Citizen's United Poll of Ohio may not be entirely... um... Reliable

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 03:47 PM - Edit history (2)

One thing I wonder about commissioned one-shot polls... if they get the wrong result do you simply not release them?

This poll does show an astonishing favorability edge for Romney over Obama... far out of line with all other polling.

Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely General Election voters in Ohio regarding the November election. The survey included 1,281 respondents and was conducted Oct. 30-31, 2012. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

That is a very large sample and thus very low MOE... but a sample of whom? Ohhh.... telephone survey. That a key word, as opposed to "interviews." Robocall. That also explains that large sample in a short time-frame. No cell phones. No call-backs. So it's how Rasmussen conducts polls, but perhaps with even less corrective weighting than Rasmussen. The releases don't say.

http://www.wenzelstrategies.com/blog/polls/

For comparion, here is the methodology of a high quality poll: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021680534

This afternoon Citizens United released a poll it commissioned from the GOP pollster Wenzel Strategies. It has Romney up by 3 in Ohio. You’ll note it pushed Ohio back into the Toss Up column on our scoreboard. This is simply our methodology. We include partisan pollsters, as long as basic internal demographics are within reasonable bounds and certain details about the poll are released.

But this poll doesn’t strike me as having much credibility. Here’s why.

No one credible poll shows this kind of margin or any margin for Romney in Ohio. Also notable, the PollTracker Average shows currently that Romney has a net .2% favorability rating in Ohio. The Wenzel poll says he has a net 22% favorability. Neither Romney or Obama have ever had that kind of favorability in Ohio or anywhere else in the country.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/romney_on_fire_ohio.php?ref=fpblg

[cthulu2016]

1. .

[mzmolly]

2. "Citizens United?"

In the polling business now? Ugh. That's a scary though for obvious (future narrative related) reasons.