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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMichigan is still Harris by .2 if you use the non-winger polls:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/michiganIf you average MIRS, Redfield (a winger poll) WSJ (winger) GSG, Quinnipiac, Research, Glengariff, Harris is holding 2 tenths ahead.
Harris can still win if she loses MI but gets PA and North Carolina.
So, it's the 3 states at this point: PA, MI and NC. If Harris steals AZ it's game over. Just like 2020. Entirely possible.
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Michigan is still Harris by .2 if you use the non-winger polls: (Original Post)
lindysalsagal
Oct 2024
OP
I think of the mighty RNC and state legislature who believe they can keep the state red.
lindysalsagal
Oct 2024
#7
OLDMDDEM
(2,266 posts)1. I early voted for her.
Johnny2X2X
(22,228 posts)2. +0.8 on 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
I live in Michigan, she's going to win here. We have ease of voting laws here. 9 days of early voing. Same day registration. Our laws ensure people get to vote, that means she has a huge advantage here.
I live in Michigan, she's going to win here. We have ease of voting laws here. 9 days of early voing. Same day registration. Our laws ensure people get to vote, that means she has a huge advantage here.
lindysalsagal
(22,454 posts)5. Good to know!
Sugarcoated
(8,132 posts)3. Steal is a poor choice of words
but, yeah I believe right wing polls are skewing the averages in all the swing states and nationally
lindysalsagal
(22,454 posts)7. I think of the mighty RNC and state legislature who believe they can keep the state red.
But it remains to be seen. Since so many people retire there, it's less predictable. There are voters there from all over the northeast.
lindysalsagal
(22,454 posts)4. So far, early voting looks promising: 56% female
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-michigan/
90% of the early vote is age 41 and older. So when the younger women show up later, they can balance out the winger Nov 5 vote.
90% of the early vote is age 41 and older. So when the younger women show up later, they can balance out the winger Nov 5 vote.
Fiendish Thingy
(19,023 posts)6. While I applaud your efforts to unskew the polls
I still feel strongly that, at this point, polling averages cannot be trusted.
Dem4life1234
(2,426 posts)8. It comes down to the swing states I hate that it comes down to that
lees1975
(6,235 posts)9. That's 270. She is up almost 1 point on 538 which includes all of the red wave polls.
Which means she will probably carry Michigan by anywhere from 4 to 6 points, given their prior accuracy.
rogerballard
(3,924 posts)10. Early Michigan voter here
I feel pretty confident she will win Michigan. It is ground game and GOTV