HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Nate Silver: The Politica...

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 03:23 PM

Nate Silver: The Political Environment Might Be Improving For Democrats

As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “toss-up.” But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55 percent. That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40 percent in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.1


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-political-environment-might-be-improving-for-democrats/

7 replies, 998 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver: The Political Environment Might Be Improving For Democrats (Original post)
TheProle Aug 3 OP
rockfordfile Aug 3 #1
PortTack Aug 3 #2
wryter2000 Aug 3 #3
Johnny2X2X Aug 3 #4
Sky Jewels Aug 3 #5
JustAnotherGen Aug 3 #6
KPN Aug 3 #7

Response to TheProle (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 03:27 PM

1. Golden State Warriors won the NBA title. Those bozos gave them practically zero chance

538 with zero credibility.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to rockfordfile (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 03:31 PM

2. Oh no kidding! They were wrong on the last 3 election cycles and instead of changing their

Methodology, they’ve doubled down on how they weren’t that far off! No better than a coin toss!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TheProle (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 03:33 PM

3. Ya think, Nate?

this pretty much says nothing except the obvious.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TheProle (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 03:33 PM

4. This article is from last week

What happened last night will make Nate's and many other models obsolete.

Currently the Senate is 58-42 for Dem control on 538, House still 80-20 for Rep control, but that's been moving.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TheProle (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 03:58 PM

5. No Shit, Silverlock.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TheProle (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 04:12 PM

6. He doesn't really know

I can't take him seriously anymore.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 3, 2022, 04:48 PM

7. Yeah, he/538 had a couple of great national election projections

a while back, but has been slipping lately.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread