Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012
Fordham University has published a ranking of the most accurate pollsters of the 2012 in terms of national trends, and (both) top spots were held by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, the North Carolina-based firm.
Director of Fordham's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy, Dr. Costas Panagopoulos, based the study on pre-election polling and compared it against the results from election day.
"For all the ridicule directed towards pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide vote shares for the two candidates," said Dr. Panagopoulos said in a statement. Here's the whole list:
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
more at link
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate
PPP poll for Daily Kos/SEIU was the most accurate of 2012
by kos
(snip)
Ha ha, look at Gallup way at the bottom, even below Rasmussen. But let's focus on the positive—PPP took top honors with a two-way tie for first place. Both their tracking poll and their weekly poll for Daily Kos/SEIU ended up with the same 50-48 margin. The final result? Obama 51.1-48.9—a 2.2-point margin.
PPP is a robo-pollster that doesn't call cell phones, which was supposedly a cardinal sin—particularly when their numbers weren't looking so hot for Obama post-first debate. But there's a reason we've worked with them the past year—because their track record is the best in the biz.
So thanks to PPP for making us look good, and thanks to SEIU for sponsoring our weekly State of the Nation poll for the past two years. It's been an awesome ride.
One last point—YouGov and Ipsos/Reuters were both internet polls. YouGov has now been pretty good two elections in a row. With cell phones becoming a bigger and bigger issue every year, it seems clear that the internet is the future of polling. I'm glad someone is figuring it out.
But let's be clear, you have to go down to number six on the list to get to someone who called cell phones. And Gallup called 50 percent cell phones and they were a laughingstock this cycle.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/07/1158157/-Most-accurate-national-popular-vote-pollsters
= new reply since forum marked as read
