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LonePirate

(14,004 posts)
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:14 PM Oct 2024

Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November?

With regard to the Harris/Walz presidential ticket, how do you feel with regard to their chances to win at least 270 Electoral College votes?

I love our candidates and I was very confident a couple of weeks ago but things seem different now as the MAGA horde seems to be increasing in size.


197 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Very confident we will win
83 (42%)
Somewhat confident we will win
72 (37%)
Not sure what to think
35 (18%)
Not very confident as things seem bad
6 (3%)
No confidence whatsoever as things look bleak
1 (1%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
45 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November? (Original Post) LonePirate Oct 2024 OP
Not giving up, not going back! Walleye Oct 2024 #1
I vacillate between "we're gonna stomp his orange ass' to 'we're gonna squeak by.' CrispyQ Oct 2024 #2
Yeah, this is me. Arthur_Frain Oct 2024 #20
I'm somewhere between toss-up and late night victory without a concession speech until 2 days later. WarGamer Oct 2024 #3
Same exact spot DeepWinter Oct 2024 #24
So confident I'm already preparing the crow I'm going to serve up. BannonsLiver Oct 2024 #4
It's all about turnout. NameAlreadyTaken Oct 2024 #5
Democrats win the Presidency, House and Senate FarPoint Oct 2024 #6
RSO rso Oct 2024 #32
I'm waiting to see if there are any late trends, but I feel OK at the moment servermsh Oct 2024 #7
I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see a replay of 2020 Rocknation Oct 2024 #8
I am somewhat confident. Initech Oct 2024 #9
Amazed at the "Very Confident" Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #10
I'm not. A few weeks ago, nearly half the forum who voted said she'd win by Bill Clinton margins. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #12
Jeez, guy Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #13
+10000 BannonsLiver Oct 2024 #18
No. I think this place is setting itself up a really bad election night. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #40
Wooooooow Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #44
Honestly you don't seem to "love" the confidence. BannonsLiver Oct 2024 #19
Less confident than a few weeks ago but still somewhat confident. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #11
very damned confident Torchlight Oct 2024 #14
Leaning toward more confident ...and I have a strong feeling that Jrose Oct 2024 #15
Despite living in Texas, I have guarded confidence - TBF Oct 2024 #16
Mostly confident, especially because Jrose Oct 2024 #17
I think she'll win, but I'm very nervous Poiuyt Oct 2024 #21
Republican chicanery is my only fear. Cartoonist Oct 2024 #22
In 2000 i learned to stop being confident about elections Buckeyeblue Oct 2024 #23
Chill about it Sympthsical Oct 2024 #25
Very confident, but with a disclaimer. Valdosta Oct 2024 #26
It's a coin flip - I have no idea what dipshits in 5 swing states will do. maxsolomon Oct 2024 #27
Confident, though not as much as I was right after the debate. Elessar Zappa Oct 2024 #28
As long as women can vote this election, we win it all JT45242 Oct 2024 #29
Very confident until I read crap like this: Bayard Oct 2024 #30
Win the popular vote edhopper Oct 2024 #31
My gut has been wrong before BWdem4life Oct 2024 #33
It's Schroedinger's election; we are both winning and losing. The polls don't tell us anything. Ocelot II Oct 2024 #34
I chose the somewhat option Quiet Em Oct 2024 #35
I had a conversation a while back with a former chair of the NC Democratic Party Persondem Oct 2024 #36
Was there a category for orange men? n/t Blaukraut Oct 2024 #42
If we vote, we win. tavernier Oct 2024 #37
Not sure what to think Mz Pip Oct 2024 #38
Very confident we kacekwl Oct 2024 #39
Note sure what to think WestMichRad Oct 2024 #41
Win or lose, you may be right n/t Polybius Oct 2024 #45
I think it will be a blowout that surprises the entire country. Women have had it with Trump's shit. Vinca Oct 2024 #43

CrispyQ

(39,025 posts)
2. I vacillate between "we're gonna stomp his orange ass' to 'we're gonna squeak by.'
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:23 PM
Oct 2024

We're definitely gonna stomp him on the popular vote. I predict Harris will get more votes than Biden did, & Trump will get fewer votes than he got in 2020. Electorally? IDK. Supposedly her own internal polls show it's close in swing states I wouldn't have thought would be this close.

Arthur_Frain

(2,220 posts)
20. Yeah, this is me.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:12 PM
Oct 2024

On a good day I see the GE scalding his ass for ten million votes (it should be more than twice that), then I drive through a certain section of town and I wonder if all is lost.

Trying to tell myself they’re a noisy few.

FarPoint

(13,822 posts)
6. Democrats win the Presidency, House and Senate
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:27 PM
Oct 2024

The battle will be post election deniers and again, claims of a stolen election....This will possibly have some violence attached to it ..... but Democrats will prevail...

servermsh

(1,406 posts)
7. I'm waiting to see if there are any late trends, but I feel OK at the moment
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:32 PM
Oct 2024

What I don't like is that for the past two and a half weeks, Trump/Vance have done something like three times as many speeches as Harris/Walz. I want to see more rallies.

Rocknation

(44,895 posts)
8. I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see a replay of 2020
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:46 PM
Oct 2024

Last edited Sat Oct 26, 2024, 01:31 AM - Edit history (2)

with votes coming in from first-timers, youngsters, independents, the formerly apathetic, mortified moderates, embarrassed evangelicals, and especially ex-MAGAts who the pollsters haven't been able to "count" on.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18540373


Rocknation

Initech

(103,550 posts)
9. I am somewhat confident.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:47 PM
Oct 2024

I am getting really sick of seeing a million polls and Trump's stupid ugly face on every single social media post. I am seriously thinking of taking a break from it until the election is over.

Self Esteem

(1,931 posts)
12. I'm not. A few weeks ago, nearly half the forum who voted said she'd win by Bill Clinton margins.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 12:56 PM
Oct 2024

I love the confidence but it's not happening lol

Self Esteem

(1,931 posts)
40. No. I think this place is setting itself up a really bad election night.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:43 PM
Oct 2024

It's not fun watching a train barrel down on someone and when you warn them, you're attacked for it.

The amount of people who think this election is going to be a blowout amazes me and yes, worries me because I don't think they're mentally prepared for what is likely to come: multiple days of waiting for returns because of how close things will be - and yes, the real possibility Trump actually does prevail in the end.

Torchlight

(4,253 posts)
14. very damned confident
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:00 PM
Oct 2024

Confident enough that I'm constantly giggling at each boy who cries wolf instead of rolling my eyes at them.

Jrose

(1,407 posts)
15. Leaning toward more confident ...and I have a strong feeling that
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:01 PM
Oct 2024

VP Harris will 'kick the ball high and through the net' in her October town hall that replaces the second debate with truth-dodger Djt.

TBF

(35,007 posts)
16. Despite living in Texas, I have guarded confidence -
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:01 PM
Oct 2024

VP Harris is the right person at the right time - and she does not have the negatives that have dragged down some in the past. It gives me hope that some prominent republicans are putting country over party. We really need voices of the future to keep us from not only turning back the clock (womens rights etc), but also deal with very pressing problems like climate control. I am very confident we can win the popular vote, less confident on electoral college. I know Trump will try to steal it, just hope leadership is thinking about those possibilities.

Jrose

(1,407 posts)
17. Mostly confident, especially because
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:02 PM
Oct 2024

VP Harris will 'kick the ball high and through the net' in her October town hall that replaces the second debate with truth-dodger Djt.

Buckeyeblue

(5,779 posts)
23. In 2000 i learned to stop being confident about elections
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 01:27 PM
Oct 2024

I think VP Harris is running a good campaign. We have the funds for a good ground game to get out the vote.

Sympthsical

(10,411 posts)
25. Chill about it
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:45 PM
Oct 2024

I just don't foresee America bringing Trump back.

2016 I saw coming a mile away. Knew 2020 would come down to the wire in swing states. This time, I do think it will be close-ish in swings, but Trump is put to bed for the last time.

It could be my sense of the country is flawed in some way, but I read around in a lot of spaces and speak to all kinds of people. Just don't see it. Even Republicans feel like they're, I dunno, going through the motions? Like they know it's not happening. It almost feels like our own obsession over him is giving him more life than he would ordinarily have. I hear about the man far more in blue political spaces than red ones. It feels like they're pointedly ignoring him, knowing being anti-Harris is more productive for them than being pro-Trump.

I would genuinely be surprised by a Trump win. I'm not saying a hubristic "We got this!" situation (no 2016 repeats, please). But I'm honestly not feeling any anxiety about November. It just feels like he's done.

Valdosta

(331 posts)
26. Very confident, but with a disclaimer.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:49 PM
Oct 2024

The Republicans likely have something planned other than just getting out the vote.

maxsolomon

(35,787 posts)
27. It's a coin flip - I have no idea what dipshits in 5 swing states will do.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:49 PM
Oct 2024

I'm trying to not think about that fuck winning.

JT45242

(3,122 posts)
29. As long as women can vote this election, we win it all
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 02:54 PM
Oct 2024

So many women had silently had miscarriages and know...holy crap if that happened now, I might die, be sterilized, etc. because of what they have done and it will only get worse.

When my wife had a miscarriage...we were devastated. When it didn't all pass within a couple of days. They scheduled a D&C on Friday so there was ZERO RISK of complications over the weekend. If it happened now, we would have had to wait until it was infected badly enough that her life was at immediate risk (minutes or hours, not days) before a doctor would touch her where we live now. If that means a hysterectomy, her death, whatever. Doesn't matter to the Republicans.

She is telling her story now.

If women know this could be them, their, sisters, their daughters, their grand daughter, niece, etc. they will not vote for any Republican for any office above local city council.

BWdem4life

(2,504 posts)
33. My gut has been wrong before
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:00 PM
Oct 2024

(2004, until I saw the last Ohio polls and realized the fix was in.) Wanted Kerry to pick Clark for VP.

It has also been right:

2000, 2016 (my gut said it could go either way). Both times I didn't like the VP pick.
2008... 2012... 2020, I was confident.

So, in the past 6 elections I've been 5-1

This year I am confident, it's gonna be Kamala. Positive energy and good VP selection always wins over negative energy (plus Vance drags their ticket down).

Persondem

(2,097 posts)
36. I had a conversation a while back with a former chair of the NC Democratic Party
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:17 PM
Oct 2024

He was smart, well informed and did a great job as Party Chair for his 4 years in office. He told me that, unfortunately, white men did the best in political contests. An African American man will perform 3-5% worse that a white man. A white woman will similarly perform 3-5% worse than a white man. An African America woman will perform 6-8% worse than a white man. Americans may have gotten over some of these biases, but I have a feeling that there's still enough racism and sexism out there to make this election far closer than it should be. It should be a Blue Wave year, and I really hope that women, younger voters and disaffected Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

tavernier

(13,413 posts)
37. If we vote, we win.
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:32 PM
Oct 2024

I think we are much more motivated, so I believe our voters will be there. Not much complacency or indecision on our side, or there’s, but our numbers are bigger.

Mz Pip

(27,998 posts)
38. Not sure what to think
Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:40 PM
Oct 2024

I live in a dark blue dot in a blue state so comprehending Trump’s support has been an exercise in futility. Every time he opens his mouth something more despicable comes out. I do not get his appeal. I don’t see how his supporters don’t throw their hands up in disgust.

This shouldn’t be even close. Sometimes I’m optimistic, sometimes I’m pessimistic.

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