.

Harris can still win if she loses MI but gets PA and North Carolina.

So, it's the 3 states at this point: PA, MI and NC. If Harris steals AZ it's game over. Just like 2020. Entirely possible.
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Michigan is still Harris by .2 if you use the non-winger polls: (Original Post) lindysalsagal Oct 2024 OP
I early voted for her. OLDMDDEM Oct 2024 #1
+0.8 on 538 Johnny2X2X Oct 2024 #2
Good to know! lindysalsagal Oct 2024 #5
Steal is a poor choice of words Sugarcoated Oct 2024 #3
I think of the mighty RNC and state legislature who believe they can keep the state red. lindysalsagal Oct 2024 #7
So far, early voting looks promising: 56% female lindysalsagal Oct 2024 #4
While I applaud your efforts to unskew the polls Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #6
It comes down to the swing states I hate that it comes down to that Dem4life1234 Oct 2024 #8
That's 270. She is up almost 1 point on 538 which includes all of the red wave polls. lees1975 Oct 2024 #9
Early Michigan voter here rogerballard Oct 2024 #10

Johnny2X2X

(22,228 posts)
2. +0.8 on 538
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 12:53 PM
Oct 2024
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

I live in Michigan, she's going to win here. We have ease of voting laws here. 9 days of early voing. Same day registration. Our laws ensure people get to vote, that means she has a huge advantage here.

Sugarcoated

(8,132 posts)
3. Steal is a poor choice of words
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 12:56 PM
Oct 2024

but, yeah I believe right wing polls are skewing the averages in all the swing states and nationally

lindysalsagal

(22,454 posts)
7. I think of the mighty RNC and state legislature who believe they can keep the state red.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 12:59 PM
Oct 2024

But it remains to be seen. Since so many people retire there, it's less predictable. There are voters there from all over the northeast.

Fiendish Thingy

(19,023 posts)
6. While I applaud your efforts to unskew the polls
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 12:58 PM
Oct 2024

I still feel strongly that, at this point, polling averages cannot be trusted.

lees1975

(6,235 posts)
9. That's 270. She is up almost 1 point on 538 which includes all of the red wave polls.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 01:16 PM
Oct 2024

Which means she will probably carry Michigan by anywhere from 4 to 6 points, given their prior accuracy.

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