Who will win the Alaska At Large Special Election?

[ColinC]

The election for Alaska's only congressional district comes down to Democrat Mary Peltola and batshit Sarah Palin. Who will win after second place votes are determined on Wednesday?

8 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Peltola (D)
	7 (88%)
	Palin (crazy)
	1 (13%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[getagrip_already]

1. I'd love to say Peltola,but she will need 50% of

The second choice votes of the other republican.

Tribalists will cast second choice ballots for Palin. Anti Palin votes will go d.

I'm not sure there are enough anti palins in the gop up in Alaska.

But I'm hopeful.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Huh?

Peltola has a 16k vote lead. Plain will need to win the second choice votes 2-1 at least. A lot of people probably didn’t even fill out a second choice.

[WarGamer]

5. Yeah, around 2:1... but you don't think that many GOP'ers voted D as a 2nd choice right?

You know they only break down Begich votes to count 2nd choice right?

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Yes.

His 52,000 votes. I’d imagine about 1/3 didn’t have a second choice. So if there’s 35K that do Palin needs to win them 26k to 9K to win.

It will be within a few thousand votes. For the record, I still think Palin wins, but it’s not assured.

[ColinC]

7. Given the toxicity between Begich and Palin during the campaign,

it isn't far fetched to think that the vast majority of Begich voters did not fill out a second choice. Peltola can win if most of Begich's voters did not fill out a second choice.

Palin is truly the underdog right now because she NEEDS Begich's voters to have chosen a second choice. Peltola, who campaigned for her opponents' second choice votes, does not.

[WarGamer]

8. Gonna be a photo finish then... would be a great win for Team Blue

Even if it's just 4 months

[ColinC]

9. Exactly.

But I do think that if Peltola is an incumbent in November, she could end up having a huge advantage given the motivations for Dems to turnout this year.

[WarGamer]

10. Alaska is pretty Red though... not Trumpy red but GOP red.

[ColinC]

11. True, but they are rather pro-choice

I think 63% or so identify as believing abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Which leads me to believe that if Peltola runs entirely on abortion, she could have a real shot against a pro life candidate.

[WarGamer]

12. I think most people understand it's NOW the State's call.

And if Alaska legislators restrict abortion it's their faults.

For MANY reasons... I don't think Alaska will heavily restrict abortions.

In fact... today Alaska has the same abortion laws as California.

And there's no push for abortion bans in Alaska.

[getagrip_already]

22. sorry, I was going on results available the day before...

They obviously changed since then.

[WarGamer]

4. Not quite 50% because she's ahead.... right?

[WarGamer]

3. This is the best I can understand it.

Peltola (D) 74,496
Palin (R) 58,149
Begich (R) 52,320



Since only the top 2 leaders in "first choice" proceed to the "second choice tabulation"...

That means that the Begich votes, all 52,320 of them are scanned for their 2nd choice vote.

That means that (rough math) XX% of the Begich voters (he's a R) would have had to choose the D as 2nd choice.

Let's say it's a 60/40 split meaning 40% of Begich voters chose the D as their 2nd choice

Caution rough math:

Peltola (D) 95k votes

Palin (R) 90k votes


Now lets say 70/30 split with 30% of Begich voters picking the D as their 2nd choice.

Peltola (D) 90k votes

Palin (R) 96k votes




This is why Palin is forecast as the winner by the betting websites, etc because the number of Republicans who voted for Begich and then picked the D as 2nd choice would be relatively small... 10-20% tops.

[Polybius]

14. Plus there will be a few Peltola voters that picked Palin as their second choice

Probably very few (5%?), but it still has to be accounted for.

[onenote]

21. I don't think second choice votes by pelota voters matter at this stage.

As I understand it, all that this stage involves is looking at the ballots cast for the third place finisher (Begich) and assigning them to the top two candidates based on the second choice on those ballots.

[getagrip_already]

23. I believe you are correct - otherwise someone would get 2 votes.....

I's just a second chance for those who voted for someone who was eliminated to have a vote that counts. So no secondsies for the top 2.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

13. Here is my rough math.

My first assumption in advance was that 40% of Begich votes would not indicate a second choice preference, being unwilling to vote for either Palin or for a Democrat (Peltola), or just plain not bothering.

If accurate, that would leave 31,329 votes to split.

My second operating assumption (in advance) was the vote would split 3/1 for Palin.

Begich, Nick REP 52,320 27.84%
Palin, Sarah REP 58,149 30.94%
Peltola, Mary S. DEM 74,496 39.64%

If these assumptions (which are just educated guesses on my part) held up Petola would pick up 7,848 and Palin 23,544.

That would give:

Peltola 74,496 + 7,848 = [82,344]
Palin 58,149 + 23,544 = [81,693]

So Peltola is a squeaker.

I did not "work backwards" with these assumptions. I also assumed a kind of worst case scenario that didn't fully figure the damage of the Roe reversal, the general trend towards Democrats, or the appeal of Mary Peltola.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Polybius]

16. What if 5% of Peltola voters pick Palin as their second choice?

I know it will be very few, but this still needs to be taken into account.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

17. No, since Peltola votes are not being redistributed that scenario is not relevant.

[Polybius]

15. I'm that one person that voted Palin here in this poll

Many people here are voting for who they want to win, but I'm a realist. It sucks but Palin will win.

[ColinC]

19. Usually DU is pretty realistic. I'm surprised nobody else so far made that choice

That being said, at this point, it is looking like it will be pretty close. Palin and Begich had a really toxic campaign against each other. Now Palin is depending on 2/3rds of Begich's voters to have chosen her as their second choice (as opposed to not making a second choice at all). Could be a long shot, especially considering Peltola went out of her way to make nice with her opponents and woo their voters for their second choice votes.

[Mr.Bill]

18. I think Palin is so love her/hate her

that if someone didn't pick her as first choice, they didn't pick her as second choice either.

[ColinC]

20. Same

But also her campaign seemed a bit all in or nothing. She didn't seem to work too hard to try and get Begich's second choice votes in the first place, which definitely is seeming to hurt her so far.