Lots of good news in new NBC poll

[bigtree]

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 4h
Lots of good news in this new @NBCNews poll:
- Biden leads Trump 49-45
- Trump's lead over DeSantis doubles
- Dems lead in Cong. Generic 48-46
- DeSantis' negatives dangerously high this early in the campaign

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC
Some key findings in new @NBCNews poll:
- Trump's lead over DeSantis doubles, from 46-31 to 51-22
- Biden leads Trump 49-45
- Biden leads w/women (55-38), 18-34 year olds (65-30), Latinos (66-26), Indies (47-33)

Good, strong numbers for Biden.


In this hypothetical rematch, Biden enjoys advantages among women (55%-38%), voters 18-34 (65%-30%), Latinos (66%-26%) and Black voters (73%-20%), as well as independents (47%-33%) and those who “somewhat” disapprove of Biden’s job as president (50%-39%).
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/trumps-gop-lead-grows-latest-indictment-poll-finds-rcna90420

[Mysterian]

1. I'm so old...

I remember when campaigning didn't start until the year of an election.

[Walleye]

2. I know I'm tired of it already.

[louis-t]

14. I remember when getting arrested twice in one year meant

an end to any political career.

[Mad_Machine76]

40. Even once would be enough

Let alone TWO impeachments and one Civil Judgement for sexual abuse, which is unprecedented! There have been Democrats who have resigned in disgrace for less. Remember Anthony Weiner? Al Franken?

[louis-t]

53. John Edwards dropped out when his affair became public.

[Deminpenn]

30. Some dude was just on with Katy Tur

talking about how Trump could win.

[True Blue American]

34. This is why my kids told me to turn off cable. They have to create drama!

They lie a lot!

[Mr.Bill]

31. I'm so old I remember

when a failed president sociopath who lost the election then got indicted for multiple felonies wouldn't think of running for president and if he did he would be polling at less than 1%.

[Lovie777]

3. I remember when the media was basically neutral..................

[ChazII]

13. I miss those days. n/t

[40RatRod]

17. That's because we had Walter Cronkite

HE SIGNED OFF AS: "And that's the way it is."

[calimary]

18. So do I. And I miss those days too.

Back before we had entire networks devoted to “opinion journalism.” Used to be there were just THE FACTS. Now, unfortunately, it’s about spinning those facts the way you want them to be, rather than simply what they are.

[VMA131Marine]

4. So basically

It’s old white men that are the problem… well, except for me.

[Captain Zero]

5. Maybe you and I need to ask other old white folks, 'WTF are you thinking?'

nt

[VMA131Marine]

6. They weren't thinking, obviously.

🤦🏻

[wnylib]

32. I said that once to a former friend who

became an Evangelical nut case. It was during the Obama years and she was eating up all the BS about him being Muslim and not a citizen, etc.

After listening to her BS for a few minutes, I interrupted her when she said, "Well, I think...." I cut her off at the word "think" and said, "That's the problem. You are not thinking."

She has not spoken to me since. I have no regrets.

[Celerity]

8. start with him

[emulatorloo]

7. Thanks for posting. K&R

[Takket]

9. Gee maybe deathsentence should say woke 5000 more times. It's working great for him

[ProfessorGAC]

36. He Does That Every Day!

It's gotta be pushing a half-millon times by now.
He can't open his mouth without saying it 10 times per thought.

[Midnight Writer]

10. Must be a hell of a lot of old white men voting

Biden leads women by 17%, voters 18-34 by 35%, Latinos by 40%, Black voters by 53% and independents by 14%, but...

But overall, only has a 4% lead.

How does that compute?

Is the pool of white male voters over 34 so large that it allows them to nearly overwhelm all of these other categories?

49-45 Biden lead is within the margin of error.

[triron]

11. Poll must be heavily skewed toward old white men.

[Marthe48]

23. Not just old white men

old white women, idiots of all ages :/

[stage left]

25. K&R

That's what I'm thinking. How did the women who came of age in the sixties get so dumb?

[wnylib]

33. Hey, I came of age in the 60s.

I was 10 in 1960 and 20 in 1970.

But, despite all the people who participated in various movements then like civil rights, women's rights, war protests, ecology, etc., there were others who were solid Nixon supporters and members of Young Republicans and other RW organizations. Even Hillary was a Young Republican until her college years.

[stage left]

54. I came of age in the sixties, too.

I'm also a white woman. I was 12 in 1960. And 20 in 1968. Not all white women. I live in SC where many of the white women are still strikingly stupid.

[whathehell]

51. Lol..They're not nearly as dumb as the men

in the same age group -- Check the numbers .

[stage left]

55. Yes, I know.

I'm from South Carolina and still live here. We have a lot of stupid people, both male and female. I think the numbers in this state are probably about equal. Maybe we don't have as many as Florida. I don't know. Trump was being welcomed today in a village close to me called Pickens. They expected 30, 000 people in 95 degree heat. There are stupid women here. Maybe not as many as in Florida or Texas, but enough.

[spooky3]

29. There are some, but this poll shows women in general

Are much more inclined toward Biden. Men in general are not.

[True Blue American]

35. And the young lean Democratic!

[senseandsensibility]

27. That was my thought too

Plus, although I don't doubt that tfg leads with older white men by a huge margin, he doesn't get all of them. Here in the blue states, he probably only gets 70-80%. That would cut into the numbers too.

[ProfessorGAC]

38. Same Thing I Thought

55% of 51% (women) is 28.05%. For the 18-34 group, 65% of roughly 20% of the population is 13%. Since those are half women, 6.5%
We're already at 34.5%. Biden only gets 14.5% of the other 65?
And, as we see in that one example, it's easy to double count. Black & Latino voters are both men & women.
A lot of extra angles need to be viewed for these numbers to make sense.
How all those slices add up to 49-45 is confounding. (Statistics pun intended.)

[Johonny]

12. Trump essentially has no room for growth

So it's basically a regional battle ground turnout election if he wins to nomination.

If he's convicted, it could be bad for down ticket as voters stay home. Early days, though

[leftyladyfrommo]

15. Schwarzenegger said that he doesn't see Trump

winning. He said his numbers aren't high enough to win without the undecided groups and he can't pull them.

[Escurumbele]

16. Great, but it is sad that the numbers are so close, where are people's brains?

trump and desantis numbers should be less than 10% combined...truly sad that our country's citizens are so fanatical. so ignorant, and so uninformed.

[calimary]

20. Thank Fox "News".

AND Newsmax.

AND OAN.

AND whatever other slanted opinion-based “media” piling on, too.

[Elessar Zappa]

19. His numbers among Latinos is really good news.

It looks like the Latino slide toward Republicans has been reversed.

[Johnny2X2X]

21. Headline for this news?

Trump's lead grows? Even in a poll he's losing to Biden in, they highlight as a positive trump poll.

[multigraincracker]

24. Trump leads with Republican voters only.

Independents swinging toward Biden. Don’t leave that out.

[Johnny2X2X]

26. I get that

They made the headline provacative in favor of Trump. Where as polls that have had Trump leading Biden recently were titled, "Trump leads Biden."

The GE is the headliner of this poll, not Trump vs DeSantis. But the media seems desperate to paint it that the indictments are helping Trump win in 2024.

[liberalla]

22. K & R!

[Chainfire]

28. Are you thinking that a Biden 4 point lead over Trump is a good thing?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. Better than behind? But can't post polls showing us behind

then they are fantasy and bullshit and right wing influenced, the list is endless

But find a favorable one and no one peeps about any of that. Where are they? All the poll naysayers?

[bigtree]

39. I'm certain it won't be anywhere near that close

...likely in the 8-10 point margin we saw in the run up to the last contest between the two, if Trump's the nominee.

If Trump is polling behind now, he's not going to surge ahead with each indictment or revelation. This may be a media horse race, but there isn't anyone who can tell you how he makes up the rest with independents fleeing him, and there are plenty of pollsters know Biden's numbers aren't on a precipice and will improve as the race consolidates, and as Trump racks up more indictments.

This isn't really a contest. It's a republican party in disarray and decline, and a solid Democratic electorate poised to keep Joe Biden in office.

No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen @NoLieWithBTC
A new poll shows Biden has massive support from many key groups in a matchup against Trump. Women support Biden over Trump 55% to 38%, 18-34 year-olds support Biden 65-30, Latinos support Biden 66-26, and independents support Biden 47-33.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

44. IOW it's ours to lose and we hope trump nominee. Good point that

his popularity won't get better. Age won't reverse. But the economy could get better. We could pull this off!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

45. Although I've seen trends. Trump dipped big time after J6

But then 6-7 mos later bounced right back. Timing of indictments everything. Hate were in this situation but we're here and have to make the best of it.

[WarGamer]

41. much better than the other polls out there right now.

[bigtree]

43. trending up

...with most of the economic fearmongering behind him.

And an improving, productive economy in place - one of the most consequential things people vote on.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

47. Wouldn't classify living with inflation as fear mongering but you're right

Forecasts good! Think that's great!

"Looking to 2024, we expect the volatility that dominated the US economy over the pandemic period to diminish. In the second half of 2024 we forecast that overall growth will return to more stable pre-pandemic rates, inflation will drift closer to 2 percent, and the Fed will bring rates back below 4 percent."

[Laura PourMeADrink]

46. Exactly! Delayed reaction to last indictment?

[liberalla]

42. K & R!

[lees1975]

48. Polls have been all over the place.

I actually heard a pollster admit, on a talk show podcast, that the daily "random" numbers are much more spread out than they've seen in the past, even at this point a year and a half before an election.

Numbers are one thing, the spin some pollsters put in the explanation is another.

A year and a half out, and only half of Republicans are saying they're supporting Trump? I would say that is good news for us, not so much for him. And interesting in this NBC poll, opposite one from Marist, that shows Biden's support among black voters at 89%, among Latinos at 72% and at 56% among independents.

I'm not convinced that Republicans will nominate Trump again. On the surface, and in public, they still have to act like they will, and maybe those in my circle of friends, which includes a couple of nights a week with 10 or 11 people in the club room of the senior condo building where I live, are unanimous in their opposition to his being the nominee. But I think, when it comes down to the primaries, the reason we are hearing all of this "just dispense with the primaries and give it to him" talk is because they know he is not likely to get it in the primaries. And I'm pretty close to betting on that now.

[triron]

49. If Biden leads with indies 48-33 ,no way his overall lead is only 4.

Come on NBC get real.

[uponit7771]

50. NICE !! Any polling in swing states? I know M$M loves national level stuff but its swing state polls

... that make the bigger difference.

tia

[bigtree]

52. he's ahead of Trump by the same low margin in the poll

...I remember Joe led swing states early and until the election last time around.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

56. excellent news