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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDon't let polls freak you
"Undecided voters haven't turned on her. They just need to hear more from her. The debate is an opportunity to start closing the deal." Sarah Longwell joins Sam Stein
elleng
(136,392 posts)They don't; I don't believe them.
2naSalit
(92,969 posts)LiberalFighter
(53,490 posts)Trying to confuse the viewers
Quixote1818
(30,392 posts)jujubeets
(80 posts)to string you along and keep traffic up for their advertisers.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,443 posts)but why they feel the need to share their doom & gloom with the rest of us is truly baffling.
Sugarcoated
(8,102 posts)Will watch this tomorrow
jimmy the one
(2,717 posts)I posted this on another thread, hope I do not break any house rules by reposting excerpts here.
Rasmussen is a crap poll, in both senses of the double entendre: c.r.a.p. stands for computer responsive automated polling, and the other sense is simply crap.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) field average (average of all polls) has a drop back period of about 18 days, whereas if the poll is older than 18 days it is not included in the field average of all polls. Rasmussen is a tracking poll over 3 days, current day kicks out the last day for the next poll. Rasmussen conducts its automated polling every weekday, and thus NEVER drops out of the RCP field average, it is included in every single RCP field poll.
Reputable polls such as Pew, Gallup, CBS ABC NBC, WSJ, Quinn, and even Fox, usually poll only once a month, and therefore are included in only about 18 days out of 30.
Respected Nate Silver's 538 polling (altho he no longer works there) for the past decade about, included rasmussen in their daily field average, but 'adjusted' rasmussen (anti-biasing) by subtracting 5 to 10 pts from right side. Thus if rasmussen hypothetically had trump ahead of hillary 50 - 40, a diff of 10 for trump, 538 poll would adjust it to 45 - 45 for a diff of zero instead of +10 trump.
Reputable polls could also be anti biased, sometimes 1 or 2 pts either way, but none was as bad as rasmussen that I saw.
538 no longer as of a year or so ago, includes rasmussen in their polls due their duplicitous polling. Rasmussen is also sneaky, since they undercut biden's approval early on when he was +55%, but once he went underwater rasmussen did not have to pad so they even started to 'add' pts to biden so as to falsely give the impression 'biased? who me?'.
Well you can see that since RCP includes rasmussen's PADDED POLL in every single field avg poll with rasmussen's padded result for trump, while the more reputable pollsters drop out after awhile, the RCP field avg is also padded to the right, about 1 or 2 pts.
Pay little attention to trafalgar and rasmussen, they are not quality polls, not reputable. Real Clear politics knows they are doing this, since Real Clear Politics is also right leaning trying to appear not.
RCP is also known as 'Real Queer Politics', queer in the old sense, eh.
Survey monkey may fit this from the left, but I think morning consult may lean left but does not pad, same with fox polls.
FOX news shows on TV however, tend to be F.O.X. - that standing for Full Of X-crement.