More votes to come. Obama likely to win by more than 3 points

[cthulu2016]

If Califonia does have 40% of the vote unrecorded at this point in time then I shall strike everything I have written today about national turn-out totals. Mea Culpa. I was relying on media reports this AM that I must assume were making the common error of conflating % of precincts and % of votes. 40% of Califonia is, indeed, a big number.

This (lengthy) piece is quite good, despite being from the RW rag the Examiner.

...

But what of the popular vote? According to the latest updates from the major networks some 118,729,700 votes have been cast for either Obama or Romney. It is estimated that Obama's current margin of victory over the former Massachusetts Governor stands at 2.44%. That figure is expected to increase as more recorded vote tallies come rolling in over the next few days and perhaps several weeks. The reason being that most of the states where there is a significant percentage of uncounted or unrecorded votes are from areas where Obama is leading. In Washington state for example where Obama has pulled in more than 55% of the vote, some 45% of the state is yet to be recorded. In California where Obama has a lead of 59-39% only 69% of the totals are in. Conversely a large pro-Romney state such as Texas has the Republican leading by a solid 57-41% margin but 96% of that state's votes have already been recorded.

Of course it's hard to say where exactly the remaining percentage of votes are coming from in each state. In most states, like Washington, where only 55% of ballots have been counted the remaining total is probably made up of a combination of provisional and absentee ballots along with certain counties not having finished or certified their results from Tuesday. That said the percentage of ballots recorded so far gives us a pretty good idea of the total number of votes cast in this election as well as the final margin of victory for President Obama.

•The results of more than eleven percent of ballots nationwide are still left to be certified and released. This includes the counting of more than 200,000 provisional and absentee ballots in Florida as of this morning.
•118,729,700 votes have been tallied so far between the two main candidates as of the posting of this article. Obama has won 60,810,997 and Romney has captured 57,918,703. Not included in that figure are around 1.8-million additional votes won by third-party and independent candidates.
•Obama's current lead over Romney is 2.44%. If that figure were to hold, which is extremely unlikely, it would be nearly identical to George W. Bush's 2004 reelection victory over Democratic candidate John Kerry (2.46%).
•Using the current percentage of votes obtained from each state by either candidate we can conclude that Obama and Romney will combine for another thirteen million more votes. Obama stands to win about 55% of that remaining total
•When all is said and done President Barack Obama is expected to win 67,924,682 to 63,726,025 for former Governor Mitt Romney. There should be about 133,724,450 total votes cast when the tallies from the smaller candidates are included. This will surpass the record setting total of 131,463,122 from 2008.
•Obama's final popular vote margin of victory over Romney is expected to be 3.14%. Through extrapolation methods we can predict that he will obtain 50.79% of the popular vote to 47.65% for his primary challenger. Other candidates will combine for around 1.55% of the total vote.

...

http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-likely-to-win-popular-vote-by-more-than-3

[still_one]

1. and I want the talking point to be it was a mandate, because it was

[all american girl]

2. Damn, that 47 karma is a bitch

[cleduc]

3. "we can predict that he will obtain 50.79% of the popular vote"

which is greater than

1980 Ronald Reagan 50.75%
2004 George W. Bush 50.73%
1976 Jimmy Carter 50.08%
1960 John F. Kennedy 49.72%
1948 Harry S. Truman 49.55%
1996 Bill Clinton 49.23%
2000 George W. Bush 47.87%
1968 Richard Nixon 43.42%
1992 Bill Clinton 43.01%
1860 Abraham Lincoln 39.65%
1824 John Quincy Adams 30.92%

It would tie him for 26th in 48 presidential elections since they started keeping track of the numbers (to the best of my knowledge).

The 67,924,682 votes projected for Obama is the second highest in US history, behind Obama's 69,499,428 in 2008. Those two vote totals exceed Ronald Reagan's by 39,000,000 votes and GW Bush by nearly 25,000,000.

Obama's 332 EV exceeds both GW Bush years (271 + 286 EV).

But the GOP is questioning whether Obama has a mandate ....

[LukeFL]

4. Is he surpassing this number?

[cleduc]

5. We still have a way to go in vote counts

I have him at 50.67% and he's passed GW Bush '04 in total votes. That tally from CNN has California at 81% reported. But it will be a couple of weeks at least, maybe December, before we'll get something close to the final tally.