General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow can a civil war even happen?
One occasionally seems to perceive hints, or threats, that there's gonna be a civil war if Trump doesn't win this.
How?
When the Southern states seceded from the Union, they were still states -- organized, functioning political entities with tax revenue. They were in a position to form and fund a real army, with real professional officers, and hundreds of thousands of enlisted men, and armament at least comparable to what the Yankees had. An army capable of going toe-to-toe with the United States Army for four years.
Nobody now calling for civil war has that kind of resources. If every private militia club in the United States were to gather in one place and join forces under a unified command, they would not last half an hour in combat against any state's national guard. The outcome would be no different if they were reinforced by the entire membership of the NRA.
Another problem is this: The present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist rural areas and cosmopolitan urban areas, with the suburbs and exurbs as political battlegrounds. A civil war would be a war of the cities vs. the countryside, with the suburbs and exurbs as military battlegrounds. And the cities and the countryside are economically interdependent. If commerce between them were interrupted by war, both populations would be feeling pain in a week.
How can a civil war happen?
Sogo
(5,758 posts)JHB
(37,410 posts)There's always the RW fantasy-land brigade that imagines the military will side with them because of the "rightness" of their cause.
Think of them as Mirror-Universe John Browns: Brown thought his raid on the Harper's Ferry arsenal would spark a slave uprising, but most enslaved people had a more realistic view of how it would play out and kept their heads down.
These goobers also imagine a vast horde of sympathizers, imagine that THEY are the "silent majority", and can't see that if they ever pull the trigger, they'll be squashed like bugs.
sarisataka
(20,930 posts)Is this your first time here?
Aristus
(68,275 posts)we would have hospitals and trained medical professionals. They would have Uncle Mervis and his third-rate aid kit from Wal-Mart.
notemason
(572 posts)they have hydroxychloroquine
usonian
(13,593 posts)What we seem to have is general disruption of "domestic tranquility" via random shootings, vote interference, dividing states into "free" abs "abortion free" and so on, the way Putin gets his flunkies in the US to destroy it from the inside by basically breaking everything. Military too!
You see it right now with Putin's footsoldiers planning to shut down the government.
I put it almost entirely on Putin.
Do not ignore the James Bond villain.
NameAlreadyTaken
(1,485 posts)iemanja
(54,728 posts)not unless the Southern National Guards go along with the Magats.
Ocelot II
(120,642 posts)What could be possible is something like The Troubles in Northern Ireland, in which paramilitaries like the IRA and Ulster paramilitaries engaged in guerrilla warfare against the British Army and commercial and political targets. Here, I can imagine Trump loyalists like the Proud Boys and various other right-wing and neo-Nazi groups attacking government targets and civilians, which would of course result in conflicts with police and National Guard troops. There were a lot of civilian casualties in Northern Ireland because of riots and the IRA blowing things up. It could happen here, I think.
wnylib
(24,259 posts)Palpatine
(21 posts)real potential for what William S. Lind calls "fourth-generation warfare"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare
iemanja
(54,728 posts)FrankBooth
(1,816 posts)More 'Civil War' is imminent talk. How new and unusual. Yawn.
Intractable
(424 posts)It will look like random acts of violence on protestors, black churches, families of politicians, and liberal groups.
The modern-day Mason-Dixin line metaphorically runs through every city, town, neighborhood, and even family houses.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,370 posts)Only domestic terrorism or a military coup are possible, not a blue vs gray two armies/governments in conflict.
Gore1FL
(21,830 posts)They don't need powers and principalities to bring internal strife and chaos to our shores.
Silent Type
(6,497 posts)WarGamer
(15,298 posts)No one would believe a novel where the 101st Airborne and 82nd Airborne would deploy to California to take on the Marines from Pendleton.
With a real stretch of the imagination...
Maybe a future SCOTUS would rule that secession was LEGAL and ordered a dissolution including a division of all military assets to the States...
Then maybe a ground war?? All silly actually.
RidinWithHarris
(790 posts)If Trump corrupts the federal government as badly as he likely would, I can see some blue states and/or cities simply refusing to go along with it, whether they explicitly try to break away from the US or simply refuse to comply with authoritarian excesses.
That, more than Trump losing the election, would make MAGAts in those places revolt (well, they're already revolting 😁 ). Worse, Trump decides to bring in the military to force compliance.
brewens
(15,359 posts)booby trap the snack machines! They don't stand a chance.
Wednesdays
(20,308 posts)Against the U.S. military. I don't think those are very good odds of success.
But, as Usonian and Ocelot have pointed out above, they could wage guerilla warfare, which would hurt and kill a lot of innocent people. But it's a far cry from succeeding with any ultimate goals.
wnylib
(24,259 posts)Last edited Sat Sep 14, 2024, 09:57 AM - Edit history (1)
as geographical fighting between two defined regions with clearly defined armies fighting each other directly on a battlefield.
But civil war is defined as fighting between citizens within a country. It can take various forms and have various goals. An insurrection is a civil war. A fight over one section of a country seceding is a civil war. A physical battle between political parties for control of government is a civil war.
Regarding rural vs. urban fighting, that's what the Spanish Civil War (1933 to 1936) was. Urban areas were leftist who favored the newly established republic. Rural areas were right wing nationalists who supported a return to the monarchy.
In the US today, don't expect to see clearly defined armies fighting each other on an open battlefield. Instead, think of thousands of Timothy McVeighs across the country bombing government buildings. Think of the Michigan militia members who planned the kidnapping of Governor Whitmer.
Forget about a common belief that fighters would just be a few individuals on the fringes of society acting alone, like the guy who went after Nancy Pelosi at her home and instead encountered her husband and attacked him. Forget the idea that I've seen here on DU that fighters would just be a lunatic fringe like the "shaman" who showed up on J6 at the Capitol. Forget the idea that people who talk about a civil war against "the government" are just couch potatoes afraid of actual fighting, or physically unfit, disorganized "armchair generals" who would fold at the first shots fired.
Instead, consider the possibility of organized, strategically planned, urban guerrilla warfare by well armed, well trained former and current military and police who are experienced with weapons and warfare. Go to the Southern Poverty Law Center's website to see a map of militias and hate groups in the country. There are several dozens across the nation. They claim a variety of goals and motives for their existence, but they share some things in common, i.e. hatred of certain groups of people, hatred of liberalism and liberal government, and the belief that a RW dictatorship (by Whites) would be better than a diverse liberal democracy.
Those groups are not unified and coordinated with each other, but could form coalitions with the right motivation. On at least one well known occasion several joined together for a "Unite the Right" demonstration in Charlottesville, NC.
But where would they get money to continue a sustained fight? One possibility is that they would just go about their daily lives as usual, holding jobs, living at home with spouses and children, and meet up occasionally for terroristic actions. The KKK operates that way.
But another possibility is a private, well trained and organized guerrilla army, funded by RW oligarchs who want to take control of government. I'm thinking of oligarchs who pour money into the MAGA movement, like Thiel who selected and pushed Vance to the top, just under Trump, and who is poised to take his place if/when Trump is too deteriorated to function. I'm thinking of people like the Mercers. Or the people who have bought SC justices like Clarence Thomas. Trump is just the public face of the MAGA movement. He's the vote getter for the agenda of RW oligarchs.
So, what are the chances that someone like Eric Prince or General Michael Flynn have recruited and trained people on strategic guerrilla tactics for taking over local, state, and federal government offices? What would they, or could they do? Kidnappings and assassinations of public figures? Taking hostages to make demands that would give them control? Attacking selected infrastructure, like power stations?
Kevin Roberts, head of the Heritage Foundation which developed Project 2025, has publicly said that they are bringing a revolution to the US which will be bloodless IF the left allows it. In other words, it will not be bloodless if we refuse to accept Project 2025. Either he is bluffing and trying to intimidate opponents of the RW agenda, or there are militant plans for a violent, forceful takeover if we resist the RW agenda.
Response to Palpatine (Original post)
wnylib This message was self-deleted by its author.