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WilliamPitt

(58,179 posts)
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:37 AM Nov 2012

Some really really really really bad news...for the Mittster.



===

Some pollsters have started to notice that independent voters, who until recently were leaning toward Mitt Romney, may be trickling back toward President Obama with just days until the election.

A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, perhaps because of how he has handled the federal response to Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama's best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier.

Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them.

Link: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/04/are_indies_coming_back_to_obama.html

Links to each of those polls available at ^^^this^^^ link.



On edit: sorry for the "clever" original headline. Old, bad habits die hard.

Me --->
49 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Some really really really really bad news...for the Mittster. (Original Post) WilliamPitt Nov 2012 OP
i hate leads like these ... cilla4progress Nov 2012 #1
I'm beginning to understand you veteran DU people... savebigbird Nov 2012 #2
OK, OK...I changed it. WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #3
Thank you! cilla4progress Nov 2012 #15
Welcome to DU, savebigbird! Yeah, some of us are incorrigible! };D calimary Nov 2012 #47
zogby was farthest outlier in final 08 poll.....15 polls: Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #4
that said, I fervently hope he's right Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #7
My dear Will... CaliforniaPeggy Nov 2012 #5
Sorry. WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #11
It's OK...........I was mostly kidding! CaliforniaPeggy Nov 2012 #31
Several of us here are old enough to be your mother! };D calimary Nov 2012 #48
Good news! Helen Reddy Nov 2012 #6
The romnocalypse SubgeniusHasSlack Nov 2012 #12
Not many of the 'Greatest Generation' will make it to 2016 formercia Nov 2012 #21
Who are they? LiberalElite Nov 2012 #26
Either way he will still be President Obama on Wednesday morning... mindfulNJ Nov 2012 #13
Oh yeah! Helen Reddy Nov 2012 #14
Thanks mindfulNJ Nov 2012 #16
To quote Mark Halperin: (almost) Well, its bad news for Joe Scarborough!!! n/t winstars Nov 2012 #8
Thank you BumRushDaShow Nov 2012 #9
I noticed. WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #10
You're forgiven. Auntie Bush Nov 2012 #18
That's not my head. WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #19
Glad I showed up too late to see that subject header lexw Nov 2012 #36
Interesting that if a newer DUer did the same thing people would call them filthy names. nt progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #41
I hope it keeps rolling FORWARD!! hue Nov 2012 #17
Independents suddenly breaking for Obama? shawn703 Nov 2012 #20
Independents tend to be disgruntled Repubs and/or Libertarians. progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #42
Couldn't get tickets humbled_opinion Nov 2012 #22
Florida konamakai13 Nov 2012 #23
Welcome to DU! WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #24
Colorado mountain grammy Nov 2012 #30
did the old title just say trailmonkee Nov 2012 #25
Yes. WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #28
In other words, you Mitt Rolled DU?!? Zorra Nov 2012 #40
ABSOLUTELY NOT. WilliamPitt Nov 2012 #46
HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!! WillyT Nov 2012 #27
This explains why Queen Ann was crying yesterday. sarcasmo Nov 2012 #29
I think she saw their final internal polling and knows they are going to lose maryellen99 Nov 2012 #34
Maybe Nate Silver gave her a call. sarcasmo Nov 2012 #35
the facts...........http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3445_162-57544827/taking-the-pulse-of-nate-silvers-n bocaoma Nov 2012 #32
if donquijoterocket Nov 2012 #38
This is wonderful news Nika Nov 2012 #33
We'll keep the presidency, and pick up seats in the House MannyGoldstein Nov 2012 #37
Hang in there, mountain grammy locks Nov 2012 #39
Things are looking pretty good Rosa Luxemburg Nov 2012 #43
I Take A Lot Of These Polls With A Grain Of Salt DallasNE Nov 2012 #44
Thanks for this. It's great news! juajen Nov 2012 #45
I'm so depressed... Blue Owl Nov 2012 #49

calimary

(81,115 posts)
47. Welcome to DU, savebigbird! Yeah, some of us are incorrigible! };D
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:37 PM
Nov 2012

An arresting bunch, we are! Love us anyway!

Glad you're here! We need you! It's down to hours now. Let's win this thing!!!!!!








Now get to work.

CaliforniaPeggy

(149,525 posts)
5. My dear Will...
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:49 AM
Nov 2012

I am your mother's age...

Please don't scare me like that!





And thank you for the good news, ya bastard!

calimary

(81,115 posts)
48. Several of us here are old enough to be your mother! };D
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:43 PM
Nov 2012

But as a writer, too, I know how stuff like that grabs people. It's good news! I like it when the bait-'n'-switch has the good part at the end. Very UN-wrongney-esque!

Thanks for posting the story, Will! Encouraging!!!


 

Helen Reddy

(998 posts)
6. Good news!
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:50 AM
Nov 2012

I have said for months now (ad nauseum) President Obama will win by double digits. This "close" election is a crock.

Say it with me on Wednesday morning: ***President Obama***

 

SubgeniusHasSlack

(276 posts)
12. The romnocalypse
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:04 PM
Nov 2012

will destroy the republickcon party, leaving only the tiny remnant of moderate, bipartisan republickcons to survive and be relevant.

formercia

(18,479 posts)
21. Not many of the 'Greatest Generation' will make it to 2016
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:38 PM
Nov 2012

Look at the Demographics and all of the young people flocking to Obama.

This is the Election to bury the Troglodytes in Anvils, once and for all Time.

shawn703

(2,702 posts)
20. Independents suddenly breaking for Obama?
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:34 PM
Nov 2012

Or have they always been in Obama's corner and with the "horse race" coming to a close the polls start to need to tell the truth to maintain credibility after the election?

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)
42. Independents tend to be disgruntled Repubs and/or Libertarians.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:54 PM
Nov 2012

So this is a very good thing. One of the reasons I always felt the pollsters were cooking the numbers is by oversampling Independents, which tend to be right leaning. They would give them 1/3 of the poll, even tho they aren't 1/3 of the voters. But the Independents breaking for the President is very good news, and is what pushed him to victory in 2008. So this is good news..

humbled_opinion

(4,423 posts)
22. Couldn't get tickets
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:40 PM
Nov 2012

for McCormick Place but we are driving up to Chicago tomorrow night and staying over for the festivities and celebration on Tuesday night..... So excited... I couldn't go in 08 but planned vacation this year.... Lovin it...

konamakai13

(2 posts)
23. Florida
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:40 PM
Nov 2012

Obama may win the election but I'll bet Mitt wins Florida. As a Florida resident in the Tampa Bay area, all that we see when we are out and about are Romney signs. Republican signs everywhere. It's depressing. There was just this feeling back in '08 that we in Florida seemed to be united in thoughtful change. Now I feel like everyone has reverted back and I am alone. I was proud to live in a blue state but I fear that we will go red. Yuck!

mountain grammy

(26,598 posts)
30. Colorado
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:52 PM
Nov 2012

I have the same concerns here. In the redneck county where I live, I expect to see more Rmoney signs, but in Denver it appears to be even.. very disturbing. My husband says Obama signs are constantly stolen. Hope he's right.

 

WilliamPitt

(58,179 posts)
28. Yes.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:47 PM
Nov 2012

I suck.

On edit: It said "Some really really really really bad news..." with the dot dot dot, and then "For Mitt" in the post. I thought the dot dot dot was enough to announce the sarcasm. I was wrong.

maryellen99

(3,785 posts)
34. I think she saw their final internal polling and knows they are going to lose
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:26 PM
Nov 2012

the Carter's knew they lost the 1980 election the final weekend when they saw the internal polling and Bush 41 broke down on AF1 when he saw his polling.

bocaoma

(23 posts)
32. the facts...........http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3445_162-57544827/taking-the-pulse-of-nate-silvers-n
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:10 PM
Nov 2012

if i hear brian williams tell me this race is a dead heat one more time, i'm gonna puke!

donquijoterocket

(488 posts)
38. if
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:35 PM
Nov 2012

you feel that's inevitable track down B. Williams and regurgitate on him at least on his shoes.He's looking out for his job .They've got to have something to "report" on, even if,like Faux Noise, they have to imagine the most of it.I've yet to have a winger, or anybody, tell me which of the handful of mega-corporations, some multinational that own or control the majority of media are liberal and why.

 

MannyGoldstein

(34,589 posts)
37. We'll keep the presidency, and pick up seats in the House
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:34 PM
Nov 2012

We'll have a majority in the Senate, but still not 60 votes.

We'll see what Reid does to fix the disastrous filibuster situation - although I personally think the Democrats *like* the fact that they can't do anything. We'll see... hopefully I'm wrong...

DallasNE

(7,402 posts)
44. I Take A Lot Of These Polls With A Grain Of Salt
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:15 PM
Nov 2012

First, I don't believe we have wild swings like this this late in a campaign. Plus, they are not supported in the overall numbers, i.e., a 10 point move in independents would swing the overall number by more than 2 points.

Earlier we were seeing polls showing Obama with a 17 point lead with women, who are a majority of voters, but only a 3 point overall lead. Then we saw a poll that said Romney and Obama were even with women but at that time the overall swing was only 5 points.

Is it because the sampling size is too small or is it MSM skewing the results to support their damn horserace desire. Regardless, they provide plenty of reasons to take these things with a grain of salt.

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