In Ukraine War...Neither side is winning. Is it time to negotiate?

[Alexander Of Assyria]

Russia and Ukraine both reluctant to cede territory, but some Western allies are losing patience

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-endgame-analysis-1.6911021

"The history of negotiating with Vladimir Putin for the past 22 years has been a history of broken promises. The Russian state is brutally corrupt, increasingly attached to militarism and increasingly untrustworthy."

Still, the argument fills the pages of the respected Foreign Affairs magazine, where dueling headlines proclaim the conflict in Ukraine is an "Unwinnable War" and negotiations are the only realistic endgame, countered by the claim that "Russia Can Only Be Stopped On The Battlefield."

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/unwinnable-war-washington-endgame?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20230718


https://www.foreignaffairs.com/responses/should-america-push-ukraine-negotiate-russia-end-war#russia-can-be-stopped-only-on-the-battlefield

…..


…sober thought and analysis…which would you go for?

[rampartc]

1. we should be, and probably (i hope) are negotiating

i'm sure trump could use his legendary bargaining skill to surrender without informing zelensky.

[Lovie777]

2. Bullshit.................

[yardwork]

3. It seems to me that Russia is losing.

[FSogol]

4. Russia has lost, they are only extending the war since they think there is a chance Trumpy can win

and will either aid them or reduce aid to Ukraine.

[maxsolomon]

34. But it's hard to argue that Ukraine is winning.

All the fighting is on their territory. They have suffered terrible damage to cities, to infrastructure, to Ukrainian lives, to their economy. They are nowhere near reclaiming Donetsk & Luhansk on the battlefield, let alone Crimea.

Russia doesn't appear to be running out of weapons or cannon fodder. They've mined the entire front and aren't running out of mines, ever. They still control the Black Sea & (mostly) the air. Putin is not going to be deposed. They can continue a war of attrition far longer than Ukraine can.

Finlandization may be the best Ukraine can get. It is tragic.

[yardwork]

35. That's why I phrased my response as I did.

Ukraine has lost, and continues to lose, enormously. It's a miracle they've held out this long and well.

It makes me mad that Russia is getting away with this.

[Emile]

5. Who do you want to negotiate?

[Torchlight]

6. All Putin has to do is stand down and order his troops home.

At that point, only then may good-faith negotiations begin. War is certainly not unwinnable, except maybe from Moscow's perspective.

[sarcasmo]

7. The Ruble is tanking and Russia is losing.

[CanonRay]

15. Exactly

Russia would like nothing better that to pause.

[hlthe2b]

8. I am as sensitive to any here about Russian propaganda, but read the opinion piece--it touches on

Putin's non-trustworthy history and the analysis is not conservative-biased. Likewise, foreignaffairs.com is a nonpartisan site.

I believe Russia is losing, but I'm not basing that on firsthand knowledge, so I have no problem at least "hearing" from war correspondents for Canadian media or the same from trusted US sources.

I am as pro-Ukraine as it comes, but I'm also willing to read what I may not be ready for or want to consider.

That said, I want to ramp up support for Ukraine, not try to arm-twist them into failed negotiations.

[SalamanderSleeps]

9. Ukraine is giving it their all - we should do what we can to keep helping

and the MAGA-Putin Gang should keep their traitorous pie holes shut.

[Emrys]

10. Well, coming from you, I gained the impression you wanted Ukraine to surrender ages ago.

Your glib framing of a complex situation in an ongoing war as "Neither side is winning" says it all.

What do you suggest they negotiate?

Immunity for Putin and his henchmen for the massive war crimes they've committed and are still committing daily?

If so, you'd reward criminality on a grand scale.

Ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia?

Look at what it's done in the territory it's already temporarily holding and populations it's subjugated. Repression, torture, rape, mutilation, murder, crushing of dissidence, use of people as human shields, kidnapping of children, basically genocide.

Any prospect that Russia could stage a "peaceful" occupation of Ukraine was snuffed out by its conduct in Bucha and other conurbations.

So ceding would again reward wanton criminality and give no guarantees of a better life for anyone in the region, and would just postpone further hostilities against a better-prepared Russia.

And how would you enforce any settlement that might be negotiated?

Putin never saw a treaty he wasn't happy to flout. Tune in to the Russian airwaves on a daily basis, translated by the likes of Julia Davis, and you'll see that the Putin regime's agenda is bloodthirsty imperialism on a far grander scale than it's attempting currently.

More crucially, repeated opinion polls have shown no appetite for capitulation among Ukrainians themselves. How would you intend to impose any settlement that the population doesn't want, indeed fears?

[Alexander Of Assyria]

16. Impressions can be in error, difficult to give up.

[Emrys]

19. Impressions reinforced by repetition tend to prove accurate. n/t

[Kaleva]

11. Nothing preventing Putin from ordering a withdrawal

Don't need negotiations for that.

[marble falls]

12. Only if Putin negotiates in good faith, which so far he refuses to do. They are not at stalemate ...

... by a long shot.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

17. Putin can not be trusted, that's the quandary with negotiations,

[BannonsLiver]

40. So the response to that is to place the onus on the country that was invaded to negotiate a peace.

Yeah, that’s not how it works.

[Chainfire]

13. Ukraine is winning by not being overrun by their large neighbor. It is up to the Ukrainian

people and government to decide how to pursue or end the war. If the NATO allies are getting bored with the war, they need to step up the aide and give Putin something to fret about. Negotiating with Putin would be like negotiating with Trump; he will tell you what you want to hear and then ignore everything he promised. Smart alliances do not try to negotiate with war criminals.

[Clash City Rocker]

14. Ukraine negotiated with Russia in 1994

Ukraine surrendered their nuclear weapons. In return, Russia promised to never attack Ukraine. Then Russia attacked Ukraine, proving that Russia can’t be trusted to negotiate in good faith.

As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. If Ukraine gives land to Russia, Putin takes it, slaughters anyone in that region who doesn’t vow fidelity to Russia, repositions his troops and then attacks Ukraine again to get more. Zelensky isn’t that dumb.

[Wingus Dingus]

18. Negotiate what? How much of Ukraine Russia gets to keep? Fuck that shit.

[sarisataka]

20. The answer is right there

If the aggressor cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith, there is no reason to negotiate.

There example of a Korean type of ceasefire is a false comparison. The ceasefire line was essentially the prewar border. Do you see Putin pulling back to his border?

Still there are those who would once again give away another country's territory for "peace for our time".

[Sky Jewels]

21. No.

Enough with the bullshit appeasement of brutal invaders and destroyers of a sovereign nation. I’m so fucking sick of the Putin apologists.

[Efilroft Sul]

23. Came here to say just as much to find out you said it first.

The West needs to quit dragging its feet on giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to win this war faster.

[Sky Jewels]

26. Agree.

This is a scenario on par with Hitler's invasions of European countries in WWII.

The people on the "left" who talk about "negotiating" as if this were some arrangement both sides had voluntarily entered into just enrage me.

[Efilroft Sul]

27. When I see people on the left agreeing with the talking points from the right (and Russia)...

...something's very wrong. You don't take sides with the goddamned oppressor — you kick his ass.

[Sky Jewels]

29. Yep. It's like they're leftists from the 1950s and

they're reflexively sympathizing with the USSR over the oppressive "west."

I am about as liberal/progressive as they come (Bernie Sanders level), but I can see through bullshit propaganda, no matter the source. Even Bernie is for aiding Ukraine in its righteous fight against Putin's Russia.

[Sky Jewels]

30. Here's an article about a certain gullible element of the left getting hoodwinked.

https://www.salon.com/2023/07/29/how-russian-colonialism-took-the-western-anti-imperialist-left-for-a-ride/

[Efilroft Sul]

31. Thanks, Sky Jewels.

I clicked on the link and Cornell West's grimace half-scared the bejeezus out of me.

[Sky Jewels]

33. Ha ha, yes.

He has done a lot of good things. But it's a shame he's going to ultimately be hurting the progressive side with his third-party b.s. candidacy.

[maxsolomon]

37. What weapons is NATO holding out on?

They've got fighter jets, tanks, HIMARS, anti-missile systems, and as many artillery shells as we can produce.

Cruise Missiles?

[Efilroft Sul]

38. Missiles, yes.

The Biden administration and the German ministry of defense are waffling about sending their respective longer-range ATACMS and Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Bureaucrats in both countries are soiling themselves about Ukraine using those weapons to bring home the war to Russia and are looking into placing range restrictions on them.

[unc70]

39. F-16s are still on the needed list

Drones are helping, but control of the air is still lacking. Air superiority is still lacking

[Pompoy]

22. It should be up to Ukraine, nobody should be pressing them to negotiate.

In the meantime, provide as much help as possible.

[anamnua]

24. What's the weather like in Moscow? NT

[andym]

25. Stalemate does not necessarily create a reason to negotiate: WWI comes to mind

The WWI stalemate lasted for 5 years, before the war came to a close with the allies defeating the central powers. A negotiated peace was not possible because of the incompatible goals of the sides as is the case in Ukraine. Russia wants to annex Ukraine, either ASAP or in the near future. Ukraine wants to remain independent. These are incompatible goals and there is no possibility of successful negotiation.

[Initech]

28. Putin and Medvedev need to be bombed back to the stone ages.

And I think that's the only way we win this war. Otherwise they'll have their sights set on their next target.

[Fozzledick]

32. Would Czechoslovakia be enough to appease Putin?

How'd that work last time?

[Recycle_Guru]

36. no. fuck anyone who says negotiate

Ukraine and allies should bleed Russia until they get all land back including Crimea.