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SunSeeker

(53,897 posts)
Sat Sep 7, 2024, 02:11 AM Sep 2024

Allan Lichtman, Prophet of Presidential Elections, Calls the Race for Harris.






Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag — at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.

Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.

So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html
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Allan Lichtman, Prophet of Presidential Elections, Calls the Race for Harris. (Original Post) SunSeeker Sep 2024 OP
I lean toward the Bulwark's assessment of Lichtman's keys pat_k Sep 2024 #1
Absolute BS! ClimateHawk Sep 2024 #2

pat_k

(10,879 posts)
1. I lean toward the Bulwark's assessment of Lichtman's keys
Sat Sep 7, 2024, 02:46 AM
Sep 2024

Lichtman’s “keys” are nothing more than parlor tricks and folkways, the political equivalent of wearing garlic to protect yourself from vampires.

ClimateHawk

(339 posts)
2. Absolute BS!
Sat Sep 7, 2024, 06:27 AM
Sep 2024

The keys have held since 1860. If you don’t agree with the keys system then develop your own prediction model. Why would anyone want to obsess over the polls and pundits on cable news? The only reason some get mad over Lichtman’s keys is because it makes the polls, pundits and cable chatter obselete. As Lichtman said it’s all meaningless and amounts to nothing more than sports commentary. To each their own.

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